UFC Fight Night 90 & TUF 23 Finale: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 200 comes our way on Saturday, but the UFC will also give us two additional events in the days preceding the stacked card. Each card features a UFC championship on the line.
UFC Fight Night 90 takes place on Thursday live on UFC Fight Pass (subscription required) with the lightweight title up for grabs. Champion Rafael dos Anjos battles Eddie Alvarez in the main event, and heavyweights Roy Nelson and Derrick Lewis will scrap in the co-main.
On Friday, the finals of The Ultimate Fighter 23 take place. Headlining the show will be a rematch between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha. This time it will be five rounds and for the strawweight strap. The two tournament finals are not yet known as the final episode will air Wednesday evening.
It's Fight Week, and Bleacher Report's team is here to deliver our predictions to help you get set. Craig Amos (47-35), Scott Harris (40-42), Sydnie Jones (48-34), Nathan McCarter (47-35) and Steven Rondina (49-33) are set to deliver predictions for the main cards of both events.
Let's see who the experts think walks out of Las Vegas with gold at UFC Fight Night 90 and The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale.
Undercard Quick Picks
1 of 5
Joseph Duffy vs. Mitch Clarke (UFC Fight Night 90)
Duffy: Harris, Jones, McCarter, Rondina
Clarke: Amos
Alan Jouban vs. Belal Muhammad (UFC Fight Night 90)
Jouban: Unanimous selection
Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares (TUF 23 Finale)
Doo Ho Choi: Unanimous selection
Jake Matthews vs. Kevin Lee (TUF 23 Finale)
Matthews: Amos, Harris, McCarter, Rondina
Lee: Jones
TUF 23 Strawweight Finale: Amanda Cooper vs. Tatiana Suarez (TUF 23 Finale)
Cooper: Harris
Suarez: Amos, Jones, McCarter, Rondina
TUF 23 Light Heavyweight Finale: Khalil Rountree vs. Andrew Sanchez (TUF 23 Finale)
Rountree: Unanimous selection
Roy Nelson vs. Derrick Lewis (UFC Fight Night 90)
2 of 5
Amos
Derrick Lewis' power vs. Roy Nelson's chin is an interesting matchup. It could be the decisive factor as well. If Nelson weathers the early storm, he'll be able to wear his opponent out and earn the late stoppage.
Nelson, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
We've got a potential changing of the guard here among hard-hitting heavyweight gatekeepers. Is Nelson ready to give up the ground? I'm guessing he is, given that he's nine years older than Lewis and riding a streak in which his only win in his past four was over the immortal Jared Rosholt. The Black Beast rides.
Lewis, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Nelson has an impressive tally of KO/TKO finishes, but his losses are coming more steadily and at 40 with 33 fights under his belt, his chances against an opponent younger, taller and heavier seem slim. Maybe Nelson will manage to rally his resources and put the hurt on Lewis, but I doubt it. Lewis will be too fast for Nelson to catch and too powerful for Nelson to survive to the end.
Nelson, KO, Rd. 3
McCarter
Lewis doesn't have great takedown defense, and this is a fight that Nelson could finish. But there is a gnawing at my stomach that I should take Lewis here. He has devastating power and while not at all refined has found decent success in the cage. Nelson is going to be too confident in his chin, allow Lewis inside and get corked.
Lewis, KO, Rd. 1
Rondina
In his entire career, Roy Nelson has only been knocked out by Mark Hunt and Andrei Arlovski...and they're both considerably better than Derrick Lewis. There's a chance that both men get tuckered out early and wheeze their way to the scorecards. Otherwise...
Nelson, TKO, Rd. 1
Ross Pearson vs. Will Brooks (TUF 23 Finale)
3 of 5
Amos
Ross Pearson is always a difficult guy to pick. He's inconsistent. Add in that Will Brooks has yet to cut his teeth in the Octagon, and there is a lot of margin for error here. I'll be conservative and take Brooks by decision.
Brooks, unanimous decision
Harris
Brooks' UFC debut is his fight to lose. Pearson is great behind the wheel of the welcome wagon, and that's for a reason. He'll put on a good show and might test Brooks' chin, but Brooks' intricate and hard-to-simulate karate-wrestling game will confound and overwhelm the Brit.
