NASCAR at Kentucky 2016: Preview, Prediction from the Quaker State 400
The heat is on.
With the summer solstice comes urgency as the drivers head to Kentucky for the Quaker State 400.
A year ago, we were in the midst of the Kyle Busch Super Happy Fun Tour, where he won three races in a row and four out of five. He’d cool off but ultimately win the championship.
Now that the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have cooled down here in 2016, where does that leave the rest of the field?
Stewart-Haas Racing has emerged as the strongest team in terms of points, and Team Penske boasts one of the most consistent drivers around in Brad Keselowski.
The sun won’t shine bright on this old Kentucky home (it’s a night race), so we’ll do our nocturnal best to preview this upcoming race from the Bluegrass State.
By the Numbers: Kentucky Speedway
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Quaker State 400
Place: Kentucky Speedway
Date: 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, July 9
TV Coverage: NBC Sports
Distance: 400 miles, 267 laps
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 565
2. Brad Keselowski, 551
3. Kurt Busch, 545
4. Joey Logano, 531
5. Carl Edwards, 527
6. Kyle Busch, 492
7. Martin Truex Jr., 482
8. Chase Elliott, 482
9. Jimmie Johnson, 475
10. Denny Hamlin, 446
11. Matt Kenseth, 446
12. Austin Dillon, 434
13. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 433
14. Ryan Newman, 425
15. Ryan Blaney, 409
16. Jamie McMurray, 405
Bold indicates a race winner, and italics indicate multirace winner.
The Chase Bubble Watch
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There’s a slight tweak to the Chase Bubble Watch now. Historically the CBW only had to watch the top 18 drivers with emphasis on the two above and below the top-16 cut line.
Since Tony Stewart crested the top 30 and has a win, he bumps every driver without a win down a spot in the standings. Earnhardt is 13th in the driver standings, but because of Stewart, he is actually 14th.
Just Inside the Bubble
Once again the Ryans—Newman and Blaney—are the two above the line and in the Chase if we were to end the season today.
But Water Cooler Dale is just above them at 14th on the Chase Grid, and that must have Junior Nation circling the wagons looking for answers.
More on Junior later in the show.
Just Outside the Bubble
McMurray, Trevor Bayne and Kasey Kahne sit just outside the bubble. One of these drivers will likely get into the Chase, but who?
All three have wins in their careers, but only McMurray and Kahne have wins at upcoming tracks. Kahne has wins at Pocono, Michigan and Loudon coming up, while McMurray has one win at the Brickyard.
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Biggest Storyline: Should Dale Earnhardt Jr. Worry About His Chase Hopes?
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This is the question looming over the rest of the season. Because Stewart has for now secured his Chase spot, the attention turns to NASCAR’s most popular driver and whether he can hold on.
Junior sits in 13th in the driver standings but 14th on the Chase Grid thanks to Stewart’s win at Sonoma and subsequent crawl into the top 30. A win from a driver outside the top 16 will push Junior farther out.
In the past nine races, as Fox Sports' Tom Jensen writes, Junior has finished outside the top 10 in eight of those races, going from sixth in points to 13th.
“But unless and until he wins or opens up a big points lead on the other winless drivers, there's still going to be that nagging uncertainty,” Jensen writes. “At this point, though, there's nothing left to do but go out and win and if he can't win, he needs to finish strong.”
Junior has eight career wins at some of the upcoming tracks (Pocono, Richmond, Michigan and Bristol). It’s a good bet that he’ll make the Chase, but if you wanted to short those odds, you’d probably cash in nicely.
Biggest Storyline: Round 2 of New-New Aero
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The new-new aero package, first introduced at Michigan a few weeks ago, didn’t necessarily yield positive results.
What we saw was Logano lead 138 laps, though there were 14 lead changes and nine cautions.
NASCAR’s chief racing development officer, Steve O’Donnell, said, "We wanted to go the direction of low downforce, see how that worked, not kind of go all the way in and hope that we are directionally right. And we are seeing that play out. We've seen some great racing at the beginning of the year."
For Kentucky, that includes changes to the rear spoiler, front splitter and rear deck fin.
We’ll see how it shakes out at Kentucky. Michigan elicited this from a frustrated Junior on the FS1 broadcast,: "It’s not a whole lot different than the other package. We talk about packages too much."
All right, so we’ll put an end to it...for now.
Biggest Storyline: Why Is Roush-Fenway Racing Suddenly Dangerous?
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Right now, bubble drivers need to worry about Roush Fenway Racing. Why?
For the first time since antebellum America, RFR finished three drivers inside the top 10 at a race: Bayne (third), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (fifth) and Greg Biffle (eighth).
The caveat to this is that it took place at Daytona (a plate track) in a race (the Coke Zero 400) where the Big One devoured 19 cars, including several would-be contenders (Johnson, Elliott, Harvick and many, many more).
"It's not a win that we need to get in the Chase, but it's a great step in the right direction for making it in on points," said Bayne after the race (h/t Chase Wilhelm’s FoxSports.com story).
Two of these three drivers have won races, and all three are outside the top 16 in points. Wins by them will muddy the Chase picture for several of the bubble drivers.
Looking at you, Junior, Newman, Blaney and Dillon.
Dark-Horse Pick: Ryan Newman
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Newman loves to hover right around the top 16 in points.
He has the makings of someone who could earn some serious defensive-driver discounts with a trusted car insurance provider.
Specifically, Newman has performed well in the five races at Kentucky. In 2014, he finished third, making it his second top-five at the track.
With drivers like Keselowski and Kyle Busch dominating the few Cup series races at Kentucky, Newman has done well to be within a few car lengths of them and could do the same thing Saturday night.
And the Winner Is...Brad Keselowski
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Five drivers have won at Kentucky since the Sprint Cup Series started going there in 2011, and Keselowski has two of those wins. He led 199 laps in his 2014 win, and if you draw a line through that 2013 33rd-place finish, he hasn’t completed a race worse than seventh at Kentucky.
Back in 2014, the last time Kez won this race in dominating fashion, he said in Jeff Gluck’s USA Today story:
"When you hit this mark in the season, some cars might show a little bit more development, but not a lot. I think you pretty much get to where everyone has almost what they're going to have to finish off the year around this time. And when you can run well at this point in time in the year, it bodes well for the final half of the season.
"
And how prescient is that for 2016? He has finished outside the top 10 only once in the past eight races and has that championship look to him.
As for his title hopes, he has spaced out his wins masterfully. He won at Vegas (third race of the year), Talladega (the 10th) and Daytona (the 17th). He isn’t streaky. Like Harvick and Kurt Busch, Kez has been amazingly consistent and has more wins than those two combined.
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