College Basketball Coaches Facing Make-It or Break-It Seasons
College basketball coaches sometimes reach a crossroads. Their first few years at a school may not have not been as successful as expected, and they realize that the following season may determine their future. A subsequent good season means their job is safe and the future looks promising. However, another subpar season may mean unemployment.
A lot of pressure is involved when a coach faces a make-or-break season, but it is also an opportunity for a coach to turn the situation into a major breakthrough that can carry the program for years to come.
We offer 12 coaches who face that dicey situation in the 2016-17 season, although the first coach on the list seems to have avoided immediate concern because of a contract extension he signed last December. The other 11 have a greater sense of urgency.
Steve Wojciechowski, Marquette
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Marquette coach Steve Wojciechowski probably needs an asterisk beside his name because he seems to have protected his job for at least another year or two by signing a contract extension last December.
When the Golden Eagles started Wojciechowski's second season 10-2, including wins over LSU and Wisconsin, Marquette officials thought it prudent to sign him to an extension through the 2021-22 season.
Marquette then went 8-10 in the Big East and missed the NCAA tournament for the second straight season after playing in the Big Dance in eight of the nine seasons before Wojciechowski arrived.
The Golden Eagles went 4-14 in the Big East, tied for last place, in Wojciechowski's first season, so there was progress in Year Two. And there is reason to believe the team will take another step forward in 2016-17. Although Marquette lost its best player, freshman center Henry Ellenson, to the NBA after just one season, virtually the rest of the roster will return. Haanif Cheatham, Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Jajuan Johnson all return after averaging double figures in scoring in 2015-16. A berth in the NCAA tournament is within reach.
But what if Marquette does not make that anticipated breakthrough and fails to make the NCAA tournament again? Missing the Big Dance for a third straight year typically puts a coach's job in jeopardy at a major basketball school like Marquette. The last Marquette coach to be fired was Mike Deane, who took the Golden Eagles to the NCAA tournament in two of his first three seasons, but was dismissed in 1999 when Marquette missed the NCAA tournament for a second straight season.
However, Marquette presumably wouldn't fire Wojciechowski a little over a year after giving him the long contract extension no matter how poorly the Golden Eagles play in 2016-17. Were it not for the contract extension, this might be a make-or-break season for Wojo.
Marquette officials can only hope they did not make the same mistake Notre Dame did with football coach Charlie Weis. Just seven games into Weis' first season with the Irish in 2005, Notre Dame signed him to a lucrative, long-term contract, because he had taken a team that was unranked in preseason to a No. 9 ranking, as reported by ESPN.com. After finishing the first season 9-3 and the second 10-3, the Irish went 3-9, 7-6 and 6-6 the next three seasons and Weis was fired.
Richard Pitino, Minnesota
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Being the son of Rick Pitino will not save Minnesota coach Richard Pitino if the Golden Gophers do not show progress in 2016-17.
Minnesota got to the NCAA tournament three times under Tubby Smith, and the Gophers upset UCLA in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in 2013. But Smith left after the 2012-13 season, leaving the club to Pitino, who has presided over the program's rapid decline over the past three season.
The Gophers had a decent season in Pitino's rookie year as coach, as the Gophers' 25-13 record and National Invitation Tournament championship suggested Pitino might be the long-term answer at Minnesota. However, the Gophers slipped to 18-15 overall and 6-12 in the conference in his second season, then bottomed out to an 8-23 overall record, including 2-16 in the Big Ten, this past season.
Pitino has had losing conference records in all three of his seasons at Minnesota and finished 10th and 13th the last two seasons, respectively.
Things had better improve next season or Pitino, who turns 34 in September, may see his career as a head coach come to an early end.
ESPN.com did Pitino no favors when its headline for its preview of next season read "Looking Ahead: Minnesota is a mess." That article went on to use a quote from Eric Kale, the university's president, who said, "Frankly, this has been a tough week and a tough couple of months for our men's basketball program. I'm profoundly disappointed in the continuing episodes, poor judgment, alleged crimes, and it simply can't continue."
The university president also expressed concerns about the off-court behavior of some of the players, according to an Associated Press report (h/t ESPN.com).
Finally, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported in May that university audits found Pitino had overspent on travel expenses.
The addition of Amir Coffey, the nation's No. 7 small forward recruit, according to ESPN.com, to a large group of returning players should improve the talent level and the potential for success. Whether it is enough to restore Minnesota's basketball pride is another question.
John Groce, Illinois
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Not since 1980 had Illinois failed to reach the NCAA tournament for three straight years until the Illini missed the Big Dance for a third straight year in 2015-16 under John Groce.
