The Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 20: Holm vs. Shevchenko
The UFC returns to Fox on Saturday, July 23 in Chicago with a decent slate of fights.
In the main event, former bantamweight champion Holly Holm takes on Kyrgyzstan-born Valentina Shevchenko in a matchup of decorated strikers with serious implications for the title in a wide-open division. This will be Holm's first fight since dropping her title to Miesha Tate in March in a massive upset, but she can quickly re-establish herself as a top contender in the absence of Ronda Rousey.
The co-main event features a barnburner of a lightweight scrap between former Strikeforce champion and two-time UFC title challenger Gilbert Melendez and the fast-rising Edson Barboza.
The rest of the card has enough matchups to hold the viewer's interest. Promising heavyweight prospect Francis Ngannou graces the main card against the unknown Bojan Mihajlovic in a showcase fight, while Hawaiian strawweight Kailin Curran opens proceedings on Fox against veteran Felice Herrig.
There are a few other interesting fights scattered throughout the card.
The Fight Pass headliner between Alex Oliveira and James Moontasri should have outstanding action while it lasts. The early prelims on Fox feature an excellent prospect-veteran matchup between the rising Kamaru Usman and Alexander Yakovlev. The headliner to the preliminary card is an excellent bantamweight fight between Eddie Wineland and Frankie Saenz.
This is far from the UFC's best effort on Fox, but it still has enough intriguing fights to draw the dedicated viewer. Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Heayweights
Luis Henrique (8-2, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) vs. Dmitry Smolyakov (8-0; 0-0 UFC)
Henrique made his unsuccessful UFC debut against rising talent Francis Ngannou last December and looks to get back on track against Russia's Smolyakov in his second outing. This will be the 31-year-old Smolyakov's first outing in the promotion following eight fights against low-to-middling competition on the regional scene.
Henrique is well rounded, but he's at his best shooting explosive, technical takedowns and throwing brutal ground strikes from top position. He has power in his hands and some skill as a striker but is quite hittable on the feet. Smolyakov has a deep background in freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling to go along with quick, powerful southpaw boxing combinations and great killer instinct.
Prediction: This is a good matchup of talented heavyweights. Smolyakov is the more credentialed wrestler and a better combination striker, but if it goes to the ground it's Henrique's fight to lose. The pick is Henrique by knockout in the second round.
Featherweights
Jim Alers (13-2, 1 NC; 1-1, 1 NC UFC) vs. Jason Knight (13-2; 0-1 UFC)
Florida's Alers takes on Mississippi's Knight in a fun featherweight scrap. Alers was a touted prospect, but his results in the UFC have been mixed, as he suffered a knockout loss to Chas Skelly and followed that with a no-contest against Cole Miller. Knight came in on short notice against veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri and dropped a decision.
Alers is solid everywhere. He's a bit mechanical as a striker and has some defensive issues but melds his takedowns and smooth top game together nicely. Knight is tall for the division at 5'11" and puts that height to good use with a dangerous, attacking guard game. He's an abysmal wrestler, though, and while quick on the feet, he isn't particularly technical.
Prediction: This is Alers' fight to lose; he's a better striker and better wrestler, and he has the top game to do serious damage to Knight on the mat. The Floridian takes a clear decision.
Welterweights
Hector Urbina (17-9-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. George Sullivan (17-5, 1 NC; 3-2 UFC)
Low-level welterweights meet in a potentially entertaining matchup. Sullivan has alternated wins and losses in his last four and most recently fell to Alexander Yakovlev, while Urbina dropped a decision to Bartosz Fabinski in November.
Sullivan is big, strong and dangerous on the feet, where he pushes a quick pace. He's a bad defensive wrestler, though, and his grappling skills aren't particularly polished. Urbina is slow and plodding, but he's durable and dangerous on the feet. Like Sullivan, though, he has subpar takedown defense.
Prediction: This will feature back-and-forth action on the feet and on the ground, if not of a terribly technical flavor. The pick is Sullivan by decision.
James Moontasri (9-3; 2-2 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (13-4-1, 1 NC; 3-2 UFC)
Talented welterweights clash in the Fight Pass headliner. Brazil's Oliveira won three in a row in 2015 before falling to perennial contender Donald Cerrone on late notice in February, but he remains one of the more promising young fighters in the division. The American Moontasri is likewise a talent but has alternated wins and losses in four outings. He knocked out Anton Zafir last November.
Moontasri, who has world-class experience as a taekwondo competitor, is a pure striker. He throws brutal kicks and mixes in flashy jumping and spinning techniques, while strong takedown defense keeps him standing.
