UFC 200 Primer: T.J. Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao Head-to-Toe Breakdown
T.J. Dillashaw (12-3) and Raphael Assuncao (23-4) are set for another three-round affair inside the Octagon.
No. 2-ranked Dillashaw and No. 3-ranked Assuncao, per Bleacher Report's June MMA rankings, first met in 2013 at UFC Fight Night 29. Assuncao would capture a controversial split decision. According to MMADecisions.com, the majority of the media scored the fight for Dillashaw.
Less than year later, Assuncao was slated to fight Renan Barao for the bantamweight championship. The Brazilian cited a rib injury as reason to pull out, Dillashaw replaced him and the American won the belt. So much has changed since that evening in 2013. Where does that take us at UFC 200?
Undoubtedly, the winner of this elite-level matchup will put their name at the top of the list for a title shot. A lot is riding on how they perform at the UFC's biggest event to date. Will Dillashaw get his rematch with Dominick Cruz, or will Assuncao finally claim his title shot?
This is your head-to-toe breakdown for Dillashaw vs. Assuncao II.
Striking
1 of 5
If this was the 2013 version of Dillashaw vs. Assuncao it would be more difficult to break down, but the change in Dillashaw's style makes this an easy choice.
The former champion is a better striker than Assuncao. Point blank.
Assuncao edged Dillashaw in their first encounter by three significant strikes. Dillashaw only got off 29 total. So, how much did his style and output change in the wake of that defeat? Since the loss, Dillashaw has posted no less than 109 significant strikes in a fight, per FightMetric.
With the increase in his output, it is difficult to deny Dillashaw will have the edge on the feet. His movement also makes him a more difficult target to hit, and that will be a problem for the more straightforward striker that is Assuncao.
There is always the possibility Dillashaw could get clipped, but outside of that remote chance, the stand-up battle should be firmly in favor of the former champion.
Edge: Dillashaw
Grappling
2 of 5
As noted, Dillashaw has improved greatly since their first fight. The improvement does not stop with his striking. He is also a better grappler.
Even so, this would still be Dillashaw's category to take. In their prior meeting, Assuncao failed on all six of his takedown attempts while Dillashaw completed two of his four. There is tangible evidence to support the fact that Dillashaw is simply better.
It's not conjecture.
Regardless, do not take Assuncao's grappling ability lightly. He can still get this fight to the mat, but more importantly, it will be his ability to stifle Dillashaw against the fence. It won't be the most beautiful strategy, but Assuncao will need to stop Dillashaw's movement to find success.
Edge: Dillashaw
Submissions
3 of 5
Dillashaw went for more submissions than Assuncao in their 2013 fight, but that doesn't mean he's the better submission artist. It merely means he was more aggressive.
Ironically enough, both men's last submission victory came over Vaughn Lee. What does that mean for this fight? Nothing, but it's an interesting note.
The American may be more aggressive in seeking finishes, but from a technical standpoint, it is hard to deny Assuncao's acumen on the mat. And that is why he will get the nod in this section. Assuncao is more selective, but also more apt to get the tap. His patience will also protect him should he find himself defending attacks from Dillashaw.
Technique over aggression wins out here.
Edge: Assuncao
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Assuncao's X-Factor: Inactivity
Assuncao is a fine fighter, but he's only fought twice since beating Dillashaw, and both fights were in 2014.
The division has had three champions in that time (Barao, Dillashaw, Cruz), and a new crop of bantamweights have emerged. We don't know what improvements, if any, he has made to his game in his time away from competition.
There is also the matter of cage rust. A slow start will almost guarantee a loss as Dillashaw runs circles around him.
Dillashaw's X-Factor: Tempo
Dillashaw's activity early in the fight will be crucial to how this fight plays out. His style favors high output, and low output opens the door for another contentious decision.
Assuncao is not going to match him throwing 100-plus significant strikes. It's not what he does. Dillashaw has a chance to influence the judges by simply being the more active fighter as he sets a high pace to the fight, and that pace will also work against Assuncao's cardio.
As this fight is only three rounds, Dillashaw should have no problem keeping his motor high throughout its duration.
Prediction
5 of 5
Dillashaw vs. Assuncao II will be a runaway.
There is no doubt Assuncao is a solid fighter, but Dillashaw is better—a lot better.
The fight will almost look as if Dillashaw is toying with Assuncao as the Brazilian struggles with the speed and movement of his opponent. The speed differential will allow Dillashaw to rack up points on the judges' scorecards. He will win each round, and could possibly net a 10-8 round if he is able to hurt Assuncao.
Getting the finish will be difficult. While Dillashaw will dominate the action, Assuncao is one of the toughest outs in the division. Dillashaw will play it smart and not put himself in harm's way. He'll work Assuncao over on the feet and complete several well-timed takedowns to secure the rounds.
The fight will be scored 30-27 or 30-26 across the board. This will never be in doubt.
Prediction: Dillashaw defeats Assuncao by unanimous decision
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