Bruce Weber never missed the NCAA tournament in consecutive seasons and he was fired after his ninth season at Illinois. And the Illinois administration probably will not accept a fourth straight season without an NCAA berth from Groce.
Perhaps worse than the NCAA tournament drought is the direction of the program, which has gone steadily downhill in Groce's four seasons as coach. After barely squeezing into the NCAA tournament and finishing 23-13 in Groce's first season, the Illini slipped to 20-15 in the second season, to 19-14 in his third, to 15-19 this past season. The Illini did not have a winning Big Ten record in any of Groce's first four seasons, and the 5-13 conference record that resulted in a 12th-place finish this past season was disappointing.
Everything went wrong for Groce and the Illini in 2015-16. Darius Paul was dismissed before the season started because of an arrest during the summer, according to Associated Press. Mike Thorne Jr., a transfer from Charlotte, and Leron Black played just eight and seven games, respectively, because of knee injuries as noted by the Chicago Tribune. In addition, guard Tracy Abrams, who missed the 2014-15 season with a torn anterior-cruciate ligament, missed a second straight season with an Achilles injury, per the Chicago Tribune.
The one highlight was the play and versatility of guard Malcolm Hill, a second-team all-conference selection, who led the team in scoring and has the makings of a star. He will be back next season, as will Thorne, who was granted another season of eligibility, and Black, although Black has been suspended for the first four games, according to the Tribune.
However, Kendrick Nunn, the team's second-leading scorer at 15.5 points per game as a junior, has been kicked off the team after pleading guilty to domestic battery, according to a CBSSports.com report.
If everyone stays healthy, the Illini could challenge for an NCAA tournament berth next season. Getting to the NCAA tournament may be a requirement for Groce to keep his job. Athletic director Josh Whitman fired football coach Bill Cubit on his first official day as Illinois' AD last March. Groce probably doesn't want to find out how Whitman will respond to another losing season.
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Kim Anderson, Missouri
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Those who wonder why more successful lower-division coaches are not hired by Division I schools can be directed to Kim Anderson's situation at Missouri.
Anderson built a Division II powerhouse at Central Missouri, which won the Division II national championship in his final season there in 2014. However, his two seasons at Missouri have not come close to resembling his Central Missouri success. The Tigers went 9-23 his first season and 10-21 this past season in his second. Worse is the fact that Missouri finished dead last in the 14-team Southeastern Conference both years.
It wasn't long ago that the Tigers were in the running for a national championship. The methods of former coach Frank Haith may have been suspect, since they led to Missouri self-imposing penalties last January, but he did get results. The Tigers were ranked No. 3 in the country in the Associated Press' final regular-season poll in 2012, and Missouri won at least 23 games in each of Haith's three season at Missouri.
Before Anderson arrived, Missouri had just three losing seasons since 1979, and the Tigers reached the NCAA tournament 23 times since then.
If the Tigers don't get it turned around in Anderson's third season, people may start to understand why Anderson was passed over for the Missouri job when openings arose in 1999, 2006 and 2011, as noted by the Columbia Daily Tribune when Anderson was hired.
Anderson's task has been made more difficult by the departure of a number of players before their eligibility expired.
Bruce Weber, Kansas State
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Bruce Weber has developed a habit of having great success in his first year or two at a new school, making the most of the talent left by his predecessor.
His Ilinois team finished first in the Big Ten each of his first two seasons after taking over from Bill Self. In that second season, Illinois went 37-2 and was the NCAA tournament runner-up. Then came several seasons of gradual decline before he was fired following his ninth season, when the Illini finished ninth in the Big Ten.
A similar trend is developing at Kansas State. After sharing the Big 12 regular-season championship with Kansas in his first year as Frank Martin's successor, things have steadily gone downhill. From a 14-4 conference record in 2013, to 10-8 in his second season, to 8-10 in Year Three, to 5-13 this past season.
If that trend continues in his fifth season, Weber may be looking for another job. Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com, who notes Kansas State fans launched an unsuccessful campaign to have Weber replaced after last season, suggests the Wildcats may have enough talent to reach the NCAA tournament in 2017. Then he poses and answers the key question: "Would that satisfy fans? Maybe? Maybe not."
There is hope. Although the Wildcats will lose their top scorer and rebounder from last season, Justin Edwards, the next five highest scorers return. And with an average of just 12.7 points per game last season, Edwards is not irreplaceable.
