10 Bold Predictions for the 2016 NBA Draft
The 2016 NBA draft is shaping up to be one of the wackier affairs in recent memory. Beyond LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram presumably becoming the first two picks, everything else is still up in the air.
The Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns all have multiple first-rounders—including at least one in the lottery—and figure to wheel and deal accordingly. A draft class that lacks anything approaching elite talent beyond the top two would only further incentivize those with lesser selections to shop around.
Throw in the coming craziness of this summer's free agency and how that will warp the proportions between rookie salaries and those of their veteran counterparts, and the Barclays Center could be the scene for some serious mayhem come June 23.
Let's see what the crystal ball says about this year's debutante pageant.
Boston Celtics Trade No. 3 Pick and More...But Not for Jimmy Butler
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The Boston Celtics have been kicking the tires on Chicago Bulls All-Star Jimmy Butler for months, per Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald (h/t Blog a Bull). According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chad Ford, the C's are back on Butler's scent, this time with the No. 3 pick in the 2016 draft at the ready.
Per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler, the Bulls weren't actively trying to trade Butler as of the regular season's end. Rather, they're simply taking calls for their best player, as any team in the midst of a semirebuild should.
Short of selling the farm to Chicago, Boston will be hard-pressed to pry Butler from the Bulls' clutches. Should that effort fall short, look for Celtics general manager Danny Ainge to turn his attention to another former trade-deadline target: Philadelphia 76ers big man Jahlil Okafor.
Per Woelfel's Press Box's Gery Woelfel, the Sixers are shopping both Okafor and Nerlens Noel, with the hope of snagging one of this year's top guards (i.e., Providence's Kris Dunn, Kentucky's Jamal Murray) with another high pick.
Of the teams in that range, only Boston, with its ragtag group of bigs, would seem like a fit for such a deal. And without a trade for a bona fide All-Star on the table, the Celtics might bite on one of Philly's frontcourt players if the price is right.
Chicago Bulls Look for Other Ways to Move Up
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Just because the Bulls are loath to relinquish Jimmy Butler doesn't mean they won't seek a spot in the top five of this year's draft.
According to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, the team had its sights set on drafting a point guard last year before Bobby Portis dropped to No. 22. The Bulls also took a shine to Providence's Kris Dunn at this year's combine.
Dunn said of going to Chicago, per Johnson:
"I would have no problem being behind an MVP player. Knowing so much about him, his situation is almost similar to mine through injuries. I would want to know how he kept overcoming it, how he kept bouncing back, what keeps him motivated. I would want to know how he became that MVP player, how he was that Derrick Rose everyone was in love with, how you stay humble through that process.
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Dunn wouldn't have to wait long for his turn in Chicago. Chances are the Bulls, short of dealing Butler, would have to move Rose to slide up from No. 14. Per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler, Rose might be a more likely trade candidate after draft day, though:
"At this point, it’s unclear which teams (if anyone) has made a real offer for Rose, especially given his $21.3 million salary. But it was said a few times [at Adidas Eurocamp in Treviso, Italy] that the name being talked about most among teams and scouts in Italy was not Butler, but rather Rose and there is a sense that a team that misses on a starting-caliber point guard in free agency may turn to the Bulls.
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If the Bulls can somehow parlay Rose into a shot at another top point guard prospect before then, don't be surprised to see decision-makers Gar Forman and John Paxson pull the trigger.
Dragan Bender Drops Outside the Top 5
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Based on sheer talent, Dragan Bender might be the best prospect in this year's draft. At the least, the 7'0" Croatian sensation should be in the running right behind the consensus top two.
As Lars Anderson wrote for Bleacher Report: "According to NBA scouts, Bender is indeed on the short list of candidates to be a top-three pick in the draft on June 23, along with the likes of forward Ben Simmons of LSU and forward Brandon Ingram of Duke."
But rarely, if ever, does the draft play out with teams taking the best player available without regard for need or position. Nor do front offices often agree on what that order would be.
At No. 3, the Celtics might not want to wait around for an 18-year-old to develop while they're already entering "win-now" mode.
After Simmons and Ingram, the crop of potential draftees will feature plenty of gifted backcourt options (e.g., Kris Dunn, Jamal Murray, Buddy Hield), plus teams seeking help at guard.
The Sixers, should they trade up from their pair of picks in the 20s, would be hot after a perimeter player to complement their collection of bigs. So would the Minnesota Timberwolves, depending on how they feel about Zach LaVine. The Phoenix Suns are stocked at those spots but could use help on the wing from someone like Cal's Jaylen Brown.
