Hungarian Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Hungaroring Race
The 11th round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest, where Max Verstappen will stand a chance of claiming his second victory of the year.
After exceeding expectations in the four races between Canada and Britain, Red Bull are expected to rediscover their best form at the Hungaroring, a circuit where the four-time world champions have been traditionally strong.
With the RB12 car set to lead the way on the track's 14 twists and turns, Verstappen and team-mate Daniel Ricciardo should be able to fight Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg on almost equal ground.
With a look at a surprise podium finisher and more misery for Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel and Renault's Kevin Magnussen, here are our predictions for the Hungarian GP.
Max Verstappen Will Win from the 2nd Row of the Grid
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After seizing their chance in Spain and coming within a half-decent pit stop of another victory in Monaco, Red Bull were expected to tumble back into the obscurity of the lower points positions as 2016 sped toward its halfway stage.
With a large emphasis on engine power, the four races between the Canadian and British grands prix were supposed to resemble their most difficult period of the year, a monthlong phase to simply survive before the summer break.
But a record of five top-five finishes, including two podiums, was the sign of a team operating at its absolute peak.
And after that spell of damage limitation, Red Bull are ready to strike again.
With the Hungarian GP favouring well-balanced, high-downforce machinery, the RB12 chassis may enter a race as the car to beat for the first time since Monte Carlo, with Ricciardo and Verstappen having the ideal tool to take on the all-conquering Mercedes drivers.
Despite Ricciardo's previous record in Hungary, where he won in changeable conditions in 2014, it is Verstappen, with the momentum and confidence of his two consecutive second-place finishes at Spielberg and Silverstone behind him, who will be the driver to watch this weekend.
As noted by F1 journalist Peter Windsor, the 18-year-old is the closest existing driver to Hamilton—a Budapest specialist—in terms of his manipulative style, with both taking short corners and having a "phenomenal" feel "for the right rotation moment."
Like Hamilton, a racer's racer if ever there was one, Verstappen will appreciate the challenge of the Hungaroring and its knack of replicating the thrill of a go-kart track, as he has already discussed in the buildup to the grand prix, per the official F1 website.
Hamilton and Rosberg may secure yet another front-row lockout for Mercedes, and Verstappen might even qualify behind Ricciardo for the sixth time in seven races since his arrival at Red Bull.
But the boy wonder will leave the Hungarian GP with a second career victory to his name on Sunday evening.
Lewis Hamilton Will Retire After Pushing Nico Rosberg Wide at Turn 2
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When Rosberg was penalised for shoving his team-mate off track on the final lap of the Austrian GP, many an F1 enthusiast questioned why Hamilton is never punished for committing similar offences.
Why, they asked, did Hamilton get away with pushing Rosberg wide at the start of last year's Japanese GP? And just a few weeks later at the Circuit of the Americas?
And why was it that the stewards didn't even bother investigating their collision at Turn 1 in Canada earlier this season, when Hamilton's front-right tyre collided with Rosberg's front-left?
The answer is clear.
While Rosberg's move at the Red Bull Ring was a desperate attempt to take out his closest rival, Hamilton has perfected the art of dressing up instances of so-called dirty driving as normal racing incidents, doing enough to ease his competitor aside without ever making it appear blatant.
Although he should know better and avoid giving his team-mate an excuse to push him wide, those incidents have been a source of much frustration for Rosberg in recent years, and he may be calling for yet more clear-the-air talks this weekend.
After Hamilton secures his sixth Hungarian GP pole position, Rosberg will hassle his team-mate at the first corner and try his luck around the outside of the Turn 2 hairpin—the classic Budapest pass—only for Hamilton to push him even wider than he did at the end of the 2014 race.
That will condemn the German to a Montreal-style recovery through the field, and it would normally be enough for Hamilton to be left with a simple route to victory.
But at a time when he has huge concerns over the life expectancy of his engines—team boss Toto Wolff has suggested the next two races will determine whether the Hamilton will incur grid penalties later this year, per Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble—Hamilton will retire from the lead with a powertrain issue.
The demise of both Mercedes drivers will allow a familiar face to make a welcome return to the podium.
Fernando Alonso Will End McLaren-Honda's Long Wait for a Podium
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Do we hear laughter coming from the back row?
