College Basketball Stars Facing Unrealistic Expectations in 2016-17

The period between the NCAA tournament championship game and the start of the following season is filled with assessments and opinions about the coming college basketball season.

The hype builds about certain players or teams based on what they accomplished the previous season and what they might be able to achieve the next.

Over those six months expectations can grow, sometimes beyond what is reasonable. In some instances the level a player is expected to achieve is unrealistic. Sometimes the degree to which a player can carry a team to new heights is overestimated. 

We picked out 12 star players who are caught in the hype heading into the 2016-17 season. Three of the 12 have not even played a college game yet, but already they are considered stars laden with great expectations about what they can achieve as freshmen, either for themselves or for their team.

Lonzo Ball, UCLA

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There are two reasons why UCLA is among the Top 25 in virtually every early preseason rankings, despite finishing 15-17 last season, including a 6-12 Pac-12 record that put the Bruins in 10th place: Four of the five starters from last season return and the addition of freshman point guard Lonzo Ball.

Rated the No. 4 overall recruit by ESPN.com, Ball is expected to give the Bruins what it lacked last season: consistent point guard play.

The hype is considerable.

CBSSports.com placed the Bruins at No. 11 in its early preseason rankings, adding: "And wait till you see Lonzo Ball. He's a special talent that should make everybody in Westwood better."

While ranking UCLA No. 17 in his early preseason Top 25, Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com wrote, "Into this conflict comes top 2016 point guard Lonzo Ball, who, by all accounts, is so good he might single-handedly broker a lasting UCLA peace."

The Bruins are expected to challenge for a Pac-12 title and do well in the NCAA tournament, which, if accomplished, presumably would save Steve Alford's job. The Los Angeles Times noted in its postseason report that Alford's job was not in jeopardy following the 2015-16 season. "However," wrote Zach Helfand, "next season will be a critical one."

Last season, the Bruins suffered only their fourth losing season since 1948. A second straight losing season would not be received well.

The Bruins and their fans are banking on Ball to be the difference, which is a lot to ask of someone who has never played a college game, especially at the complex point guard spot.

E.C. Matthews, Rhode Island

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Rhode Island was picked to finish second in the Atlantic 10 last season, largely because it boasted two preseason all-conference players: E.C. Matthews and Hassan Martin. When Matthews suffered a torn ACL in the first game and was lost for the season, the Rams' season was ruined.

The Rams under coach Dan Hurley finished 17-15 overall and 7-7 in the conference, putting them in seventh place. Nonetheless, many early preseason 2016-17 rankings put Rhode Island in their Top 25. CBSSports.com placed the Rams at No. 15 and ESPN.com put Rhode Island at No. 21, suggesting the reason for the Rams' decline last season was Matthews' injury. Not only was Matthews' offense missed, but his defensive excellence was noticeably absent.

SI.com put the Rams at No. 25, and put its reasoning succinctly: "Dan Hurley's Rams will likely be the preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 thanks to the return of 6'5" junior guard E.C. Matthews, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL."

Martin is also back, but the emphasis is on Matthews' return. The assumption is that Matthews will be at least as good as he was in 2014-15, when he averaged 16.9 points and hit 41 percent of his three-point attempts.

However, a torn ACL is a serious injury, and it is difficult to determine for certain how a player will respond to rehabilitation. All indications are that Matthews will be ready for the 2016-17 season, per the Providence Journal's Jim Donaldson, but it seems unfair to expect a player coming off a torn ACL to carry a team to a conference title.

Phil Forte/Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State

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The Oklahoma State backcourt combination of Phil Forte and Jawun Evans is expected to produce big things in 2016-17. The fact that their absence last season seemed to have such an adverse effect served to underscore their importance.

Forte was a third-team all-Big 12 selection in 2015 and Oklahoma State's chief reason for hope in 2015-16. When he was lost for the season with an elbow injury sustained on Nov. 19, the Cowboys season was over almost before it started.

The one bright spot was Evans, who was named Big 12 freshman of the year. But Evans missed the final 10 games of the season with a shoulder injury that required surgery, according to the Tulsa World. The Cowboys finished 12-20 overall and 3-15 in the Big 12 while losing their final seven games of the season. They went 1-9 without Evans.

Travis Ford was fired as a result, and Forte was not sure whether he would return to Oklahoma State for his senior season until Brad Underwood was hired as Ford's replacement, as reported by John Helsley of the Oklahoman.

