NASCAR at Sonoma 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
NASCAR returns after a week-long vacation and it felt good. Like, really good.
And here we are, back on the west coast, for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 for the first road-course race of the season.
Ten turns, 1.99 miles of asphalt snaking all over Northern California’s wine country.
A year ago at this event, the Kyle Busch Summer Dominance Tour began when he won his first checkered flag en route to the top 30 and, eventually, the Sprint Cup Championship.
"This is awesome. Just unbelievable," Busch said in Jordan Bianchi’s SBNation.com story. "I can't say enough about my medical team, everyone who got me back in shape and back on the race track."
Busch may need a different kind of medical team now. The past four races have seen him finish outside the top 30 including three DNFs. Busch’s game needs to go under the knife.
And so he heads back to the track where his 2015 summer hot streak began.
Whether he wins or not is anybody’s guess, so let’s preview this week’s race as NASCAR returns from its Father’s Day vacation.
By the Numbers: Sonoma Raceway
1 of 8
Toyota/Save Mart 350
Place: Sonoma Raceway
Date: 3:19 p.m. (ET) on Sunday
TV Coverage: FS1
Distance: 218.9 miles, 110 laps
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
Current Driver Standings
2 of 8
1. Kevin Harvick, 526
2. Kurt Busch, 496
3. Brad Keselowski, 480
4. Carl Edwards, 472
5. Joey Logano, 455
6. Chase Elliott, 453
7. Jimmie Johnson, 441
8. Martin Truex Jr., 433
9. Kyle Busch, 417
10. Matt Kenseth, 409
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 383
12. Austin Dillon, 381
13. Denny Hamlin, 380
14. Jamie McMurray, 374
15. Ryan Newman, 369
16. Ryan Blaney, 364
Bold denotes winner and italics denote multi-race winner.
The Chase Bubble Watch
3 of 8
The Two Above the Line
Ryan Newman and Ryan Blaney swapped spots this week.
Newman now sits in 15th place while Blaney rests in 16th.
The Two Below the Line
Kasey Kahne and Trevor Bayne stand on the Chase doormat with their fists knocking on the door.
Both drivers climbed in the standings after Michigan. Kahne moved up one spot while Bayne moved up two.
Ten drivers have won races this season, which means three or four more drivers will win before the Chase.
We can expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win, maybe Chase Elliott. In fits and starts, Kahne and Bayne have showed winning potential this year. A win from drivers outside the top 16 will muddy the playoff situation.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Biggest Storyline: Can Kyle Busch Get Back to His Winning Ways?
4 of 8
After winning at Kansas, Kyle Busch has finished 30th, 33rd, 31st and 40th in his last four races, including three DNFs.
It’s symbolic of Joe Gibbs Racing’s recent cool streak.
A year ago, Busch used this race to start his championship run. He needed the win, then all he had to do was crest the top 30. Busch won four of five races during this stretch in 2015.
Now he needs some luck.
“Sonoma is so hard to predict, there are so many things that can happen there,” Busch said on "FOX in the Fast Lane," according to Marghiee Teshineh (h/t Radio.FoxNews.com) "It’s kind of like a Martinsville type short track road course race. You know where you can knocked out of the way pretty easy.”
The way he’s been going, this could be a fifth disaster in a row.
Biggest Storyline: Which Wildcard Will Reign?
5 of 8
The beauty of these quirky tracks is they become the great equalizer. Drivers that don’t have much of a chance at the intermediate tracks suddenly become contenders on short tracks and road courses.
Take A.J. Allmendinger, for example. He won at Watkins Glen in 2014 and that put him in the Chase.
A year ago Clint Bowyer, who hasn’t won a race since 2012, finished third.
Who will emerge from the middle of the pack? Will it be ’Dinger or Jamie McMurray? Maybe Ryan Blaney or even Kyle Larson?
Allmendinger won the pole a year ago, which made him say in Reid Spencer’s NASCAR.com story, “We knew that, if we go do our job, and if I do my job tomorrow, and we have solid pit stops, and we just take care of business, at the end we should give ourselves a chance. And that's all we can ask for."
Biggest Storyline: Sonoma in the Chase?
6 of 8
The Chase should be an amalgam of the regular season compressed into the tight parameters of the 10-race playoff.
There should be a superspeedway (Talladega), short/shorter tracks (Dover, Loudon, Martinsville, Phoenix), intermediate tracks (Chicagoland, Charlotte, Kansas, Texas, Homestead), but it needs a road course in there too.
FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen writes:
"The action at Sonoma Raceway and Watkins Glen International over the last few years has become what short-track NASCAR racing used to be: hard, physical competition with lots of swapped sheet metal, frayed tempers and hard feelings.
It is the very definition of must-see TV: Road-course racing nowadays is thrilling, brutal and unpredictable, with the boys—and girl—having at it from start to finish.
"
Shuffling the schedule around is no easy task considering weather, sponsors and coordinating congruent sporting events. There are many moving parts in NASCAR, more than many other sports.
Although, wouldn’t it be great to have a single round in the Chase be this total melee? Let’s say it involves a road course, a superspeedway and a short track—three venues that could lead to an unexpected winner and test the skills of these drivers when the pressure is highest.
A road course needs to be in the Chase. Move Chicagoland out of the Chase all together, parlay it with Michigan on the calendar and make the Chase that much more interesting.
Dark-Horse Pick: A.J. Allmendinger
7 of 8
Allmendinger won the pole in 2015, earned his first win at The Glen in 2014 and knows a thing or two about driving these road courses.
FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen writes:
"Sonoma has produced seven different winners in the last seven races, while Watkins Glen had six more. In the last 14 road-course races, a total of 12 different drivers have won, with Kyle Busch the only driver to win at both tracks.
These two tracks have produced some winners who frankly weren't as competitive on ovals as they were here, guys like Marcos Ambrose, Juan Pablo Montoya and AJ Allmendinger. Road-courses give underdogs a fighting chance.
"
You better believe Allmendinger has been visualizing what it would mean to win here over the past two weeks. His two best chances at wins in 36 racing weeks come at The Glen and Sonoma.
It’s time for him to throw it down.
A win from him makes things especially interesting in the Chase picture since he’s outside of the top 16 and would likely finish outside the top 16 in points even with a win on Sunday.
That means bubble drivers like Newman, Blaney, McMurray and even Earnhardt need to win.
And the Winner Is...Kevin Harvick
8 of 8
There are only five tracks where Harvick remains winless and Sonoma is one of them.
That said he does have four top-five finishes.
For all the attention the JGR cars have received this year, it’s Harvick who sits No. 1 in points (with teammate Kurt Busch in second).
Harvick finished fourth here a year ago and had the lead at The Glen before running out of gas, so his skill on these tracks ranks with the game’s best.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