Thus, a teenaged European project like Bender could see his stock on draft day fall by little fault of his own.
Denver Nuggets Try to Trade Up
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If the Celtics are the Corleones of this year's NBA draft, the Denver Nuggets might be the Tattaglias, ready to seize the day should the opportunity arise.
The Nuggets are flush with picks—Nos. 7, 15, 19, 53 and 56—but short on spots to fill. At guard, they have youngsters Emmanuel Mudiay, 20, and Gary Harris, 21, coming back to join Jameer Nelson. On the wing, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler will be looking to bounce back from injury, with Will Barton ready to bounce to the hoop, per usual. In the middle, the Euro trio of Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne should yield a sturdy rotation at center.
Denver doesn't have any gaping holes to fill but has a pile of assets sitting around. What better way to put those picks to work than as a stepladder into the upper rungs of this draft? Or, perhaps, as a means of snagging a more veteran big to balance out the youth movement up front?
Short of a power move like that, the Nuggets would do well to spend their picks on high-upside projects (Dragan Bender, Washington's Marquese Chriss, Jamal Murray, etc.) in the early going and international sleepers later on.
Milwaukee Bucks Also Try to Move Up
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The Milwaukee Bucks would be hard-pressed to jump up from their perch at No. 10 without offering one of their young studs in return. What they can do, though, is package their second-rounders.
According to Woelfel's Press Box's Gery Woelfel, that's what the Bucks are aiming to do: "The Bucks have three draft picks, but with their roster saturated with so many young players already, look for them to move one or both of their second-round picks. There has been some chatter the Bucks would like to package their Nos. 36 and 38 picks for a late first-round pick."
Teams have a tendency to value early second-round selections. With those picks, front offices can snag talent comparable to what they'd find late in the first round, but without having to offer guaranteed contracts with predetermined salary slots.
If Sam Hinkie hadn't already relinquished his post with the Sixers, he'd probably be keen to snap up the Bucks' second-rounders in exchange for one of Philly's late firsts (Nos. 24 and 26). Instead, Bucks general manager John Hammond will have to try his luck with the 76ers' Bryan Colangelo or any of the other executives lurking on the lower end of the first round.
Brooklyn Nets Buy into the Draft
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Money hasn't been an obstacle for the Brooklyn Nets in recent years, so why would it be when it comes to the NBA draft? The Nets' 2016 pick (No. 3 overall) is already betrothed to Boston by way of the 2013 Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce blockbuster, so any selections for the host city would have to come via trade or purchase.
According to Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy, the league expects the Nets to get into the first round.
A pick between Nos. 20 and 30 should suffice for grabbing a potential impact player. Sean Marks, Brooklyn's new general manager, hails from a San Antonio Spurs front office that has a long history of unearthing gems late in the first round, from Tony Parker to Tiago Splitter and George Hill, to Cory Joseph and Kyle Anderson.
Perhaps the cost-conscious Sixers would be willing to part ways with one of their late first-rounders for a nominal fee. Maybe the Celtics (No. 23) or Phoenix Suns (No. 28) won't mind a quick cash grab, given all the other picks at their disposal. It's possible Marks' old employer in the Alamo City might budge at No. 29.
Combine a sprinkle of that Spurs magic with Marks' background in the international scene, and the Nets could turn any one of those picks into a valuable youngster for their tenuous future.
New York Knicks Find Their Way In, Too
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Not to be outdone by their Big Apple rivals, the New York Knicks figure to factor into this year's draft somehow.
They wouldn't do so just to spite the Nets, though. The Knicks have plenty of their own needs to address—point guard, chief among them.
Team president Phil Jackson, for his part, didn't think that was much of a concern in March.
"Chasing a point guard, where it becomes just an obsession, isn't necessary," Jackson said, per ESPN.com's Ian Begley. "It's not necessary. We can play the game without that."
However, that was before the Zen Master hired Jeff Hornacek to the be the Knicks' next head coach. Hornacek's best days as coach of the Phoenix Suns came in Year 1, when he had two point guards, Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe, pushing the pace.
That doesn't mean he'll demand the same setup in New York. What he could use, though, is someone to captain his attack, however much of the triangle is involved.
According to Begley, Indiana's Yogi Ferrell could be the choice if the Knicks barge into this draft: "The Knicks don't have a draft pick but are expected to acquire one. The club has worked out several prospects in recent days at the practice facility, with an emphasis on the triangle offense."
Ferrell might not be the solution at the point, but he'd at least give Hornacek and Jackson another option, along with Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant, to try at that spot.