The addition of Underwood and the return of Forte and Evans provide hope for a dramatic improvement in 2016-17. Jon Rothstein of CBSSports.com lists the Cowboys as one of five teams on the rise. With the Big 12 losing nearly all of its star players from this past season, Forte and Evans have a chance to make a major impact on an Oklahoma State offense that ranked only 303rd nationally last season, averaging 66.5 points per game.

Even if we assume that both will be completely healthy by the start of the season, too much is being expected of this backcourt.

For one thing, making progress in the Big 12 is difficult, even if the conference is down a bit next season. Furthermore, the Cowboys still have shortcomings in the frontcourt, after ranking 232nd nationally in rebounding margin last season.

Forte is expected to be the team's top scorer now, but he has never had that role. It was not the case when Le'Bryan Nash was around in 2014-15 or when Marcus Smart and Markel Brown led the way in 2013-14. Forte is primarily a catch-and-shoot scorer, and he needs other scorers around him to make him effective.

Evans got most of his attention by scoring 42 points in a two-point loss to then-No. 2-ranked Oklahoma. However, he averaged a rather pedestrian 12.9 points for the season.

Grayson Allen, Duke

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For Grayson Allen to live up to expectations, he would need to win national player of the year and a national championship. That is a rather tough baseline.

Grayson was an Associated Press third-team All-American pick this past season, and he is the only one of the 15 choices on the first-, second- or third-team All-American teams returning to play college ball this season. Furthermore, Duke is a near-unanimous pick as the preseason No. 1 team.

Certainly, the addition of highly touted freshmen Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum, as well as the return of Amile Jefferson, have a lot to do with the high expectations for the Blue Devils. However, if Allen had turned pro, there would probably be some uncertainty about the preseason No. 1 team.

As it stands, ESPN.com, SI.com, NBCSports.com, CBSSports.com and USA Today all have the Blue Devils No. 1. In its assessment, USA Today said, "If high-flying guard Grayson Allen decides to stay in Durham instead of turn pro, the Blue Devils will easily have a Final Four-caliber team."

Well, he is staying in Durham, so the expectations for Duke and Allen are sky-high.

Allen averaged 21.6 points while hitting 41.7 percent of his three-point attempts last season. With his surrounding talent in 2016-17, he will probably be asked to share the ball more, probably lowering his scoring average. His shooting percentage dropped a bit late in the season, as he made at least half his field-goal attempts in only two of the final 13 games.

He also has developed a reputation as an annoying player. In fact, USA Today produced a list titled "The 13 most annoying things Grayson Allen has ever done." That will make opponents even more anxious to limit his effectiveness. 

The bottom line is that if Duke loses two in row or if Allen has one poor game, Allen is apt to be singled out as not meeting expectations.

Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin

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Nigel Hayes is the centerpiece of a Wisconsin team that is expected to challenge for a national championship. Expectations are high, to say the least.

ESPN.com placed the Badgers at No. 8 in its early preseason Top 25 and SI.com had Wisconsin at No. 7. USA Today put the Badgers at No. 17, but that was when it assumed Hayes would turn pro. The difference in USA Today's ranking indicates how much Hayes' presence is expected to mean.

It is easy to see why expectations are so high for the Badgers and Hayes. Wisconsin will return virtually the same roster that got the Badgers to the Sweet 16 this past season. When Hayes withdrew his name from the NBA draft, the Badgers got an added boost from both a talent and experience standpoint.

Hayes was named to Sporting News' preseason first-team All-American squad last year, and was a first-team all-Big Ten selection at season's end.

However, a couple of issues suggest that expectations for the Badgers and Hayes' part in their anticipated success may be unrealistic.

From a team standpoint, the pressure of expectations quickly disappeared on last season's Badgers team, as they started the season 9-9, including 1-4 in the Big Ten after a loss to Northwestern. Wisconsin flew under the radar during most of a late-season run as it went 13-4 over its final 17 games, including a second-round NCAA tournament victory over No. 2-seeded Xavier. They rode a wave of momentum down the stretch.

However, the pressure will be present right from the start of Greg Gard's first full season as the Badgers' head coach. Any slip-up will be seen as a chink in the Badgers' armor.

The same goes for Hayes, whose shooting woes last season make the high expectations this season seem a little unrealistic. After hitting 49.7 percent of his field-goal attempts and 39.6 percent of his three-pointers in 2014-15, Hayes slipped dramatically to 36.8 percent field-goal shooting and 29.3 percent on threes this past season.

