NBA Free Agents 2016: Predictions for Top Players Based on Latest Rumors
Despite some huge contracts being agreed upon early in the free-agency negotiation period, some of the top assets on the NBA free-agent market are still available.
Per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Kevin Durant has finished up his meeting with the Spurs. This means that the superstar only has the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat to meet with before the Oklahoma City Thunder get one last pitch, if the schedule Ananth Pandian of CBSSports.com has reported holds.
Al Horford is also one of the top commodities in this year's class who has yet to agree on terms with a team. The Atlanta Hawks big man is ranked fourth on Bleacher Report's Free Agency Top 100 Big Board and is one of few players left who could have a big impact on a team's record next season.
Here's a look at the top players left, with predictions as to where they'll land.
| 1 | LeBron James | Cavaliers | Cavaliers |
| 2 | Kevin Durant | Thunder | Thunder |
| 4 | Al Horford | Hawks | Celtics |
| 6 | Dwyane Wade | Heat | Bucks |
| 11 | Dirk Nowitzki | Mavericks | Mavericks |
| 13 | Pau Gasol | Bulls | Trail Blazers |
| 17 | Harrison Barnes | Warriors | Warriors |
| 19 | J.R. Smith | Cavaliers | Cavaliers |
| 20 | Bismack Biyombo | Raptors | Raptors |
| 21 | Ryan Anderson | Pelicans | Rockets |
Obviously, the holy grail of free agents is Kevin Durant. He's the only bonafide superstar free agent that's available, unless you think LeBron James would possibly sign anywhere other than Cleveland.
As Pandian reports, Durant is reportedly in the process of meeting with six teams, including the Thunder, who had the first, and will presumably get the last meeting with the small forward. So far, the reports have varied as to how the meetings are going.
NBC Sports' Aaron Bruski joked that the Clippers meeting might have been like the culminating scene from a feel-good movie where everyone learns to get along:
The Spurs meeting sounds like it was as business-like as you would expect the Spurs to be, per Stein:
If Durant's biggest concern is winning an NBA title—and all indications are that it is—then the Warriors should be considered the biggest threat to take him from Oklahoma City. While Sam Amick of USA Today reports the meeting between the two went "very well." Chris Broussard of ESPN reports that KD was "non-committal."
Durant still needs to meet with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, so the whirlwind of rumored reactions to meetings is bound to continue. However, the bottom line is that Oklahoma City should still feel confident about its chances of retaining the star, at least until next year.
KD still has the option of signing a one-year deal with a player option that would allow him to opt out and become a free agent once again this time next year, when Russell Westbrook will also have the same option and the salary cap projects to balloon from $94 million to somewhere in the neighborhood of $108 million.
Simply put, Durant can give Oklahoma City one more shot with a nucleus that now includes Victor Oladipo instead of Serge Ibaka while maximizing his financial outlook with a max contract under an even higher salary cap next season.
Regardless of how well these meetings are going, Durant's best option is still to remain with the Thunder for now. After all, OKC was just one game from going to the NBA Finals, and the Thunder already proved they're willing to make moves with the deal in place to acquire Oladipo.
Unlike in 2010, when LeBron James' decision held up the rest of the major free agents on the market, it appears that players like Al Horford won't be impacted by where KD chooses to go.
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, the center is expected to make his decision Saturday night with two distinct favorites: the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards.
In today's NBA, having an athletic and versatile big man in the style of Horford is a huge asset. His ability to run in transition and spread the floor with his mid-range shooting gives a team plenty of lineup flexibility and spacing.
One man who understands the impact that Horford can have is Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas. He reached out to the free agent and described the interaction, per Chris Forsberg of ESPN:
"I just reached out to [Horford]. I got his number and reached out to him saying, "I'm interested in playing with you. I just want to put that in your ear. I know the Celtics would love if you came and are a part of the organization. Good luck with the process." And things like that. And then he texted me back, he said, "I'm a fan of how you guys play. I'm a fan of your game and would love the opportunity, but we'll see what happens."
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The Celtics earned the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference last season and don't stand to lose much production from that lineup. Meanwhile, the Wizards failed to make the field and haven't made massive upgrades to their lineup.
Boston has a lot of young assets. It just doesn't have the star to pull it all together. Horford might not qualify as a star, but he's the kind of veteran that could vault the Celtics into the next echelon of contenders in the watered-down Eastern Conference.
It's difficult to envision Dwyane Wade in anything other than a Miami Heat jersey, yet here we are.
For years, the shooting guard has put the Miami Heat organization first, taking pay cuts so the team could sign premier free agents and be a contender.
It appears as though Wade has grown frustrated with that role and is negotiating with other teams. According to Wojnarowski, contract negotiations with the Heat broke down after he felt disrespected by a low offer:
"The Heat's initial offer of $10 million annually – which would've constituted a 50 percent pay cut from his $20 million 2015-16 salary – deeply angered Wade, league sources told The Vertical. Even with the Heat planning to counter to a higher figure, league sources said, Wade has been insistent on starting to explore the market and meet with teams once he returns from an overseas vacation, league sources said.
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Four teams have emerged with $20 million annual offers: the Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks, per Wojnarowski.
The Bulls make some sense. Wade is from Chicago and he would stay in the East. But Chicago appears to be committed to Jimmy Butler at the 2, and they are in something of a rebuilding mode with the recent departure of Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol's free agency.
The Mavericks would give Wade the opportunity to play with Dirk Nowitzki and a Dallas team with a lot of talent, but a move to the Western Conference means the playoffs are far from guaranteed and the Finals are likely out of the question.
Going to Milwaukee, however, allows Wade to join a team with an emerging nucleus in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and Khris Middleton. The Bucks have been involved in the market, with Matthew Dellavedova signing an offer sheet for 4 years and $38 million, per Zach Lowe of ESPN.com, and Mirza Teletovic signing for three years and $30 million, per Stein.
Wade would be the perfect free agent to teach that young team how to win. In the Eastern Conference, that might be enough for them to become a playoff team.