Oliveira is a bit awkward at range, though he packs serious power in his punches and kicks. He's better in the clinch, where his long limbs give him great leverage and control for knees and takedowns. While raw as a grappler, he has great instincts in transitions and excels at getting to the back.
Prediction: Unless Oliveira gets stuck in a kicking match with Moontasri, this is his fight to lose: He's a better wrestler, is much more dangerous in the clinch and should have an edge on the mat. The pick is Oliveira by decision in a fun fight.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Lightweights
Michel Prazeres (19-2; 3-2 UFC) vs. J.C. Cottrell (17-3; 0-0 UFC)
Oklahoma's Cottrell steps up on short notice to replace the injured Tony Martin against Brazil's Prazeres, who fights for the sixth time under the UFC banner. Cottrell has had a long career on the regional scene against middling to solid competition, though he lacks a signature win.
Prazeres is a grappler, plain and simple. He has some power in his strikes, but they serve mostly to bring him into the clinch to work body-lock takedowns or to set up a level change. On top, he's a blanket, though he can hit the occasional arm-triangle choke or move to the back.
Cottrell strings together competent combinations behind crisp footwork, though he has some flaws in his fundamentals, especially a tendency to bring his chin up high as he throws punches. He's better on the mat, with solid takedowns and a nice front headlock game.
Prediction: This is Prazeres' fight to lose. He should be able to keep it close on the feet, get into the clinch, work takedowns and use his substantial size advantage on the mat. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Kamaru Usman (7-1; 2-0 UFC) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (23-6-1; 2-2 UFC)
Usman, the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 21, gets a soft step up in competition against Russia's Yakovlev. The TUF veteran, a blue-chip prospect, has won both of his UFC outings, submitting Hayder Hassan and then taking a competitive decision from Leon Edwards last December. Yakovlev dropped his first two outings in the UFC but has since won two in a row, beating Gray Maynard and then George Sullivan in January.
Yakovlev is a tough veteran, but this is mostly a chance for Usman to show new skills and get cage time.
The core of Usman's game is his wrestling. He's quick, explosive and extremely strong, which shows in the authoritative finishes to his takedowns, but he also puts together smooth and technical chains against the fence. On the mat he throws vicious ground strikes, and while he's still a work in progress on the feet, his fundamentals and mechanics are well schooled.
A crafty veteran, Yakovlev has great size for the division at 6'1" and boasts well-rounded skills. He's an excellent defensive wrestler, though he's less skilled offensively. At striking range he throws a mixture of rangy kicks and surprisingly powerful punches. Volume is a problem, though.
Prediction: The major questions here are whether Yakovlev's takedown defense will hold up against a wrestler of Usman's caliber, and if it does, whether Usman's striking skills have progressed to the point where he can win a fight on the feet. Usman might struggle, but he should be able to get a takedown or two, and on the feet he should hang even. The pick is Usman by decision.
Featherweights
Darren Elkins (20-5; 10-4 UFC) vs. Godofredo Pepey (12-3; 4-3 UFC)
Brazilian TUF veteran Pepey takes on Indiana's Elkins in an under-the-radar featherweight matchup. Elkins has quietly put together a heck of a UFC career and has come into his own since moving to Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, winning his last two over Chas Skelly and Rob Whiteford. Pepey has won his last three, all inside the distance.
Elkins is a wrestler, first and foremost. He isn't an explosive takedown artist, but once he gets his hands on his opponent, whether in the clinch or on the mat, he's almost impossible to shake off. On the feet, he pushes a great pace and is durable, though he gets hit too much and has next to no finishing ability.
Pepey is all violence, all the time. He throws powerful punches and wild spinning and flying strikes on the feet and looks for explosive submissions on the ground, especially from the guard.
Prediction: This comes down to whether Elkins can avoid Pepey's dynamic finishing ability and grind out the Brazilian in the clinch and from top position. He should be able to, and the pick is Elkins by decision.
Bantamweights
Frankie Saenz (11-3; 3-1 UFC) vs. Eddie Wineland (21-11-1; 3-5 UFC)
Former title challenger Wineland returns to action against Arizona's Saenz in an excellent bantamweight scrap. Saenz won his first three in the promotion before falling short against Urijah Faber in December, while Wineland is in the midst of a brutal 1-3 run. He dropped a decision to Bryan Caraway last July and before that suffered a knockout loss to Johnny Eduardo.
Wineland badly needs a win here to stay relevant or possibly even to keep his slot in the UFC, while Saenz has more leeway.