The Wildcats have a potential star in 6'7" forward Wesley Iwundu, who was a third-team all-conference selection last season, when he averaged 11.9 points and led the team in assists at 3.7 per game. He had 22 points in the Kansas State's 11-point victory over then-No. 1 Oklahoma in February.
Point guard Kamau Stokes will also return after missing he final 12 games of his freshman season with a knee injury that required surgery, according to the Kansas City Star. He will join two other sophomores, Barry Brown and Dean Wade, who were named to the conference all-newcomer team.
Weber needs to establish that he can win with players he recruited, and he needs to do it this season.
Jim Christian, Boston Ciollege
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Boston College went 14-19 overall and 4-14 in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Jim Christian's first year as the Eagles' coach, only to slip further in Year Two, going 7-25 overall and 0-18 in the ACC in 2015-16. Losing every single game against conference opponents (including a first-round loss in the ACC tournament) is major blot on a resume, even in a conference as strong as the ACC. ESPN.com noted it was the first time an ACC team went winless through conference play since Maryland went 0-14 in 1986-87.
Boston College has never fired a basketball coach after just three seasons, but if the 2016-17 season resembles this past season, athletic director Brad Bates will have a tough decision on his hands. Al Skinner was forced out as head coach after the 2010 season even though he had taken the Eagles to the NCAA tournament in seven of the previous 10 seasons. (Technically, Skinner and Boston College mutually agreed to part ways, but Andy Katz of ESPN reported that Skinner's departure looked very much like a firing.)
Christian inherited a program that was struggling, taking over a team that had gone 8-24 overall and 4-14 in the conference in Steve Donahue's final season. It takes time to recover from that situation, but how much time is needed?
It didn't help that the Boston Globe published a story in March criticizing Boston College's football and basketball programs, both of which went winless in conference games.
The one positive that came out of the 2015-16 season was the experience gained by a lot of young players. Six of the top 10 scorers last season were freshmen, and they are back, led by point guard Jerome Robinson, who was second on the team in scoring at 11.7 points per game. Several incoming freshmen should help as well.
However, the Eagles lose Eli Carter, who was the team's leading scorer and assist man, and Dennis Clifford, the team's top rebounder and third-leading scorer.
The Eagles have not been to the NCAA tournament since 2009, and a berth in that event may be out of reach for the Eagles next season. But Christian needs to break the downward spiral and avoid the school's sixth straight losing season to prevent Bates from having to make a tough decision. Winning a few conference games would help too.
Tim Miles, Nebraska
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Tim Miles may have created his own problem.
He was able to turn around the basketball programs at North Dakota State and Colorado State, and he seemed to have Nebraska pointed in a similar direction when he took the Cornhuskers to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998 in his second season. In that encouraging 2013-14 season, Nebraska finished fourth in the Big Ten with an 11-7 record, ahead of Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State, and Miles was named Big Ten coach of the year.
Expectations rose in 2014-15 with Miles at the helm, but the Cornhuskers could not deliver. With first-team all-conference swingman Terran Petteway returning, the Cornhuskers were ranked 21st in the 2014-15 preseason Associated Press poll. However, the Cornhuskers slipped to 13-18 overall and 5-13 in the conference, finishing in 12th place.
Nebraska suffered its second straight losing season in 2015-16, when the Cornhuskers went 16-18 overall and 6-12 in the conference, placing 11th in the Big Ten while losing six of their final eight games.
Suddenly things don't look so rosy for Miles, who has had losing seasons in three of his four years at Nebraska and finished 10th or worse in the Big Ten in three of those seasons. The expectations Miles created during the 2013-14 season have come back to haunt him.
Miles and the Cornhuskers need to avoid a third straight losing season to show that the 2013-14 season was not a fluke. Nebraska has invested a lot of money in the basketball program, and it wants some return. As noted by ESPN.com's Myron Metcalf, Nebraska has added a lavish, $18 million practice facility and a $180 million new home arena.
Nebraska's hopes for regaining its 2013-14 status received a crushing blow late last month, when Andrew White, who would have been the team's top returning scorer at 16.6 points per game, decided to transfer to another school for his final season. Miles had been relieved when White pulled his name out of the NBA draft in May, but expressed his disappointment when he granted White's release a month later, according to the Lincoln Journal-Star.
Shavon Shields, the team's top scorer last season as a senior, is also gone, leaving Miles with two returning starters, Tai Webster and Glynn Watson Jr.
An NCAA tournament berth in 2017 seems like a long shot at the moment. Avoiding a third straight losing season will be difficult enough, and Nebraska may not tolerate too many more of those.
Orlando Antigua, South Florida
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South Florida's 22-14 season in 2011-12, when the Bulls went to the NCAA tournament for the only time since 1992, now seems more like a fluke than the start of a something promising.
