How Much Is Barcelona's Neymar Worth Based on Form in 2015/16 Season?
Barcelona's attacking trident of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez, MSN as they have become collectively known, is one of the world's most fearsome combinations, a 100-goal-plus strike force that has helped the Catalan club win seven trophies in the past 14 months under Luis Enrique.
As with all high-quality players, there comes a time when—even if they remain happy and comfortable, contributing to the team and under contract—interest in their signature will come from the outside and a new cycle begins as they move clubs for tens of millions of the local currency.
For Barca and that front three, the most likely to leave earliest seems to be Neymar, at least judging by the rumours surrounding him.
While Spanish outlet Sport has continually updated the apparent interest in Neymar, the latest on the matter indicated the Brazilian forward told Paris Saint-Germain he wasn't joining them this summer and instead would pen a new contract at the Camp Nou, as reported by Joaquim Piera and Lluis Miguelsanz.
But Brazilian media outlet Universo Online has suggested an alternative, saying Neymar's representatives met PSG bosses and agreed that the No. 11 would make the switch next summer before the 2017-18 campaign (h/t Marca).
This year, next year...at some point, it seems inevitable that Neymar will go his own way and Barcelona will cash in. But to what extent? What is Neymar, voted the world's third-best player only six months ago, now worth?
Fee and Progress
Neymar signed for Barcelona at the start of the 2013-14 campaign for a fee of €57 million.
No, wait, it was more like €86.2 million, including those payments to the forward's parents.
Ah, but that was without the commissions and agent fees that made it a total of €95 million, according to El Mundo (h/t ESPN.com)—denied by Barcelona—or €111.2 million if the latest tax payment is included, according to Marca's Xavi Hernandez.
Whatever the total sum ends up being, it was enormous, and it involved many different parties negotiating to financially benefit from the transfer between Santos and Barcelona.
The importance of the purchase price, though, is that it represents a starting point for assessing Neymar's current value; it certainly won't have decreased since he joined the Camp Nou club, and it is sure to increase given his improvements in consistency and reliability in that time frame and a new contract looking likely.
The aforementioned report from Sport's Piera and Miguelsanz suggested the new contract will run through to 2022, with a release clause of €225 million.
Players do not generally leave for just the release-clause fee in Spain, as activating it means other taxes come into question to raise the overall total far higher, but it is at least a barometer of where the ceiling is—though not always a particularly helpful or realistic one.
Continued growth
Three seasons with Barcelona have been profitable for Neymar in a sporting sense as well as a financial one; while he initially struggled to find the back of the net in his first season, scoring nine in La Liga and 15 overall, he was still contributing to the team's buildup play, learning to play with new team-mates and so on.
The 2014 FIFA World Cup, for which he was the host nation's poster boy, was also a relevant factor as Neymar dealt with the pressure of carrying the team's hopes. Indeed, he was comfortably the best performer for Brazil until injury ended his participation...and the team crumbled without him.
A huge 39 goals in 14-15 helped Barca to the treble, including 22 in La Liga, while the season just ended saw him score 24 in league play and 31 overall.
It's not just goals, though; since that first season, his chance-creation totals have soared. Neymar is a constructive force for his team, dribbling and sprinting not simply to showcase his skills, but for effectiveness and with end product.
His 89 chances created in 15-16 placed him sixth in Europe's top five leagues and comfortably the highest in La Liga, according to Squawka. Add in being second for take-ons, being the second-most fouled and ranking in the top 10 for shots taken and it's clear that his average performance levels over the entire season were of an incredible standard.
Looking at his actual levels of performance tells a slightly different story.
During the period of the season when Messi was sidelined due to injury, there was no player on the planet in better form or more important to their team at a high level than Neymar was for Barcelona.
His run of displays was incredible as he played the part of creator, goalscorer, team talisman and individual showman. Confidence was clearly high as he showed he could lead the team without Messi, and the Catalan side were extremely grateful that was the case as goals flowed and wins followed.
That performance rate was unsustainable, though. It was incredible to watch, but a drop-off inevitably followed. Neymar had another, not quite as immaculate, burst of form midway through the season before having his poorest run toward the back end of the campaign.
It was a season of dramatic peaks and subsequent troughs in terms of his form, so consistency across an entire year is still something to aim toward, but all told, there is very little more that Neymar could do to be better than he was in 15-16.
Comparisons and market
So here's the real problem: In a market where the highest transfer fees keep rising, and even the mediocre, run-of-the-mill players leave for double-digit fees, who can compare to one of the world's finest?
Eden Hazard is positionally similar, and his role follows that of Neymar's, but in terms of quality and consistency, he's certainly a rung below—both at club level and for his national team.
Despite that, he is of a high level and gives a starting point; transfer talk has linked him with PSG and Real Madrid, with the Express' Joe Short suggesting a £70 million price tag.
Since players of the genuine top tier are so few and far between, positional comparisons are difficult to come by.
Juventus duo Paul Pogba and Paulo Dybala are probably the two who can approach the sums to rival Neymar's worth, both for effectiveness and for relative youth.
Pogba has been linked with a transfer to Real or Barca for several seasons now, with Real taking top spot in that particular ongoing battle this year, and Gazzetta Dello Sport (h/t ESPN FC's Michael Wade) said Juve want €160 million for the French midfielder.
That seems astronomical, and it is, but it's almost certain Pogba will cost well over €100 million.
Neymar's current release clause is double that, and his agent, Wagner Ribeiro, told Brazilian radio station Radio Jovem Pan (h/t Marca) there were already three clubs lined up and willing to pay it.
It doesn't mean Neymar will immediately be off, particularly if the new contract is signed soon, but it is indicative of his talent and the demand to snare his signature.
It would be a shock if Neymar left Barcelona for a fee dramatically under his release clause, but in the end, it's likely he will depart the Camp Nou at some point, and his transfer value now—taking into account what Barca paid for him (in total!) and the rumours around Pogba, a new contract and his release clause—must be considered around the €130-150 million region.
And for every additional year that Neymar remains at Barcelona, stars in the front line, wins trophies and plays a key role for Brazil on the international stage, that will only increase further.
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