Dominant Jets D-Line Could Actually Hurt Mo Wilkerson's Future Value

When it comes to the defensive line for the New York Jets, the team truly suffers from an embarrassment of riches. Second-year pro Leonard Williams has the makings of a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Fourth-year pro Sheldon Richardson trailed only J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans among 3-4 ends at Pro Football Focus in 2014.

And Muhammad Wilkerson may well be better than both of them. One of the best in the NFL at what he does.

He's also a player in a unique situation. He's playing a franchise-tag (and thus contract) year on one of the league's most loaded fronts. Playing well in 2016 might hurt his future—depending on what Wilkerson wants that future to be.

Now, before anyone starts lighting torches or gathering pitchforks, let's get one thing clear right off the bat. This has nothing whatsoever to do with Wilkerson's ability as a football player. Over the past three years, Wilkerson has twice gone over 60 tackles and 10 sacks in a season. Two years ago, he was PFF's third-ranked 3-4 end, just behind Richardson. Last year, he was fifth.

Simply put, Wilkerson is probably the best 3-4 end not named Watt in all the NFL.

That ability is going to make Wilkerson a very wealthy man—this year's $15.7 million salary will look like peanuts. If he hits the open market, the six-year, $103 million deal Fletcher Cox just signed in Philadelphia could be the floor for negotiations.

The staggering size of Wilkerson's extension is only part of the reason there hasn't been much movement on a long-term deal. And make no mistake: There's been next to none. With less than a week to go before the deadline to sign franchised players long term, Dom Cosentino of NJ.com tweeted talks are nonexistent:

"

Deadline for Jets and Mo Wilkerson to reach a long-term deal is in 8 days. Per source, 2 sides still aren't talking: https://t.co/yld9SFysRV

— Dom Cosentino (@domcosentino) July 7, 2016"

It's not that hard to see why the Jets are doing what they are doing. With Richardson and Williams still on their rookie deals, the Jets don't have to decide yet whether to commit over $60 million in guaranteed money to Wilkerson. They can let him play out 2016 and see what happens.

This does not sit well with Wilkerson. In June, he told Brian Costello of the New York Post:

"

It’s shocking. It’s frustrating. Because I feel like I’ve earned it and I deserve it. It would be different if I was just a mediocre player. I feel like each and every week I’m dominating and it’s showing. The stats speak for themselves. Basically, what more do I need to do? You know what I mean?

Do I feel that they want me back? As of right now, no. I don’t feel like they want me. I’m a talented guy. Everybody knows that. I feel like they’re going to get the best they can out of me and just let me go. That’s how I feel. Do I like that feeling? No. I’m a New Jersey guy, born and raised and would love to raise my family here.

"

Wilkerson's future is just as cloudy as he is conflicted. Things could play out any number of ways depending on what kind of season he puts up in 2016.

If Wilkerson channels his anger, returns completely healthy and plays to his immense potential—well, let's put it this way. There are two 3-4 defensive ends in the National Football League with 70-tackle, 15-sack upside. One is Watt.

The other is Wilkerson.

The problem is that a season like that would also all but surely mean the end of Wilkerson's time in New Jersey. The Jets have already exercised the 2017 option year on Richardson's contract at about $8 million. If Richardson keeps his nose clean and plays the way he did the first three years of his career, he's probably headed down the same path as Wilkerson to Tagville in 2018.

At which point the Jets will have to start worrying about Williams' future.

It's the flip side of all the success the Jets have had drafting defensive linemen in recent years: figuring out how to pay them all in the salary-cap age.

A good (or great) year from Wilkerson, and next year we're talking about a $110 million contract with upward of $70 million in guarantees. This scenario all but surely winds up with Wilkerson in Chicago. Or Houston (a chill just went up my spine). Or wherever.

Re-sign Wilkerson then, and Richardson's a sure goner the following year. Then, when Williams comes due, it may also mean cutting Wilkerson himself (after spending a fortune) to free space for Williams' deal.

You just can't pay two defensive ends $17 million each per season, and if the Jets were thinking about doing so, Wilkerson's new deal would probably already be done.

No, the Jets stand a better chance of bringing Wilkerson back if his numbers look a little more like 2014's than 2015's. Not that he was any less effective as a player on a per-snap basis that year, but he missed three games and had only six sacks. There's quite a lot of difference in Watt numbers and Malik Jackson numbers, both on the stat sheet and the contract ledger.

And wouldn't you know it, here's where Richardson and Williams come in again.

Last year, Wilkerson played 907 snaps, per Pro Football Focus—the most of any DE on the team. Richardson played less than 600 after playing nearly 100 more than Wilkerson in 2014.

Now, I'm not going to sit here and say that head coach Todd Bowles will intentionally decrease Wilkerson's snaps for the purpose of contract negotiations. At least not as long as the Jets are anywhere near contention for a playoff spot.

But the Jets are in the unique position of being able to do so with players who are Pro Bowl-caliber defenders in their own right. And in that respect, it makes sense to decrease that gap in 2016, if only to keep all three linemen fresh.

Add in that Wilkerson's broken leg happened late last season, and you have another good reason to ease Wilkerson into things. Take full advantage of the depth the team has procured at the position.

Also, at some point, the team will want to take a good, long look at how Richardson and Williams perform together. Decision day's going to come whether the Jets want it to or not. They might as well make it an educated one.

It's no slight on Wilkerson as a player, and he will probably have a fine season, but the reasons he won't see another 900-plus-snap campaign keep stacking up. Fewer snaps mean fewer opportunities to rack up stats—and less stats could mean less money.

Less money that could mean the difference between Wilkerson leaving and staying—which may be what he wants, his anger aside.

That is, unless fewer snaps mean fresher ends, in which case quantity could win out over quality, and the Jets as a unit become the NFL's most feared front three—which could make holding the whole thing together that much harder in 2017.

About the only thing that isn't a variable in all this is Wilkerson's talent. That talent is going to get Wilkerson a huge payday, even if we don't yet know how big or where.

And maybe that's the takeaway here. The outside factors and variables, many though they may be, may not have as much impact on Wilkerson's future as one simple thing.

What he wants it to be.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.