Saenz was a wrestler at Arizona State and retains high-level takedown skills, but he prefers to utilize his background in a punishing clinch game replete with knees and slashing elbows. He's aggressive and throws hard punch-kick combinations as he pressures his opponent toward the fence.
Striking is Wineland's wheelhouse. The Indiana native likes to keep his hands low, moving his head while cutting angles and pivoting at range. He throws a sharp jab and a vicious right hand, mixing in the occasional kick for good measure. Strong takedown defense keeps him standing against all but the most skilled wrestlers.
Prediction: Age and wear seem to be catching up with Wineland after his long and productive career. If he looked a little less shopworn, his striking acumen and takedown defense would give him an edge here, but Saenz's aggression and especially his high output should give Wineland fits. Saenz takes a decision.
Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran
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Strawweights
Felice Herrig (10-6; 1-1 UFC) vs. Kailin Curran (4-2; 1-2 UFC)
Mid-tier strawweights open the Fox portion of the event as the veteran Herrig takes on Hawaiian prospect Curran in a solid matchup. Herrig has split her two UFC outings after her stint on TUF 20, submitting Lisa Ellis before falling to Paige VanZant in April 2015. Curran lost her debut to VanZant and followed that up with another loss to Alex Chambers but rebounded by choking out Emily Kagan last December.
Herrig is well rounded. She works behind a crisp jab and throws nice punch-kick combinations on the feet but lacks much in the way of power and doesn't work at a quick pace. The clinch is the strongest area of her game, where she melds knees and elbows with the occasional trip.
Most of Herrig's finishing ability comes on the mat. She passes well and has an active guard along with a nose for the submission, particularly the armbar.
Curran's game is mostly athleticism at this point, as she's raw in terms of skills but shows serious promise in every phase of the fight. Aggression and relentless offensive output define her, and she has shown real improvement in every fight.
On the feet, Curran pressures her opponent behind a steady stream of punching combinations and kicks. None of her shots carry serious power, but she has the right idea when it comes to throwing sequences of strikes and mixing up the location. The sheer rate at which she throws them is staggering, and she can drown opponents in volume.
The clinch is another strong suit. She's strong and understands the basics of control, but it's her combination of vicious knees and slick takedowns that's really notable.
There are good and bad aspects to Curran's grappling game. Her athleticism makes her a fantastic scrambler and helps her get to dominant positions quickly, but she struggles to work control for long stretches of time.
Betting Odds
Curran -120, Herrig +100
Prediction
This is a classic close matchup of the veteran and the prospect. Herrig is dangerous and durable enough to force Curran into a difficult fight, but it's also one the younger fighter should win if she has continued to make improvements. Aggression and pace should be the difference as Curran takes an increasingly wide decision.
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Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic
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Heavyweights
Francis Ngannou (7-1; 2-0 UFC) vs. Bojan Mihajlovic (10-3; 0-0 UFC)
Ngannou, a resident of France by way of Cameroon, makes his third appearance in the UFC against debuting Serbian Mihajlovic. The Cameroonian has yet to go the distance in his first two outings, finishing Luis Henrique in the second round and then savaging Curtis Blaydes' eye so badly that the doctor stopped the fight. Mihajlovic has beaten only middling competition on the European scene.
The UFC is building the promising Ngannou slowly, and this is essentially an opportunity for him to add to his highlight reel.
Ngannou is one of the most talented young heavyweights we've seen in recent years. He has an enormous frame, standing 6'4" with an 83-inch reach, and he backs that up with surprising speed and athleticism for such a big man. The power in his hands is substantial as well.
What makes Ngannou special, however, is the craft he improves from fight to fight and the intelligence he shows in the cage. He reacts and responds to what his opponent shows him and looks to exploit tendencies and mistakes.
Skill-wise, Ngannou is still raw but improving. On the feet, the Cameroonian works behind a hard jab, throws vicious straight punches and mixes in well-timed uppercuts to catch opponents who try to change levels. That's the meat of his game, and while basic, his speed and power make it effective.
Strong takedown defense keeps Ngannou standing, and he showcases excellent instincts for leverage and head position in the clinch. When taken down, he wastes no time before grabbing an underhook and scrambling back to his feet.
Mihajlovic is short for the division at only 5'11", but he fights long at range with a variety of snapping kicks. For the most part, however, his strikes serve only to bring him into the clinch, where he works a series of body-lock throws and trips.
The Serbian does his best work on top. He throws heavy ground strikes when he postures up and shows a good knowledge of control, though he isn't much for submissions.