He slumped at the end of the season, averaging 9.8 points and 5.8 rebounds over the final four games, which included the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. He shot 20.4 percent from the field and 9.5 percent (2-of-21) on three-pointers in that span and was outplayed by teammate Ethan Happ, the Big Ten freshman of the year, who averaged 16.0 points and 8.8 rebounds over that four-game stretch.

Sporting News ranked Hayes No. 5 on its list of most impactful returning players. His play over the last few games last season suggests that impact may not be what the Badgers had in mind.

Monte Morris, Iowa State

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Iowa State point guard Monte Morris is listed as a preseason first-team All-American by NBCSports.com, and the Cyclones are expected to retain their position as a top-tier team in the tough Big 12. Both assertions will be tested.

Iowa State has reached the NCAA tournament each of the past five seasons, but its 10-8 conference mark last season in Steve Prohm's first year as head coach represented its worst Big 12 record since 2010-11. And the Cyclones will be without three starters from last season's team, including the versatile Georges Niang, a second-team Associated Press All-American.

Morris is expected to take Niang's place as the team's star and lead Iowa State to a high conference finish and an NCAA tournament berth. In the past Morris had the luxury of knowing several teammates could assume the scoring burden. That may not be the case this season.

Furthermore, last season the Cyclones were still running on the momentum built by previous coach Fred Hoiberg. Prohm has yet to prove he can maintain that high level.

The Cyclones' success is dependent on Morris having an outstanding all-around season, even better than his 2015-16 season when he averaged 13.8 points and 6.9 assists. Even if his numbers do improve, will Morris have enough support to get the Cyclones to the NCAA tournament? Is it fair to expect Morris to do so much with this team considering the pieces it lost? 

As Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register noted in May, "Expectations couldn't be higher for Morris during his final season."

Expecting Morris to carry this team may be asking too much.

Ivan Rabb, California

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California power forward/center Ivan Rabb was projected to be a lottery pick in the 2016 NBA draft, but turned out to be this year's highest-rated pro prospect to return for another college season, so says Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com. SI.com noted that it ranked Rabb as the nation's No. 5 recruit in 2015 and that he was ranked as the No. 12 pro prospect in its 2016 mock draft.

All of this suggests that the nimble and skilled 6'11" Rabb should be a dominant player as a sophomore, one able to lift Cal to a second straight NCAA tournament berth and perhaps a conference title.

Sporting News placed Rabb at No. 8 in its ranking of the most impactful players in the 2016-17 season, and NBCSports.com put him on its preseason first-team All-American squad. The latter claimed the absence of Tyrone Wallace and Jaylen Brown will mean the Cal offense will run through Rabb this season.

A few things need to be noted. It is difficult to believe that the loss of Wallace, a first-team all-conference selection in 2015, and Brown, a first-team all-Pac-12 pick this year and the No. 3 overall pick in the 2016 NBA draft, is going to make things easier for Cal or Rabb.

The strong perimeter game of returning senior Jabari Bird may help open the middle for Rabb to maneuver, but that may not be enough for Cal to match last season's third-place finish, when it tied with Arizona.

Furthermore, Rabb does not seem willing to take over a game. He looks more comfortable being a contributor to a team effort rather than an individual star. Perhaps his best game was a 19-point, 10-rebound effort in a victory over Utah. As Jeff Faraudo of the Bay Area News Group noted, Rabb "often has seemed an afterthought in the Cal offense, but his teammates encouraged his assertiveness against Utah and he scored in a variety of ways."

"He has that skill. That's nothing new to see that," Cal coach Cuonzo Martin said, according to the BearTalk blog. "We challenged him from the standpoint that we have to come to you with the ball."

It is worth remembering that Rabb averaged just 12.8 points last season, ranking fourth on the team in scoring, and did not make the 10-player all-conference first team.

Too often people equate the pro potential NBA scouts see in a player with the current talent level of that college player. They are not the same. It is unfair to expect Rabb to overwhelm opponents and carry Cal with individual talent and aggressiveness.

Bam Adebayo, Kentucky

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NBCSports.com's Rob Dauster, who placed incoming freshman Bam Adebayo on his preseason second-team All-American squad, probably stated it best: "Picking an All-American from Kentucky this season is tough. We're going to go with Bam, who is the safe pick and could end up averaging a double-double for the Wildcats."

The theory is that at least one member of Kentucky's outstanding incoming recruiting class will be an immediate star and good enough to take the Wildcats to a high national ranking.

Despite losing their top three scorers and six of the seven players who started 10 games or more last season, the Wildcats are ranked No. 2 in the early preseason rankings of NBCSports.com and CBSSports.com and No. 3 by ESPN.com and SI.com. That is because the Wildcats again had the No. 1-ranked recruiting class, according to ESPN.com.

