2016 NBA Free Agents: Predictions for Kevin Durant and More Top Stars
The summer of Kevin Durant—otherwise known as 2016 NBA free agency—will be much crazier than advertised.
Maybe it's due to the nature of Durant's personality or something else, but this summer hasn't received even close to enough hype.
A quick glance says a whole lot. Durant is on the market with major names such as Dwight Howard. Don't forget other stars such as Hassan Whiteside, Chandler Parsons, DeMar DeRozan and restricted names such as Andre Drummond.
Want major teams in the chaos? The Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics can all afford at least one max player.
Oh, and fresh off getting the Cleveland Cavaliers a title, LeBron James could opt to join the fray.
So get hyped. Here's a look at predictions for some of the biggest names.
Mike Conley
Quality floor generals aren't easy to come by, but the NBA Finals on their lonesome can describe the necessity of such a player after the performances by Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving.
Teams in need get a shot at Mike Conley this summer. He's 28 years old and spent the last nine years with the Memphis Grizzlies but could seek new pastures with the core of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol getting up there in age and the franchise simply not one for attracting major free agents.
In fact, this sounds like something the front office is quite afraid of, according to a note by ESPN.com's Ian Begley:
"Some members of the Grizzlies front office are growing a bit concerned about the possibility of Conley leaving in free agency, per a source with knowledge of the situation. Memphis, which plans on using a video featuring Grizzlies part-owner Justin Timberlake as part of its recruiting pitch, per a source, can offer Conley a five-year deal worth approximately $124 million. Other clubs can ink Conley to a max contract for four years worth approximately $92 million.
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This note pertains to the Knicks more than anything, which is quite fitting because it's likely where Conley ends up.
Look, Conley has made his cash and continues to inch closer to 30. The Grizzlies just went 42-40 and got swept out of the postseason in brutal fashion. With a team like New York, he has a better chance of finding himself on a roster with other free agents and major names competing for titles sooner than he would in Memphis, if ever.
Prediction: Conley signs with the Knicks.
Al Horford might be 30 years old, and he might not fit the new shoot-from-anywhere requirements of an NBA center, but this doesn't mean teams won't chase him on the open market.
A veteran of nine seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Horford still posted averages of 15.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game, helping the team land the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference before an ugly elimination at the hands of the eventual champions in the second round.
Not terrible for a team most figured would blow it all up at the deadline.
Still, something has to change in Atlanta, and that something might be Horford. He's an elite leader and offers plenty on the court, which is why a team like the Golden State Warriors comes up around his name, such as in this nugget by Fox Sports' Dieter Kurtenbach:
Again, it makes too much sense to ignore. If Horford has to wind up leaving the only team he has played for, he's going to go to a title contender and somewhere that actually deploys traditional centers.
Golden State is such a locale, though not on a full-time basis. Still, it's a shot at a ring, tougher conference not exactly mattering much to Horford if he joins a 73-win team.
Prediction: Horford signs with the Warriors.
Dwight Howard
Which team wants Howard seems like a much more applicable question than the one asking where he wants to go.
Granted, Howard hasn't opted out just yet, but most everyone knows how it will go. Howard already chewed his way out of Orlando and spent one miserable season with the Lakers before three awkward years of tension while trying to pair with James Harden in Houston.
Howard might have returned, but be real—the Rockets hired Mike D'Antoni as new head coach, the guy D12 clashed with in Los Angeles. There have already been some...interesting quotes by the new coach, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:
Let's predict another homecoming.
It sounds crazy to think Howard would return to Orlando and Orlando would embrace Howard, but anything is possible after what just happened in Cleveland.
The Knicks or Celtics, teams that might have wanted to sign Howard years ago, don't figure to be desperate enough anymore. Orlando, on the other hand, is a smaller market incapable of saying no to such a free-agency win, especially if it helps propel a young roster led by Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton and others to the playoffs.
Prediction: Howard signs with the Magic.
Kevin Durant
The summer of Durant will be pretty boring, folks, so maybe the lack of hype makes perfect sense.
Golden State clawing back from 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals and eventually losing to Cleveland doesn't mean Durant will tuck his tail between his legs and seek asylum elsewhere.
It might have the opposite effect.
Durant was a few quarters of better play away from a trip to the Finals, where maybe he and Russell Westbrook could have put up a better fight. And seeing Cleveland get a championship after all it has been through has to be encourage Durant to want to replicate the success for Oklahoma City.
So it's fun to think about Durant sporting Boston green or maybe forming a super team with Golden State or the San Antonio Spurs. And it's fun to think maybe he seeks an easier regular season in the Eastern Conference by joining the Washington Wizards or even surprising the globe and teaming up with Carmelo Anthony in New York.
But it's best to understand these conversations make more sense next offseason. There, Westbrook also hits the open market and the two can make decisions together—or at least craft their futures around the eventual moves.
For now, Durant figures to ink a one-year deal with a player option for another and take one more stab at this thing.
Prediction: Durant re-signs with the Thunder.
All stats and info via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