Betting Odds
Ngannou -700, Mihajlovic +500
Prediction
This is Ngannou's fight to lose. He has enormous advantages in size, strength, athleticism and raw power to go along with the skills to use his height and reach to his advantage against the smaller fighter. Moreover, he has stuffed much better wrestlers than Mihajlovic in the past. Ngannou knocks out the Serb in the first round.
Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez
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Lightweights
Edson Barboza (17-4; 11-4 UFC) vs. Gilbert Melendez (22-5; 1-3 UFC)
The rising Barboza looks to cement himself as a member of the elite in the sport's deepest division when he takes on former longtime Strikeforce champion Melendez. Barboza has come into his own in recent years, raising his stock in a submission loss to Tony Ferguson in December and then notching the biggest win of his career over former lightweight kingpin Anthony Pettis in April.
Melendez is trending in the opposite direction. He is just 1-3 in the UFC and has lost two in a row, falling first to Pettis and then to Eddie Alvarez last June. To make matters worse, Melendez failed a drug test in the aftermath of the loss to Alvarez and has spent the last year on the sidelines.
For Barboza, this is an opportunity to plant his flag as a top 155-pounder, while Melendez has to win here to stave off irrelevance and irrevocable decline.
Barboza is a pure striker blessed with exceptional speed and athleticism. He came into the UFC with a vicious kicking arsenal, but over the years he has complemented those punishing shots with an increasingly slick boxing game courtesy of Mark Henry, who is best known for coaching Frankie Edgar and Eddie Alvarez.
In that vein, the jab has become the foundation of Barboza's game. He fires it constantly to both the head and the body, using it to gauge distance, score points and set a rhythm. The Brazilian excels at using it as he steps back to ward off a pressuring opponent.
If the jab is the basis of his approach, lightning-fast punching combinations are the real meat. He moves between the head and the body with speed and fluidity and packs real power. If there's a knock on these combinations, it's that they're a little too rote and practiced rather than organically responding to what his opponent shows him, but that's a minor issue.
Barboza is still capable of inflicting tremendous damage with his kicks, though he relies on them less than he used to. It only takes a few low kicks to leave his opponent with a limp, his left kick to the body is murderous and his spinning back kick is as effective as ever.
Tight footwork and great spatial awareness make Barboza difficult to pressure. While he struggled with getting backed up to the fence early in his career, he now excels at planting his feet, throwing a combination and then immediately pivoting to get out into open space.
That's the extent of Barboza's game. He's nearly impossible to take down and even harder to hold on the mat. It's not easy to hold him in the clinch either. The Brazilian's ability to stay off the fence is a massive aid to him here, as his footwork and command of distance make it hard to get in on his hips in the first place.
Melendez can do everything, though he's getting older and even in his prime wasn't an explosive athlete. On the feet, he too has an excellent jab that he pumps steadily to gauge the distance and timing before throwing it sharply. His right hand carries real pop, and he mixes it in with a sneaky elbow he likes to throw over the top from time to time.
There's nothing fancy about this striking arsenal, but it's effective. Melendez's footwork is tight and efficient, he understands distance and timing like a veteran and he can operate both moving forward and on the counter.
That versatility is really the key to Melendez's success. He can pressure or counter, stick and move or hang out in the pocket and exchange and win fights with wrestling or entirely on the feet.
While not an exceptional takedown artist, Melendez has a solid arsenal of chained singles and doubles, particularly against the fence. His takedown defense is excellent as well. On top, he's a ferocious ground striker and maintains strong control while passing to dominant positions, though submissions aren't his strongest suit.
Betting Odds
Barboza -225, Melendez +185
Prediction
Even without the failed drug test and Melendez's years of wear and tear, this would be a difficult matchup for the former Strikeforce champion. He'll surely try to pressure Barboza toward the fence and then work takedowns or the clinch, as he did to Anthony Pettis back in 2014, but the Brazilian's crisp footwork and ability to stick and move with hard punching combinations bode poorly for the slower-paced Melendez.
In that scenario, Barboza's speed, athleticism and high rate of offensive output should be enough to outscore the veteran. Barboza takes a clean decision.
Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko
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Main Event—Bantamweights
Holly Holm (10-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (12-2; 1-1 UFC)
Former champion Holm takes on decorated kickboxer Shevchenko in a compelling matchup at 135 pounds. Holm knocked out Ronda Rousey in one of the biggest upsets of 2015 or indeed any year but fell to Miesha Tate in the final frame of her first title defense. Shevchenko debuted in December with a win over perennial contender Sarah Kaufman but fell short against current champion Amanda Nunes in a close fight in March.