Adebayo is the highest rated of the incoming Kentucky freshmen at No. 5, according to ESPN.com, so he figures to have the best chance to be this year's freshman star for Kentucky.

It seems to happen every year. From John Wall to Brandon Knight to Anthony Davis to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to Julius Randle to Karl-Anthony Towns to Jamal Murray, Kentucky under John Calipari always seems to have a freshman who carries the team into the national spotlight. That player then leaves after one year to be taken early in the first round of the NBA draft.

The trend is impossible to ignore, but it places unrealistic expectations on Abedayo and any of the other four highly rated incoming Kentucky freshmen.

Often those touted Kentucky freshmen pan out immediately, as was the case with Murray. However, there is also the example of Skal Labissiere, who was rated the nation's No. 1 recruit last year by Scout.com, ahead of Ben Simmons, and was named to the Southeastern Conference's preseason all-conference team. He ended up starting only half of Kentucky's games as a freshman, finishing sixth on the team in scoring at 6.6 points per game.

From a team standpoint, the 2012-13 Kentucky squad stands as an example that expectations don't always match the results. It had its share of freshmen stars and was ranked No. 3 in the preseason Associated Press poll but failed to make the NCAA tournament.

Adebayo might become an immediate star, and he might be the linchpin of a team that does well in the NCAA tournament. But at this point it is risky and perhaps unfair to assume both will happen.

Jalen Brunson, Villanova

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Jalen Brunson may not fit everyone's definition of a star, but he was a highly rated recruit in 2015 who was a starter on Villanova's national championship team this past season as a freshman.

This season he is expected to replace Ryan Arcidiacono as the team's point guard and floor leader with no interruption in the team's success. Despite the loss of Arcidiacono, SI.com and ESPN.com place Villanova at No. 2 in their early preseason rankings, while CBSSports.com has the Wildcats at No. 3 and NBCSports.com put them at No.4.

SI.com proclaims, "Freshman point guard Jalen Brunson is ready to assume the helm of the program." NBCSports.com notes the potential problem, but says, "Losing Ryan Arcidiacono's leadership is really going to hurt these Wildcats, but Brunson should be able to step into those shoes and have a major impact as the primary ball-handler immediately."

It's a lot to ask.

Arcidiacono and Brunson theoretically shared the point guard position last season, but in the crunch Arcidiacono took over as the floor leader. Last season Arcidiacono was a senior who had been named co-Big East player of the year as a junior and averaged 12.5 points, 4.2 assists and 32.0 minutes per game in his final season. Brunson averaged 9.6 points, 2.5 assists and 24.0 minutes per contest as a freshman.

Arcidiacono's influence was more pronounced in the NCAA tournament. He averaged 16.3 points, 2.5 assists and 33.3 minutes over the final four games of the tournament while Brunson averaged 6.0 points, 1.0 assist and 21.8 minutes in those four games.

Certainly the Wildcats will have a strong surrounding cast in 2016-17, including Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Phil Booth, but the loss of Arcidiacono with be noticed.

Brunson is a solid player and potentially a standout point guard, but it is unrealistic to think he can step in and match Arcidiacono's 2015-16 contributions immediately.

Dwayne Bacon, Florida State

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Even though it lost Malik Beasley, who averaged 15.6 points and 5.3 rebounds from a team that finished 11th in the Atlantic Coast Conference, big things are expected from Florida State in 2016-17. In the bevy of early preseason rankings, the Seminoles are ranked No. 16 by NBCSports.com, No. 22 by USA Today, and No. 23 by ESPN.com.

Coach Leonard Hamilton's outstanding group of incoming freshmen, which ranked as the 12th-best recruiting class in the nation by Scout.com, has a lot to do with those lofty preseason ratings. However, it is the presence of Dwayne Bacon that pushes the Seminoles into the Top 25.

Bacon was rated the nation's 14th-best prospect by ESPN.com last season, and he was named to the Atlantic Coast Conference all-freshman team, along with Beasley, at season's end. After leading the team in scoring (15.8 points per game) and rebounding (5.8 rebounds per game) last season, the 6'7" Bacon is expected to lift the Seminoles up the ACC ladder as a sophomore.

When Bacon withdrew his name from consideration for the NBA draft, Florida State's goals rose significantly. He told ESPN.com he returned to college because he wanted to improve enough to be a first-round NBA draft pick and because he wanted play in the NCAA tournament. "Thanks to Bacon's decision and yet another elite recruiting class," wrote Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com, "both are also totally realistic."