Sure, the prospect of a team that has scored points in just 10 of the last 29 races suddenly popping up on the podium may seem strange, especially when near-perfect weather conditions are expected throughout the weekend.
But Hungary is the one place on the F1 calendar where strange things tend to happen.
Fernando Alonso, who claimed the first victory of his career in Budapest 13 years ago, knows that more than most, having lost a near-certain win to a dodgy wheelnut in '06 before coming within two laps of rescuing the unsightly F14-T from becoming the first winless Ferrari in 20 years in 2014.
And lest we forget, Alonso stayed out of trouble to secure what remains McLaren's equal-best finish of their latest Honda-powered era with fifth place in last year's race, 24 hours after pushing his car back to the garage after its latest technical problem.
As with Red Bull, the layout of the Hungaroring should conceal McLaren's lingering straight-line speed shortcomings, placing an emphasis on Alonso and team-mate Jenson Button to attack its many twists and turns.
A best dry-weather qualifying results in two years should be their minimum target, but if the race descends into chaos for a third consecutive year, a podium finish could be within reach.
Alonso was mortified by McLaren's slack strategy calls at Silverstone; he will not allow another opportunity to pass him by this time.
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Sebastian Vettel's Title Hopes Will End with Another Gearbox Failure
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In truth, Ferrari's realistic hopes of winning the 2016 world championship ended several months ago, around the time Daniil Kvyat sent Vettel spinning into the Turn 3 crash barrier on the opening lap of the Russian GP.
But it is only now that they are prepared to admit it.
"After Hungary we cannot fool around any more," team principal Maurizio Arrivabene recently explained, per Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble. "After that [race], we will understand what chances there are and where we are—and I believe that we cannot fail."
Ferrari are clearly treating the Hungarian GP as a must-win race, the weekend when their season will either begin or come to a crushing end.
The problem is that the Prancing Horse will enter the race as F1's third-best team after enduring their most humiliating event in two years at Silverstone, where Vettel could only finish ninth after suffering two gearbox failures in less than 24 hours.
Despite the four-time world champion incurring five-place gearbox penalties in the last two grands prix, Arrivabene has denied Ferrari have a fundamental problem with their transmission, suggesting the repeat issues are related to the materials used and are not the symptom of a design flaw, per Noble.
He did, however, admit that the frailties first emerged as long ago as May's Spanish GP, with the team seemingly fortunate to avoid a midrace failure over the last two months.
That will change at the Hungaroring, where yet another gearbox issue will put Vettel out of his misery and put his pursuit of a fifth title on hold until 2017.
Kevin Magnussen Will Be Penalised for an Illegal Overtake at Turn 4
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Turns out McLaren may have been right about Magnussen all along.
F1 let out a gasp of horror when the youngster was released by the team toward the end of 2015, with chairman Ron Dennis explaining how Magnussen—a driver who secured a podium finish on his F1 debut—simply didn't "perform as he should have done," per Sky Sports' Mike Wise.
When Renault caught Magnussen in a safety net in early February, signing him to replace Pastor Maldonado, the Enstone-based team were praised for saving F1 from itself and preventing another potential world champion from fading away without a trace.
Yet Magnussen has done little to suggest he will become the driver so many believe he will.
Of course, behind the wheel of an R.S.16 car lacking power and downforce, there is only so much he can do in the transitional year that is 2016, and beating rookie team-mate Jolyon Palmer on a regular basis has seen Magnussen meet the minimum requirement.
But the 23-year-old has also shown signs that he has failed to learn from the mistakes and eradicate the bad habits that ultimately cost him a full-time McLaren seat in December 2014.
His weaving in front of Manor's Pascal Wehrlein in Austria—for which he was handed a five-second time penalty—was the latest in a line of avoidable incidents in wheel-to-wheel combat, and Magnussen will be forced to learn another harsh lesson in Hungary.
The short stretch on the exit of Turn 3 offers the drivers an opportunity to draw alongside their competitors and try an ambitious overtaking manoeuvre around the outside of the uphill, sharp left-hander of Turn 4.
Any move at that part of the track requires careful judgement to avoid the same fate as Romain Grosjean, who received a drive-through penalty for exceeding track limits while passing Felipe Massa in the 2013 race.
Like Team Enstone's last rough diamond, Magnussen—at a time the stewards are taking a zero-tolerance approach with track limits—will be too brave for his own good at Turn 4 and pay the price.
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