On paper, this is a great matchup of skilled and credentialed strikers and one with real relevance to a chaotic division that lacks a clear-cut hierarchy at the top. The winner will have a great claim on the next title shot, particularly if Rousey chooses not to return in the near future.
Distance management is the key to Holm's game. Everything the 5'8" southpaw does is designed to keep her opponent on the end of her reach, where she can slide in and out of her range, land a strike or two and then immediately retreat before her opponent can hit her.
The essential components of that distance-management game are footwork, kicks and the straight left.
Holm circles constantly, pivoting and slicing off angles to allow her to enter and exit without eating counters in return. She uses the entirety of the space of the cage to her advantage, forcing her opponent to chase and use energy to stay with her. It's nearly impossible to pin her next to the fence.
Front and especially side kicks, the longest-range strikes in any fighter's arsenal, force her opponent backward to a range where she can't be hit in return. Unlike most fighters who employ those techniques, Holm routinely throws them at the end of a punching combination, immediately telling her opponent to back off after a shorter-distance strike.
Round kicks come less frequently, but they're easily Holm's most damaging strike. Especially when she throws them to the head, they play in conjunction with her straight left, Holm's bread-and-butter punch. The left hand draws the opponent's hand out of position, and then the left kick loops around the glove to hit the side of the head.
Pace is a strong suit for Holm. Once she gets her rhythm and timing, she works fast, launching a steady stream of strikes. Her command of space prevents her opponent from keeping up, which allows Holm to pile up damage to the legs and body.
If she can't keep the fight at range, Holm is generally happy to dive forward into the clinch, where her height and long arms give her substantial leverage. This provides a safety blanket to avoid the pocket and exchanges of punches, where her reliance on angles and space to avoid strikes shows up as a real weakness.
Defensive wrestling is a strong suit. She knows how to keep her hips low, dig for underhooks and sprawl and use the fence to keep herself standing. If planted on the mat, she can scramble back to her feet with skill, but she has a tendency to give up her back.
That's essentially the extent of Holm's game. She can hit the occasional takedown, especially in the clinch, and has a basic understanding of offensive and defensive grappling, but she's a striker by trade.
Like Holm, striking is Shevchenko's wheelhouse, and like her opponent, the Kyrgyzstan native is a southpaw. The similarities end there. Where Holm's kinetic style involves darting around her opponent and moving constantly through the space of the cage, Shevchenko is all efficiency and restraint. Her footwork is crisp and restrained, and she never moves more than she has to.
Counters are the heart of Shevchenko's game. When her opponent throws, whether it's a punch or a kick, Shevchenko replies with a vicious punching combination that she punctuates with a hard round kick. The right hook and straight left are her money punches.
As befits someone with a deep background in muay thai, Shevchenko's clinch game is exceptional. Her double-collar tie is outstanding, and she transitions smoothly from there to frames and overhooks, all the while slamming home hard knees and slashing elbows.
A surprising takedown game complements her strikes in the clinch. Shevchenko boasts a slick arsenal of trips and throws from the body lock and excels at throwing her opponent off balance with a series of strikes before hitting the takedown.
On the mat, Shevchenko mostly looks to control from top position. She has a basic knowledge of passes and can land some strikes while hunting for the topside submission, but nobody will mistake her for a high-level grappler. From the bottom, she offers nothing except the ability to get back to her feet.
From a technical perspective, Shevchenko is a serious talent. The problems with her game lie in her lackadaisical approach and lack of offensive output.
She rarely leads at range and is content to work on the counter, but she's not a devastating puncher, which means she'll wait for minutes at a time to throw a few strikes that don't seriously harm her opponent. Shevchenko gives away rounds waiting for something to happen, even when it's obvious she's losing the fight. Against elite competition, this simply won't fly.
Betting Odds
Holm -325, Shevchenko +265
Prediction
This could be a slow fight as Holm moves and moves through the space of the cage, occasionally throwing a kick or two, while Shevchenko stares at her waiting for an opportunity to counter. It could also turn into a technical and quick-paced match between two exceptional strikers as Holm's consistent activity draws Shevchenko into something more like a firefight.
With five rounds to operate, we'll probably see a bit of both. The first round in particular could be a snoozefest, but as the fight wears on and both combatants get their timing and range, business will pick up.
In either scenario, the matchup favors Holm. She throws much more, and her evasiveness will make it difficult for Shevchenko to line up her counters. Outside the cage, Holm has a massive edge in coaching and game-planning, and in a five-round fight that counts for a great deal. The pick is Holm by decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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