FBS Teams on Upset Alert vs. FCS Opponents in 2016
College football's top division split into two in the late 1970s, and ever since it's been the drive of FCS teams to show they can still compete with the big boys. They don't happen often, but whenever a lower-division team is able to knock off an FBS opponent, it's cause for celebration.
Last year saw FCS teams go 9-96 against the FBS. Though most of the victims were from the bottom of the FBS barrel—Washington State lost at home to Portland State to open the season and went on to win nine games. That was one of two FBS teams that Portland State knocked off, also beating North Texas four weeks later by a score of 66-7.
The Big Ten is eliminating games against FCS opponents and other power leagues are moving away from such matchups, but plenty still litter the 2016 schedule. All told, 49 power-conference schools and dozens of non-power teams will play at least one FCS squad this fall, and as is the case every year a few of them will end up getting felled by the little guy.
Which ones should be on the highest upset alert? We've got some likely possibilities to ponder.
Baylor Bears
1 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 2 vs. Northwestern State
A quick disclaimer: this list isn't one meant to predict FCS upsets of FBS teams, rather to point out some of the possible shockers. These upsets are going to happen, but most will involve bad FBS schools losing to decent FCS programs.
The Northwestern State/Baylor isn't such a matchup, but considering the turmoil Baylor's program has gone through this offseason it could be ripe for getting caught off guard.
Interim coach Jim Grobe has said he doesn't want to change anything about how the Bears operated on offense or defense at his introductory press conference, per ESPN:
"Our goal right now is to steady the ship and be as consistent day-to-day as we possibly can be.
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But it's inevitable that some things will be different. And those changes could be most evident after such a tumultuous offseason, and against an unassuming opponent that normally would serve as nothing more than a walkover.
Northwestern State was 4-7 last year, losing to Louisiana-Lafayette and Mississippi State by a combined 76 points, and in 2014, lost 70-6 at Baylor. But the Demons also won at Louisiana Tech that year, their 17th win against an FBS opponent.
Baylor will probably end up winning by 30 or more points, as expected. But don't be surprised if the game ends up being close for a while.
Iowa Hawkeyes
2 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 17 vs. North Dakota State
The Big Ten no longer allows its schools to schedule FCS opponents, but a handful of these games remain on tap due to pre-existing agreements. If recent history continues, Iowa might wish it had found a way to cancel this one.
There's no bigger giant killer among the FCS ranks than North Dakota State, the five-time defending national champions.
Since 2010, the Bison have faced five FBS teams, and beat them all. And those wins weren't squeakers, either. Their average margin of victory against Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado State, Kansas State and Iowa State was by 10.8 points, including a 34-14 win at Iowa State in 2014.
Iowa has never lost to a lower-division school, going 13-0 all-time against the FCS, and last year it handily beat an Illinois State team that tied NDSU for the Missouri Valley Conference title and finished 10-2. But that was in a season opener, with plenty of time to prepare for the opponent as well and without any other distractions.
This fall, the Hawkeyes will be hosting NDSU a week after their annual clash with rival Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. In 2015, Iowa went unbeaten in the regular season but needed a 57-yard field goal as time expired to beat Pittsburgh the week after facing Iowa State.
LSU Tigers
3 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 10 vs. Jacksonville State
Don't think LSU is at risk of getting picked off by an FCS team, something that's never come close to happening before? Tell that to Auburn, which last year needed to score with 39 seconds left just to force overtime before outlasting the Gamecocks in extra time.
That Jacksonville team went 13-2 and was the No. 1 seed in the FCS playoffs, reaching the title game before falling to five-time champion North Dakota State. Since then it has added four FBS transfers, including former Auburn running back Roc Thomas, who had 22 yards on eight carries against the Gamecocks.
LSU has made sure not to let any of its FCS opponents have a real chance to win, though. The Tigers' last such foe, Sam Houston State in 2014, only managed 206 yards in a 56-0 loss, but later went on to play for the FCS championship.
It's very unlikely the Tigers will overlook the Gamecocks, though this game does come in between what should be a tough opener against Wisconsin (in Green Bay) and the start of SEC play against Mississippi State.
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North Carolina Tar Heels
4 of 8
Matchups: Sept. 17 vs. James Madison, Nov. 18 vs. The Citadel
North Carolina makes this list as much because of quantity as quality of opponents. For the second year in a row, the Tar Heels are set to face two FCS opponents, the only power-conference team to do so in 2016. And they won't be cakewalks.
