Deontay Wilder vs. Chris Arreola: Preview and Prediction for Heavyweight Bout
On Saturday night in Birmingham, Alabama, WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder will make his fourth title defense, taking on two-time title challenger Chris Arreola. This will be Wilder's third defense in his home state.
Wilder and Arreola are both big punchers, with 66 knockouts between them. This could be an entertaining bout.
But it's unlikely to go the distance.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per BoxRec | Deontay Wilder | Chris Arreola |
| Record: | 36-0, 35 KOs | 36-4-1, 31 KOs |
| Height: | 6'7" | 6'3" |
| Length: | 83" | 76" |
| Weight: | About 220-230 lbs | About 235-245 lbs |
| Age: | 30 | 35 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Tuscaloosa, Alabama | Escondido, California |
| Rounds: | 99 | 193 |
While Chris Arreola's weight has usually been within the range given here for most of his major fights, he has tipped the scale at as much as 262 pounds over the past two years. Wilder's weight has been much more consistent.
With just 99 rounds in 36 fights, Wilder's bouts have averaged fewer than three rounds in duration.
Main Storylines
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Deontay Wilder is undefeated in 36 professional bouts and has knocked out 35 opponents. His undeniable punching power has excited American fans, who have waited years for a new heavyweight king to emerge.
But more than seven years into his professional career, the quality of Wilder's opposition has remained abysmal. The only top-10 fighter he has faced in his entire career is Bermane Stiverne, who he defeated by unanimous decision in January 2015, to capture the WBC belt.
For that reason, there was tremendous enthusiasm earlier this year for what was supposed to be a showdown in May between Wilder and Alexander Povetkin. It would have been, by far, the biggest challenge of Wilder's career.
But that bout fell apart at the last minute, when Povetkin tested positive for the banned substance meldonium. Instead, Wilder is facing Chris Arreola, an opponent who was beaten up twice and knocked out once by Stiverne.
This would have been a much more interesting fight three years ago, when Arreola was still a top-10 fighter. But since getting knocked out by Stiverne when they fought for the vacant WBC belt in May 2014, Arreola has been a clearly diminished fighter.
A year ago, Arreola fought to a 10-round draw with Fred Kassi. Kassi is, at best, a stepping-stone level fighter. He was knocked out by Amir Mansour in his last bout prior to facing Arreola and has lost to Dominic Breazeale and Hughie Fury since.
Last December, Arreola was knocked down by fringe contender Travis Kauffman but managed to escape with a contested split decision. That win was changed to a no contest after the fight, when Arreola tested positive for marijuana.
Arreola's title fights against Vitali Klitschko and Stiverne were both opportunities he earned in the ring. This shot is being handed to him, based on nothing more than lingering name recognition.
Strengths
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Deontay Wilder is a very good athlete with excellent length. He has solid technical boxing skills. But it's Wilder's punching power that makes him special.
Wilder can end a fight in less than a second with either hand.
Chris Arreola is one of the most experienced fighters in the heavyweight division. He has very good power and versatility. He can box when necessary and is an outstanding brawler.
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Weaknesses
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Deontay Wilder is built more like an NBA shooting guard than a heavyweight boxer. He's an impressive athletic specimen, but he's slender. He had some problems with Artur Szpilka's roughhousing style in his last fight.
It still remains to be seen if he has the legs and torso to withstand a big heavyweight punch.
Chris Arreola has been a professional for nearly 13 years and has been through some rough and brutal fights during that time, especially in recent years. He has struggled with conditioning throughout his career, but usually got by thanks to an iron chin and solid power.
But at this point, he's clearly a faded talent.
Deontay Wilder Will Win If...
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Deontay Wilder should be able to win this fight the same way he's won his others. He needs to take advantage of his length and keep Chris Arreola on the outside, in range for his big lead hook and straight right.
So Wider is going to need to establish his jab early in this fight and employ lateral movement to keep Arreola turning. If Arreola manages to fight his way inside, Wilder will need to be prepared to grab a clinch and slow down the action.
If Wilder can make Arreola desperate and get him to start lunging forward, the uppercut should be a very useful punch for him. But he needs to use it only at close range. If he throws it from too far outside, Arreola will have space to land a big overhand punch across the top.
Chris Arreola Will Win If...
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In order to have any chance of winning this fight, Chris Arreola is going to need to turn things rough and ugly. He's going to need to brawl.
But he's going to need to be an intelligent brawler. He has to use his jab to take control of the tempo of the fight and look to push Wilder backward.
If Arreola can consistently push Wilder onto his back foot, the challenger might be able to make things interesting. Arreola should double up the jab and then follow it with an overhand right.
When he gets into range, Arreola wants to hammer at Wilder's torso. When Wilder grabs a clinch, Arreola needs to muscle free an arm, so that he can continue to pound away at the champion.
Arreola definitely needs to be cautious in this fight. Giving Wilder the space to land a single big punch could spell disaster.
At the same time, he can't be overly cautious. He's got to be willing to roll the dice and let his hands go so he can hurt Wilder before Wilder has the chance to hurt him.
Prediction
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Two or three years ago, I would have been excited for this fight. When he was at his best, Chris Arreola had the sort of bruising style that might have made things difficult for Deontay Wilder.
But based on his last two fights, it's clear that Arreola is no longer at his best. At 35, he's a faded version of his old self.
A faded Arreola still has the potential to make this a very entertaining fight, at least for a little while. The challenger has never lacked for heart and spirit.
But Wilder has enough offensive skill to control the action. Arreola will have his moments early, but by the middle rounds, he will get desperate and open himself up for a bomb from Wilder. I don't see this fight making it past Round 7.
It's become discouraging to see Wilder face opponents who aren't even top-20 contenders. If his bout with Alexander Povetkin cannot be salvaged for later in the year, he needs to face somebody else in the top five, like the winner of Tyson Fury and Wladimir Klitschko, or Cuban star Luis Ortiz.
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