Orlando Antigua has won just 17 games in his first two seasons as South Florida's coach, the school's lowest two-season total since Bobby Paschal won just 13 games in 1987-88 and 1988-89 combined. Paschal's Bulls went on to earn NCAA tournament berths in 1990 and 1992, but that was when the Bulls were in the Sun Belt Conference and Metro Conference, respectively. Now they are trying to make headway in the American Athletic Conference.
Player absences because of injuries, transfers and other issues conspired to make things difficult for Antigua last season, when there were times he had only six scholarship players available, according to a Tampa Bay Times report. But the bottom line is hard to ignore, especially when the team went 4-14 at home, its worst home mark in the school's 45-year history, according to the Tampa Tribune, and averaged just 3,098 in home attendance.
Asked whether he needs to get in done in Year Three, Antigua told the Tampa Bay Times, "Yes, absolutely."
What "getting it done" means in South Florida's case is not clear. An NCAA tournament berth may be too much to ask immediately after 9-23 and 8-25 seasons, so presumably it means a season that indicates the Bulls are improving and on the road to success.
And improvement seems very possible. Troy Holston is expected back after missing last season with a torn ACL, according to the Tampa Bay Times, and Jahmal McMurray decided to withdraw from the NBA draft to return to South Florida for his sophomore season. Tulio Da Silva figures to contribute after being an academic non-qualifier last season as a freshman. Geno Thorpe, who started 17 games at Penn State as a sophomore, and Isaiah Manderson, who played sparingly at Texas Tech, should help after sitting out last season as transfers.
The season would have been more promising if Chris Perry and Roddy Peters, the team's second- and third-leading scorers last season, had not been dismissed for rules violations, per the Tampa Bay Times.
Athletic director Mark Harlan has a stake in Antigua's success. Among Harlan's first acts after being hired as South Florida's athletic director in March 2014 was to fire Stan Heath and replace him with Antigua, who was given a five-year contract. After this past season, Harlan said in a Tampa Tribune article that he has not lost confidence in Antigua.
Will Harlan still have confidence in in Antigua if he fails to reach double figures in wins for a third straight year?
Brad Brownell, Clemson
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The 2016-17 season is the epitome of a make-or-break season for Clemson coach Brian Brownell.
On one hand you have the fact that Clemson made the NCAA tournament only once in Brownell's six seasons with the Tigers, and that lone berth came in Brownell's first season when he was working with the players left by departed coach Oliver Purnell.
On the other hand is the fact that 2016-17 may be Brownell's best chance to reach the NCAA tournament again and quiet the doubters.
Brownell and the Tigers received a major boost when forward Jaron Blossomgame, a first-team, all-Atlantic Coast Conference selection last season, decided to withdraw from the NBA draft and return to Clemson for his his senior season. Donte Graham and point guard Avry Holmes, each of whom averaged about 10 points a game as the team's second- and third-leading scorers last season, return too. Also, Clemson will add three transfers who sat out last season and should help next season: Marcquise Reed (from Robert Morris), Shelton Mitchell (Vanderbilt), and Elijah Thomas (Texas A&M).-
But the key and the reason for urgency is Blossomgame. He is one of two returning all-ACC players (Duke's Grayson Allen is the other), and Brownell may not have another player of his caliber for some time. That's why Clemson and Brownell have to get it done this coming season.
The Tigers showed what they were capable of accomplishing at the start of the 2016 conference season. They won five straight games, including consecutive wins over Syracuse, Louisville, Duke and Miami, to start out 5-1 in ACC play. They wilted a bit down the stretch and finished just 10-8 in the conference.
With Clemson's key players having another year of experience, the 2016-17 season is shaping up as a breakthrough season. If it turns into a sixth straight season without an NCAA tournament invitation, a lot of people are going to be disappointed.
Jeff Lebo, East Carolina
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East Carolina's move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference has not been kind to Jeff Lebo's resume.
The Pirates certainly did not dominate Conference USA in Lebo's first four seasons as coach, finishing with a winning overall record only twice and a winning conference mark just once in that span. However, things got worse when East Carolina took a step up in class by joining the AAC prior to the 2014-15 season. The Pirates finished just 14-19 overall and 6-12 in the AAC in 2014-15, then regressed further by finishing the 12-20 overall and 4-14 in the conference, leaving them in ninth place.
Perhaps more discouraging was the way the Pirates finished the 2015-16 season. When East Carolina knocked off eventual regular-season AAC champion Temple on Jan. 27, things looked promising. But the Pirates then proceeded to lose nine of their final 11 games, including a 30-point home loss to Memphis in the final regular-season game.