James Madison was the No. 5 seed in last year's FCS playoffs, having won at SMU en route to a 9-3 record. Meanwhile, The Citadel shocked South Carolina last November as part of a 9-4 season. Both teams have new coaches, though, and ironically one filled its vacancy with the other, as Everett Withers left James Madison for Texas State and was replaced by The Citadel's Mike Houston.
UNC has had far less turnover than those opponents—14 returning starters—but that doesn't include school career total offense leader Marquise Williams. What remains is a good squad, but one that heads into 2016 on a two-game losing streak after ending last year with losses to Clemson and Baylor.
The Heels could possibly be on a four-game skid when they play their home opener against James Madison, as they open against Georgia (in Atlanta) and then go to Illinois. The Citadel visit comes after UNC plays at rival Duke during the final month of the season.
UCF Knights
5 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 3 vs. South Carolina State
There were two winless teams in FBS last year: Kansas and UCF. Each lost at home to an FCS team along the way, and each opens 2016 against a lower-division school. It's natural to expect one or both of them to struggle with another FCS foe, but UCF's matchup is far more difficult than Kansas' game against a Rhode Island team that was 1-10 last year.
South Carolina State went 7-4 in 2015, with two of those losses by three points, and it ranked sixth in FCS in total defense at 280.6 yards allowed per game. The Bulldogs have never beat an FBS team, losing 73-7 at Clemson in 2014 in their latest effort. But they have a golden opportunity here against a UCF squad that was woeful last year and is starting over with a new coach.
Scott Frost takes over for George O'Leary, who retired midway through 2015, and the former Oregon offensive coordinator hopes to install a more free-flowing offense than the one the Knights used last year that produced just 13.9 points per game. That first game could have plenty of hiccups, so an upset isn't out of the question.
Washington Huskies
6 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 17 vs. Portland State
Washington has been a trendy dark horse pick this offseason, the product of a strong finish to 2015 behind a very young but talented offense. Chris Petersen enters his third season with the Huskies poised to contend in the Pac-12 North and possibly make waves nationally.
All that momentum could be squelched if they were to lose at home to an FCS team, however. Though it's not a death kneel, as Washington's rival showed in 2015 when Washington State fell to Portland State to start last season.
Portland State was the first FCS team since 2007 to knock off two FBS foes, and its 66-7 win at North Texas was the largest margin of victory ever by an FCS squad against an FBS opponent. The Vikings went 9-3 and made the playoffs under interim coach Bruce Barnum, who was given the permanent job.
Washington won't exactly be battle-tested coming into this game, opening at home against Rutgers and Idaho. It has never lost to an FCS team, though in 2014 it needed every point in a 59-52 win against FCS opponent Eastern Washington.
Washington State Cougars
7 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 3 vs. Eastern Washington
The last thing Washington State probably wants to do is repeat history. Though considering what happened after it lost to an FCS opponent in 2015, maybe that's not such a bad thing.
The Cougars, who averaged 31.5 points per game and had the top passing offense in the country, lost 24-17 at home to Portland State last September. Then it won nine of the next 12, including at Oregon, Arizona and UCLA, to finish with its best record in 12 years.
The loss to Portland State was a major shocker, less so after the Vikings won a second game over an FBS team a few weeks later. Falling to Eastern Washington wouldn't be as surprising, considering the Eagles' own potent offense and strong performances against FBS opponents. They scored 42 points at Oregon last year, after dropping 52 in a loss at Washington in 2014 and 49 in a 2013 win at Oregon State.
Cooper Kupp, the reigning Payton Award winner given to the top player in the FCS, has caught 28 passes for 510 yards and eight touchdowns against FBS teams. The senior is seventh on B/R's NFL draft expert Matt Miller's list of draft-eligible wide receivers for 2017, three spots ahead of WSU senior Gabe Marks.
West Virginia Mountaineers
8 of 8
Matchup: Sept. 10 vs. Youngstown State
At the very least, we're going to get plenty of emotion from this FCS/FBS clash. And not just from the players, as the respective coaches are two of the most excitable in the game today.
West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen is a self-professed Red Bull junkie, not to mention a coach that gets quite fired up during games. Though he pales in comparison to Youngstown State's Bo Pelini, the former Nebraska coach whose fondness for cats is almost as well-documented as his sideline blowups.
Last fall Pelini, lost it during the late stages of a home loss to defending FCS champ North Dakota State, a game his Penguins had a chance to win. They went 5-6 in his first season but nearly upset Pittsburgh to open 2015, losing 45-37.
Youngstown State most recently knocked off an FBS team in 2012, while West Virginia is 13-0 all-time against the FCS ranks.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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