NBA Mock Draft 2016: 1st-Round Predictions and Top Prospects on the Rise
Prognosticators should get at least one prediction right in their 2016 NBA mock drafts.
On Tuesday, Cleveland.com's Chris Haynes said the Philadelphia 76ers told Ben Simmons that they'd call his name first on Thursday night. The LSU forward's Instagram post appears to confirm the report:
Hey, everybody starts off 1-for-1. It's also a safe bet the Los Angeles Lakers will grab Duke's Brandon Ingram with the second overall pick, so let's make it two. Maybe we're all great at mock-drafting.
After those two, the difficulty level elevates from rookie to expert. The Boston Celtics will dictate the opening-round proceedings with their No. 3 choice, with as many as five players lurking as realistic targets. Constantly altering draft boards make their plans even tougher to foretell.
Mid-April projections bear little resemblance to most guesses on the cusp of draft night. A few players in particular have risen up the ranks to shake up the latest mock draft.
| 1. | Philadelphia 76ers | F Ben Simmons, LSU |
| 2. | Los Angeles Lakers | SF Brandon Ingram, Duke |
| 3. | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn) | PG Kris Dunn, Providence |
| 4. | Phoenix Suns | PF Marquese Chriss, Washington |
| 5. | Minnesota Timberwolves | SG Jamal Murray, Kentucky |
| 6. | New Orleans Pelicans | SG Buddy Hield, Oklahoma |
| 7. | Denver Nuggets (via New York) | PF Dragan Bender, Croatia |
| 8. | Sacramento Kings | SF Jaylen Brown, California |
| 9. | Toronto Raptors (via Denver) | PF/C Henry Ellenson, Marquette |
| 10. | Milwaukee Bucks | C Jakob Poeltl, Utah |
| 11. | Orlando Magic | C Skal Labissiere, Kentucky |
| 12. | Utah Jazz | SG Timothe Luwawu, France |
| 13. | Phoenix Suns (via Washington) | PF Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga |
| 14. | Chicago Bulls | PG Wade Baldwin IV, Vanderbilt |
| 15. | Denver Nuggets (via Houston) | SG Furkan Korkmaz, Turkey |
| 16. | Boston Celtics (via Dallas) | C Ante Zizic, Cibona Zagreb |
| 17. | Memphis Grizzlies | SG Malachi Richardson, Syracuse |
| 18. | Detroit Pistons | PF/C Deyonta Davis, Michigan State |
| 19. | Denver Nuggets (via Portland) | PG Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame |
| 20. | Indiana Pacers | PF Brice Johnson, North Carolina |
| 21. | Atlanta Hawks | SF Taurean Prince, Baylor |
| 22. | Charlotte Hornets | C Ivica Zubac, Bosnia |
| 23. | Boston Celtics | SG Denzel Valentine, Michigan State |
| 24. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami) | G Tyler Ulis, Kentucky |
| 25. | Los Angeles Clippers | SF DeAndre' Bembry, Saint Joseph's |
| 26. | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City) | SG Malik Beasley, Florida State |
| 27. | Toronto Raptors | G Dejounte Murray, Washington |
| 28. | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland) | C Cheick Diallo, Kansas |
| 29. | San Antonio Spurs | F Juan Hernangomez, Spain |
| 30. | Golden State Warriors | C Diamond Stone, Maryland |
Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington
Nobody has caught fire like the Washington Huskies' Marquese Chriss, a one-and-done freshman ranked outside the top 50 overall in the 2015 class, per 247Sports' composite rankings. He'd become the first such prospect drafted inside the top 10, a possibility that has improved from a stretch to a likelihood.
Medium's Jared Dubin charted the 18-year-old's rise from late-lottery option to someone frequently projected to the Phoenix Suns at No. 4:
The ultimate boom-or-bust prospect, Chriss' uncapped athleticism has turned him into the biggest predraft darling. In his deep dive on the Washington forward, The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks explained his appeal:
"The big selling point is his athleticism. At 6-foot-10, 233 pounds, with a 7-foot wingspan, Chriss is a big man who moves like a guard. He gets off the ground quickly and he plays way above the rim. He’s like a video game character whose turbo button is jammed. He just moved faster than anyone he faced this season; there aren’t many guys who can win a running-and-jumping contest against him.
"
Tjarks also examined Chriss' terrible rebounding rates and said the raw prospect "needs a lot of coaching and development to reach his potential." There are far better short-term options on the table.
Kentucky's Jamal Murray and Oklahoma's Buddy Hield can put the ball in the hoop, a skill that never goes out of style. Providence's Kris Dunn will create offense immediately. Analysts even credit Croatian prospect Dragan Bender with a steadier floor despite his international mystique.
Yet in a draft with no easy calls after Simmons and Ingram, the Suns will gamble with their first of three first-round choices.
Ante Zizic, C, Croatia
The 7-footer's not a realistic lottery candidate, but Ante Zizic could climb into the mid-to-late teens.
Playing in the Adriatic League and A-1 Liga, the 19-year-old Croatian center recorded a 65.3 field-goal percentage and a 19.5 rebounding percentage, per RealGM.com. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman pegged him as an energetic role player a la Anderson Varejao.
That's not a flashy comparison, and Wasserman also noted the lack of upside attached to an off-ball role player. His having such a high motor and being menace on the glass, however, should attract most contenders.
In Basketball Insiders' latest batch of mock drafts from four analysts, he went as high as No. 17 and no lower than No. 23. CBS Sports' Gary Parrish has him going No. 16 to the Celtics, who also hold the No. 23 choice.
ESPN Insider Chad Ford, who confirmed Zizic was staying in the draft on June 13, suggested teams with multiple first-round choices will consider him as a draft-and-stash option. After their No. 3 pick, the Celtics own two selections in his range as well as five second-rounders.
Having allowed the second-most rebounds per game (47.5) last year, they also can use a physical big man to continue their climb up the Eastern Conference hierarchy. With Zizic's remaining available at No. 23 looking less certain, the Celtics will reach for him at No. 16.
Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse
Malachi Richardson is carrying over momentum from a strong NCAA tournament, during which he helped spark the Syracuse Orange's stunning Final Four run with 15 points per game.
Before finishing strong, the guard didn't stand out in his freshman season, averaging 13.4 points on 36.9 percent shooting. Yet the New Jersey native showed promise down the stretch, and NBA teams will glowingly note his 7'0" wingspan and 10-inch hands, measurables from May's NBA Draft Combine courtesy of NBA.com.
The first-round hopeful is suddenly linked to the Milwaukee Bucks, who hold the No. 10 selection. Per Rick Braun for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Bucks director of scouting Billy McKinney is particularly impressed with Richardson's outside shooting.
"One of the things he does is he shot the ball well from the perimeter," McKinney said. "We always talk about the value of shooting. And then, being a player who's 6'5", 6'6" with the ability—as he gets better with his ball-handling—to be able to play both (shooting guard and small forward) positions."
Richardson shot 35.3 percent from three-point range, so he's not yet a potent archer from long range. A jumper, however, is teachable. Long arms and massive hands aren't.
Milwaukee isn't the only interested suitor. According to Jonathan Givony of The Vertical, the Memphis Grizzlies are "enamored" with the guard. They especially need a shooter, so they'd have to feel confident the prospect could fine-tune his shot enough to become a prototype NBA wing player.
It's a more sensible risk to take at No. 17 than inside the lottery.
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