It puts a lot of pressure on Bacon to produce, especially since the ACC is loaded with talented teams again. Florida State is one of six ACC teams in ESPN.com's early preseason Top 25, including three that are ranked in the top six. Despite the Seminoles' impressive recruiting, their incoming class ranks only fifth among ACC schools, according to Scout.com.

Bacon is not yet a finished product. He shot just 28.1 percent from beyond the three-point line last season and had more turnovers (74) than assists (50). Even with the return of Xavier Rathan-Mayes and the addition of freshman Jonathan Isaac, it is probably unrealistic to think Bacon can make the Seminoles an ACC title contender in 2016-17. 

Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson

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All Jaron Blossomgame is asked to do in 2016-17 is make Clemson a contender in what might be the toughest conference in America, get the Tigers to the NCAA tournament for the first time in six years, liven up a renovated basketball arena, win ACC player of the year honors and possibly save his coach's job.

All that was loaded on Blossomgame's plate when he announced in late May that he would withdraw from the NBA draft and return to Clemson for his senior season. As the Associated Press noted (via ESPN.com), "With Blossomgame back, the Tigers and coach Brad Brownell expect to take a significant step forward."

Certainly the addition of transfers Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell has something to do with the lofty goals, but the optimism is based primarily on the presence of Blossomgame.

He and Duke's Grayson Allen are the only two members of last season's first-team all-conference squad who are back for 2016-17. Furthermore, Blossomgame demonstrated his influence when he averaged 19.8 points and 7.0 rebounds during Clemson's consecutive victories over Syracuse, Duke, Louisville and Miami last January.

That run set up the expectations for this season. "The breakthrough for this program is coming. And it's coming next season," wrote Jon Rothstein of NBCSports.com in a report of five teams on the rise even before Blossomgame announced he would return.

The Tigers need to get to the NCAA tournament for Brownell's sake. NBCSports.com identified him as one of 11 college basketball head coaches on the hot seat. Plus, the Tigers want to make a good impression in renovated Littlejohn Coliseum, which is expected to be ready for this season, per Dan Hope of the Anderson Independent Mail (via the State).

It seems unreasonable to believe that Blossomgame can do all the things expected of him. He has never had that kind of pressure to produce. As a sophomore, he averaged 13.1 points and made 28.8 percent of his three-point shots, but he improved to 18.7 points and 44.6 percent three-point shooting as a junior, helping him to be named the ACC's most improved player.

Whether he can produce similar numbers now that all his opponents recognize how dangerous he is becomes a key question. Now he is the centerpiece of a team with expectations that may be a little too high.

Josh Jackson, Kansas

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Josh Jackson is on this list simply because of Kansas' history.

Jackson is projected to be one of the top freshmen in the country in 2016-17 and is one reason Kansas is expected to win a 13th straight regular-season conference title and challenge for a national championship. 

ESPN.com and CBSSports.com both put the Jayhawks at No. 4 in their early preseason rankings, with ESPN.com adding, "It is tempting to say Jackson is just what the doctor ordered, given the departures of senior stalwart Perry Ellis, junior star Wayne Selden, and even little-used freshman reserve (but high-upside prospect) Cheick Diallo to the NBA draft." 

Scout.com ranks Jackson as the top recruit in the nation and ESPN.com has him at No. 2. NBADraft.net already has him listed as the No. 1 overall pick in its 2017 NBA mock draft.

So how can Jackson fail, especially with guards like Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham to direct the action?

Well, highly touted freshman forwards have not performed particularly well under Bill Self recently. Cheick Diallo was ranked as the nation's No. 7 prospect last year, and he barely played as a Jayhawks freshman, averaging 3.0 points and 7.5 minutes in 27 games. Cliff Alexander was ranked the No. 3 prospect in 2014, and he averaged 7.1 points and 17.6 minutes while playing in 28 games. Kelly Oubre was ranked the No. 11 freshman prospect in 2014 and he was a solid player as freshman, but he came off the bench in nine games that season and averaged a modest 9.3 points.

It's hard to criticize the season Andrew Wiggins had as a freshman in 2013-14, when he wound up as an Associated Press second-team All-American. But with the hype he received coming out of high school, people almost expected more. "He's the best high school player who has come around in a long time," then-Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg told ESPN.com's Andy Katz when Wiggins signed with Kansas.

Now along comes Jackson, who arrives with similar media fanfare. Until he plays a few college games, the expectations are just speculation for a freshman Kansas forward.

Recruit rankings and info courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.