Athletic director Jeff Compher stated his support for Lebo in a March interview with Hoist the Colours, and Lebo's contract runs through the 2020-21 season, according to the Greenville (N.C.) Reflector.
However, Compher, who was hired in 2013, was not the athletic director who hired Lebo, and Compher showed his willingness to make changes when football coach Ruffin McNeill was dismissed in December.
There is reason to believe the Pirates will be better next season. B.J. Tyson and Caleb White, East Carolina's top two scorers last season, will be back in 2016-17. The team's leading rebounder, Kentrell Barkley, who was named to the AAC's all-rookie team this past season as a freshman, returns too.
The Pirates lost Lance Tejada, who scored 17 points and hit five 3-pointers in the Pirates' loss to South Florida in the AAC tournament but was one of three players who transferred after the season. However, they added graduate transfer Andre Washington, a 7-foot shot-blocker who redshirted his senior season at Wake Forest after averaging 1.6 points and 0.9 rebounds in 2014-15.
Expectations are not particularly high at East Carolina, which has not been to the NCAA tournament since 1993 and only once since 1972. But Lebo needs to show some progress in his seventh season with the Pirates after losing 19 and 20 games the past two seasons and finishing with a winning conference record just once in his six seasons.
Johnny Jones, LSU
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Johnny Jones certainly has not been a disaster as LSU's head coach. The Tigers have won at least 19 games in each of his four seasons, and they finished tied for third in the Southeastern Conference each of the past two seasons.
However, LSU has reached the NCAA tournament only once under Jones, and failing to make the Big Dance this past season was a major disappointment after being ranked No. 21 in the preseason Associated Press poll. LSU had Ben Simmons, who would be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft a few months later and a strong surrounding cast, but still could not make it into the 68-team NCAA field in 2016. As Rob Dauster of NBCSports.com noted, "That is a bad look, one that could have justifiably cost him his job after this past season."
It wasn't certain Jones would be coaching at LSU next season until Yahoo's Pat Forde reported in late March that there would be no change in the LSU coaching staff (h/t New Orleans Times-Picayune).
Expectations will be lower next season, which may ease the pressure on Jones a bit, but will also make it difficult for the Tigers to get back to the NCAA tournament. Besides Simmons, LSU lost Keith Hornsby, the team's second-leading scorer last season, and guard Tim Quarterman, who averaged 11.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 2015-16.
The team will be built around guard Antonio Blakeney, who averaged 12.6 points as a freshman, and forward Craig Victor II, who averaged 11.5 points and 5.6 boards. The talent level across the board is not what it was this past season.
The grumbling that followed the 2015-16 season will not be silenced if the Tigers slip in the SEC standings in Jones' fifth year as coach. Somehow Jones must make amends for the disappointment of this past season.
Steve Alford, UCLA
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One poor season is not cause for alarm at most colleges, but most colleges don't carry the basketball tradition that UCLA lugs around. The Bruins have won 11 national titles and 37 regular-season conference crowns. Anything less than a championship is cause for concern.
Ben Howland was fired after the 2012-13 season even though the Bruins captured the conference regular-season title that year.
That opened the door for Steve Alford, who had success at Iowa and New Mexico. He provided satisfactory, if not exemplary, results in his first two seasons at UCLA, getting the Bruins to the NCAA tournament Sweet 16 each of those seasons even though UCLA failed to win the conference championship either season.
But then came the embarrassing 2015-16 season. Not only did the Bruins finish with a losing overall record at 15-17, but they were just 6-12 in the conference, leaving them in 10th place, two games behind the likes of Oregon State and USC. Making matters worse was the fact that UCLA ended the season on a five-game losing streak, including a 24-point, conference-tournament loss to archrival USC in the Bruins' final game.
Despite those disappointments, expectations for next season are high, as suggested by CBSSports.com's early preseason top-25 rankings for 2016-17, which placed the Bruins at No. 11.
Two issues account for the high hopes: The Bruins return virtually their entire team from last season, with the notable exception of Tony Parker, and UCLA will bring in two highly regarded recruits who should have an immediate impact. Point guard Lonzo Ball is ranked as the nation's No. 4 recruit by ESPN.com, and forward T.J. Leaf is ranked No. 13.
This should give Alford the ammunition to make a run at the Pac-12 title this coming season. If the Bruins fall short of that goal, there may be questions. If they finish in the middle of the pack and fail to make the NCAA tournament, there may be actions.
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