UFC 200 Primer: Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Miesha Tate will defend her newly minted championship against Amanda Nunes at UFC 200 on July 9.
The title tilt will be the second of three championship clashes on the card. Tate captured gold against Holly Holm at UFC 196 with a rear-naked choke in the final round. She did exactly what she needed to do when she needed to do it. She showed her champion's resolve in coming out with the belt.
Nunes earned her title shot with three consecutive victories. She stopped Shayna Baszler and Sara McMann before edging out Valentina Shevchenko on the judges' scorecards.
Once again, the bantamweight title is in the spotlight. This time, it is helping to lock down a loaded fight card at UFC 200. Two of the best 135-pound women walking planet Earth will step inside the cage to exchange leather.
Who holds the advantages in this matchup?
There's only one way to find out. Here is your head-to-toe breakdown of Saturday's bantamweight championship clash between Nunes and Tate.
Striking
1 of 5
There is probably someone out there boiling this fight down to the rudimentary label of "striker vs. grappler." The fact is both women are well versed in all aspects of MMA. Neither is out of her depth standing or on the ground.
Tate has done a great job of developing her striking over the years. It was on display against Holm earlier in 2016. She wasn't beating Holm in the stand-up, but she was holding her own and giving herself opportunities to utilize her game plan.
Recently, she has added power to her strikes. It still won't be enough to get the edge.
Nunes is a more technical, crisp, powerful and diverse striker, the diverse portion being the real crux of why she gets the nod. Her brutal leg kicks help set her apart from most in the field. They can change the course of the fight, and they will be one of the most interesting things to watch in this matchup.
Will she be hesitant to throw leg kicks against a talented wrestler like Tate, or will she use them to limit the champion's mobility in a five-round affair? Keep an eye out for Nunes' game plan regarding her brutalizing leg kicks.
Edge: Nunes
Grappling
2 of 5
Nunes doesn't get the credit she deserves for her takedowns, but it is no shock to anyone that Tate has the edge in grappling.
It's what she does best.
Nunes has decent takedown defense, but it's not stellar. According to the FightMetric numbers, she defends just 60 percent of takedowns. That may be good against another wrestler, but not someone who is relentless like Tate. The champion will keep coming forward all fight long.
Tate's overall game is more polished than Nunes', but what you should watch for at UFC 200 is the champion's entries on her shots. How far out is she when shooting, and what is she doing to set them up? Those questions are paramount to her success against the Brazilian.
Edge: Tate
Submissions
3 of 5
This is the most difficult section to give an edge to a fighter. Both women are adept at finishing with submissions.
If this were a jiu-jitsu tournament, the edge may go to Nunes. But in an MMA fight, Tate gets the nod.
The reason is simply that Tate has proven her ability to finish top-level competition inside the cage. And it's not just Holm. Tate pulled out a come-from-behind armbar against Julie Kedzie, and she captured the Strikeforce title with an arm-triangle against Marloes Coenen.
She has been doing it for years inside the cage at a high level, but yet somehow her ground game remains underrated.
Nunes finishing Tate via submission would more than likely come after hurting her with strikes, but nothing is out of the realm of possibility given her talent.
Proven results are why the scale tips toward Tate.
Edge: Tate
X-Factors
4 of 5
Nunes' X-Factor: The Big Stage
This isn't just a title fight for Nunes. If it were a co-main event on another card, it wouldn't be as big of an issue. But this is UFC 200. She has never experienced a main event slot before, nor has she experienced anything like what International Fight Week is for someone on the fight card.
Tate has. She is accustomed to everything that goes along with these types of fights.
When Nunes makes that walk toward the cage, it won't be just another walk. This is a big stage, and fighters have wilted under less pressure.
Tate's X-Factor: Striking Defense
Tate absorbs a lot of strikes. Her striking defense percentage, according to FightMetric, is at 52 percent, which is all well and good unless one of those 48 percent of Nunes' strikes is right on the button.
The champion has been rocked and finished with strikes in the past. She is a tough woman, but it is not as if we have never seen her laid out on the canvas before. Nunes has the type of raw power to land crushing blows. Tate will need to be more cautious than normal.
Nunes is also not as tactical as Holm. Nunes has a blistering aggression to her striking that Tate will need to combat. She can compete on the feet, but she needs to have a tightened-up defensive strategy for this fight.
Prediction
5 of 5
The moment will prove too big for Nunes on Saturday.
Tate has been showing better fight strategy both in her tactics entering the fight and changing them mid-fight. That will be the difference at UFC 200.
Tate will win the first round, but it'll be more of a slow pace as she tries to figure out Nunes' game plan. Tate will score a takedown and grind out the round. Once she is back in the corner, Tate and her team will make the adjustments they need to begin dominating the fight.
The pressure of the event will get to Nunes and cause her to tire out earlier than she normally would. Tate will take advantage of that unfortunate circumstance. A tired Nunes will get taken down in the third round once again, and she'll leave an opening for Tate to finish.
The champion will retain her belt, setting up a rematch against either Holm or Ronda Rousey in late 2016 or early 2017.
Prediction: Tate defeats Nunes via submission in the third round
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