UFC 200 Primer: Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne Head-to-Toe Breakdown
When the loaded UFC 200 pay-per-view gets underway, it will be two of the best heavyweights in the world kicking off the show.
No. 3-ranked Cain Velasquez (13-2), according to Bleacher Report's June MMA rankings, steps back inside the Octagon for the first time since losing the UFC heavyweight championship against No. 7-ranked Travis Browne (18-3-1).
Velasquez was once the undisputed kingpin of the division, but injuries have kept him away from the cage. His return last June removed any luster that was left with a tiring performance against Fabricio Werdum. Browne has not been lighting up the scene either and is coming off a victory mired in controversy.
In January, Browne squared off against Matt Mitrione. He got the TKO win in the third round but only after several fouls without a single point deduction. The eye pokes altered the course of the fight and gave Browne a clear advantage.
Now Browne is meeting the former champion with the hopes to establish himself as a title contender. Will he be able to stop the former champion? Can Velasquez return to former glory with a vintage nonstop performance? There is only one way to know, and how they match up is paramount. Here is the head-to-toe breakdown for UFC 200's main card kick-starter.
Striking
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The conventional thought to this matchup is striker vs. grappler. And that is true to an extent. However, this grappler's striking is often overlooked—and it's dangerous.
It is hard to forget what Velasquez was able to do to Junior Dos Santos on the feet, and Dos Santos is one of the best strikers in the entire division. Velasquez pelted him time and again. Likewise, he did struggle to avoid what Fabricio Werdum threw at him in 2015.
That should give pause to swinging the pendulum completely in his favor.
Browne will enjoy a reach advantage, and he will want to keep this fight standing. He has excellent power and throws a complete arsenal of strikes. That could be his saving grace at UFC 200.
However, the scale still tips in favor of Velasquez. His style of high-pressure, high-output striking can be effective in this matchup. It has wilted better fighters than Browne before, and it can be just as effective on July 9. Grappler vs. striker? Well, the grappler has better hands.
Edge: Velasquez
Grappling
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This will not come as a surprise to anyone—Velasquez is the far superior grappler.
According to FightMetric, Velasquez averages 5.24 takedowns per fight. It is an absurd number.
Browne has grappling abilities of his own, but against Velasquez it likely won't come into play. The notion that Browne will tempt fate and turn this into a wrestling contest against Velasquez is a fleeting one. He will merely be relying on his credible defensive capabilities.
This section is all Velasquez. No one is expecting otherwise.
Edge: Velasquez
Submissions
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Browne does have two submission victories to his credit against Velasquez's zero. Still, Velasquez will take the edge.
Submissions are not a heavy part of Browne's game, and the opportunities will be slim against Velasquez. Browne isn't a world-champion-level jiu-jitsu ace. Velasquez would have to make a monumental mental error to end up tapping out against Browne.
Velasquez has stellar submission defense, but what ultimately gives him the nod is the fact he will almost certainly be the one in dominant positions throughout the fight.
Browne is not likely to sweep Velasquez from top, and Velasquez has all the talent to pass his guard should he want to advance. Everything about the matchup states Velasquez will be in the best position to utilize submissions. It's not his preferred method of winning, but if one presents itself, don't be shocked to see Velasquez go for the tap.
Edge: Velasquez
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X-Factors
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Browne's X-Factor: Fight IQ
Browne is going to be at a disadvantage in this matchup. He has all the tools to get the upset, but he will have to be smart. Velasquez is too good to make dumb mistakes against.
Browne has to pick his shots. Being overaggressive will get him on his back quickly. Patience and the ability to sense what is next will give Browne brief windows to end the fight.
Velasquez's X-Factor: Agility
Injuries take a toll on a fighter no matter who they are, and Father Time isn't one to wait around either. Velasquez is once again coming off a yearlong layoff. Does he have the quickness and agility to remain as one of the best in the world?
Against Browne, it will be one of his biggest advantages. Having the agility to bounce in and out of range or to make a quick shot is crucial to success. If Velasquez has slowed considerably, Browne becomes a quick favorite to win by knockout.
Prediction
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If you've been following along, you can see where this is going. Velasquez is going to win.
He is better everywhere. Browne's chances to win this fight are to catch Velasquez in tiny windows of opportunity. Velasquez has been caught before—such as against Cheick Kongo—but he was able to recover. Browne likely won't offer those same chances. If he catches Velasquez, it's over.
But those chances won't come. Velasquez will pressure, pressure, pressure. The high tempo will lead to Browne being on his back for most of the fight, and it will tire him out. Velasquez will advance position to rain down blows that will force the referee to stop the action.
The win puts Velasquez back in title contention in a growing heavyweight division, but as the former champion, his name should go right to the top of the list. UFC 200 is the stage for Velasquez to showcase the fact he isn't done just yet.
Prediction: Velasquez defeats Browne by TKO in the second round
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