Teams Pass on Top Collegians...and Immediately Regret It
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Tyler Ulis and Denzel Valentine both look like the types of players who, in time, will get some folks around the league fired for overlooking them.
Ulis, a sophomore out of Kentucky, would probably be a top-10 pick if not for his size (5'9"). He might've been a first-rounder anyway had health not intervened. Per Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler:
"Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis is said to have a pretty significant hip issue, which some believe may require surgery down the line. A medical red flag combined with his size, Ulis could slide deep into the first round or even over into the second depending on how team medical staffs view his situation.
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Similar concerns about Valentine's knee could cost the Michigan State senior (and Associated Press Player of the Year), even though he insists he's fine. Valentine told Woelfel's Press Box's Gery Woelfel:
"This is kind of catching me by surprise. I’ve had knee things throughout my career, but I never really missed many games. My injuries were very minor. I don’t have to do any more surgeries; I don’t have to take any precautions. There’s not anything holding me back. I’m healthy now, and I’ll continue to strengthen my legs and continue to take care of my body.
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Other teams might shy away from Valentine because of his other physical limitations—namely, his so-so athleticism—or his age (22).
For both Ulis and Valentine, any drop down the draft board would be another opportunity to not only prove people wrong, but also to strengthen their own stocks as surprises.
Zhou Qi Tumbles into the Second Round
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On talent alone, Zhou Qi is a first-round pick. At 7'2" with a 7'8" wingspan, Zhou would arrive stateside as a two-time block champion in the Chinese Basketball Association.
According to Liberty Ballers' Andrew Crawford, the big man for the Xinjiang Flying Tigers has expanded his game far beyond swats under the tutelage of the same man who turned Yao Ming into the No. 1 pick in 2002:
"At his best, Zhou moves like a deer and can obviously swat shots into the next timezone. But his development has also been helped by the presence of Liu Qiupeng as head coach. A widely respected coaching mind, Liu is nicknamed ‘Little Zhuge Liang' after a military strategist from Chinese antiquity and was Yao's coach at both the youth and pro levels during the late 1990's. Though Liu's arrival in Xinjiang was more about helping the team make the playoffs, the veteran tactician was inevitably going to develop Zhou. Unsurprisingly, the latter has already started to showcase an improved mid-range game, suggesting he can be more than a straight-up rim-protector.
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But, fair or unfair, questions about Zhou—beyond his frail 218-pound frame—are enough to drag down his draft stock. Some NBA scouts aren't sure he's 20 years old, per basketball reporter David Pick. Yi Jianlian's NBA failure a few years ago could undermine Zhou's bid to make China relevant in the NBA again.
So, too, could his contract. Per The Vertical's Jonathan Givony, Zhou will make the leap to the league in 2017, after much wrangling between his representatives and his team in China.
His selection, then, will amount to a flier, albeit one that could pay huge dividends for a team down the line. Franchises looking to swing for the fences (and save some cap space) at the end of the first round might have the stomach for all of this.
Then again, with veteran salaries set to explode, there may be too many red flags in Zhou's case for a squad to sacrifice a top-30 spot for such an unknown.
Jaylen Brown Will Be the Biggest Wild Card on the Board
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Ask scouts and front office folks around the NBA about Jaylen Brown, and you're bound to hear as wide a range of opinions as any 2016 draft prospect.
He's a unique, curious person...but his intelligence could scare off squads that prefer listeners and doers over questioners. He's already built for the league (6'7", 225 pounds)...but he might be too reliant on his size and strength. He's shot the ball well during his workouts...but he posted poor percentages in college at Cal (29.4 percent from three).
His game translates better to the pros...or it doesn't translate at all.
Brown explained the transition after his workout with the Philadelphia 76ers, per Sixers.com's Brian Seltzer:
"NBA shot clock is quicker, so there’s going to be a lot more transition, and that favors my game, but I have to get better at that as well. Even though it’s a strength, it’s a different pace, it’s a different atmosphere playing with grown men. It’ll be different, but the learning curve, trying to make it as quick as possible.
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The fact the Sixers brought in Brown could point to the team's interest in taking him early, perhaps with another top-five pick yet to be acquired. But if Philly doesn't jump up—and Brown doesn't schedule any more auditions before draft day—the Georgia native could just as easily slip toward the edge of the top 10.
Not that he's at all worried about that.
"I’m not concerned with being a top whatever pick," Brown said, per Seltzer. "I want to be a top player in the NBA one day. This is just a milestone; this is just a checkpoint that I’m going through. I’ve still got a long way to go."
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