Brooks, unanimous decision
Jones
Will this be the fight that ends Pearson's win-loss eight-fight pattern? If so, he'd need a win, and I agree, Craig: He's all over the place. It's Brooks' UFC debut, so this may well be a new caliber of opponent for him. But not a caliber that he can't at least take a decision from.
Brooks, unanimous decision
McCarter
Pearson brings nonstop aggression and a solid boxing game in with him, but Brooks is just simply the better fighter. Pearson's style should bring out the best in Brooks. A new lightweight contender announces himself with a decisive performance.
Brooks, submission, Rd. 2
Rondina
Pearson is a crafty fighter but he probably can't craft his way around Brooks' wrestling. The Bellator champ should be able to win a fairly decisive, albeit boring, unanimous decision to start off his UFC career right.
Brooks, unanimous decision
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Rafael dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez (UFC Fight Night 90)
4 of 5
Amos
Eddie Alvarez has eked out victories over Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez, but Rafael dos Anjos has proved himself to be in a lightweight league of his own. The Brazilian can hold his own in the striking but will put his takedowns and clinch work to use to build a lead on the scorecards.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Harris
Neither of these guys has a major skill-set deficiency, but there's still a style clash here. Alvarez likes to box and stay on his horse or, more recently, work in the clinch. Dos Anjos is going to close the distance early and often, forcing Alvarez to move all the more assiduously. That will wring the energy out of Alvarez, particularly over five rounds.
Dos Anjos, unanimous decision
Jones
After losing his debut, Alvarez has done well in the UFC, taking split-decision wins over former Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez and former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. But he won't be able to hamper dos Anjos' action in the same way he did with Pettis. He also won't want to spend five rounds just trying to keep him at bay.
Dos Anjos, TKO, Rd. 3
McCarter
I've always enjoyed watching Alvarez compete, but I have also always been a naysayer of him getting to the championship level in the UFC. He shut me up against Gilbert Melendez, but I don't think he does here. He simply takes too much damage and won't be able to finish the champion. Dos Anjos will wear him down and finish late.
Dos Anjos, TKO, Rd. 4
Rondina
Unless RDA can score an early knockout (which is most certainly possible), this is going to be an incredibly close fight. Given that this one is taking place in the historically champ-friendly Nevada, there's very little chance that Alvarez can take the title.
Dos Anjos, split decision
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha (TUF 23 Finale)
5 of 5
Amos
The first bout was about as close as you can get. Since then, Joanna Jedrzejczyk has stayed busy, winning the title then defending it twice, while Claudia Gadelha has fought only once. I can't definitively say the extra cagework will benefit the champ, but it's given her more time to impress me, so she's my pick.
Jedrzejczyk, unanimous decision
Harris
It's not possible for me to overstate my excitement level for this. The champ has limbs of lightning and the fighting mind to use them to great effect. Gadelha's solid on her feet as well, but takedowns and submission grappling will have to be involved if she is to win the strap. In fact, you know what? Sound the alarms. The upset alarms. The Brazilian takes the title.
Gadelha, submission, Rd. 2
Jones
Gadelha's loss to Jedrzejczyk was controversial, and perhaps the injustice she thinks she's suffered will compel her to fight for a finish. I don't think she'll find it. In fact, Jedrzejczyk will make her victory definitive this time.
Jedrzejczyk, TKO, Rd. 4
McCarter
When I broke this fight down earlier in the week, I noted the mental aspect of this matchup. Jedrzejczyk looks much more confident than when they ended TUF, but I still think Gadelha is in her head. That will cause the champion to be more aggressive, which leads to openings for Gadelha to drop levels and score takedowns. Gadelha has been unaffected by Jedrzejczyk's talk and knows she can beat her. The mental edge seals a 49-46 clean sweep.
Gadelha, unanimous decision
Rondina
This fight will be decided in the clinch. Either Gadelha will be able to score trips and double-leg takedowns against the fence or Jedrzejczyk will pop her with uppercuts and elbows in tight. I'm expecting the latter to occur.
Jedrzejczyk, unanimous decision
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