Mkhitaryan Contract Decision Will Mark Turning Point in Dortmund History

Borussia Dortmund have already lost two key players during the summer transfer window in Ilkay Gundogan and captain Mats Hummels. And now, they risk the departure of a third: Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

The 27-year-old's contract at Signal Iduna Park expires in 2017, and despite the club's best efforts, he still has not agreed to an early extension of his working agreement with the Ruhr side.

Speaking to Bild (in German) on Monday, BVB sporting director Michael Zorc announced that he expected Mkhitaryan's future to be settled this week, whether the Armenian decides to commit his long-term future to Dortmund or not. The tabloid claimed interest from Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal, with the Premier League trio all reportedly willing to pay €30 million to release the player from his current contract.

Dortmund have been here before, they've lost at least one of their best players almost every year since they won the Bundesliga in the spring of 2011: First it was Nuri Sahin, then Shinji Kagawa, then Mario Gotze, then Robert Lewandowski and finally Hummels and Gundogan. Yet what lies on the horizon this week is not any ordinary contract negotiation situation.

If there is any Dortmund player who ought to be loyal to Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel, it's Mkhitaryan. The attacking midfielder had struggled for two seasons under Jurgen Klopp, and by the end of the second, he looked to be on his way out the door.

However, when Tuchel arrived, Mkhitaryan sprung into form. The new trainer found a way to get the most out of the Armenia international, who thrived. He stepped into Marco Reus' shoes as BVB's leader in attacking midfield and recorded a remarkable 23 goals and 32 assists in all competitions over the course of the 2015-16 campaign.

Perhaps Mkhitaryan will pen a new deal at Dortmund. If he does, it could leave the Ruhr side in a competitive position next season. True, they will miss their other departed stars, but if they manage to keep the Armenian, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Marco Reus, their front line will be formidable. Youngsters like Julian Weigl will be a year older and a year better, so the net loss might not be all that bad for Dortmund.

If Mkhitaryan does not extend his contract, however, Dortmund should and probably will sell him. His is a position where a good replacement can be found. And given that there are three attacking-midfield positions in Tuchel's team, it's acceptable if an ersatz-Mkhitaryan struggles initially. Thus, unlike the situation they faced with Lewandowski, Dortmund won't feel as pressured to allow the player to run out his contract should he opt not to extend.

Rather than force Mkhitaryan to stick around for another year and lose him for free, Dortmund would be wiser to just take the cash and sell him to the highest bidder.

It would be tempting to try to bring in another star, but short of a real, world-class talent, there is no use. BVB have gone the route of using good but not world-class players before, and it got them in trouble.

Having players like Jakub Blaszczykowski, Kevin Kampl, Jonas Hofmann and more competing for a starting role didn't bring much extra class to the lineup and only resulted in all three of the aforementioned players feeling unsettled and ultimately leaving after failing to secure adequate playing time.

Michael Probst/Associated Press

Dortmund have plenty of world-class potential in their squad already, and although they might be able to sign options who are better for the short term, that might be with little purpose.

Dortmund won't contend for the Champions League trophy, not in their first year after losing Hummels, Gundogan and Mkhitaryan. On the domestic stage, it doesn't matter whether they finish second or third, as even fourth would leave them in contention for a spot in UEFA's elite tournament in the season to follow.

The target of fourth place or better should be attainable for Dortmund under Tuchel, who has gained a reputation for being a master of doing great things with limited resources. 

It would be better to give the likes of Ousmane Dembele and Christian Pulisic adequate playing time to help them achieve all their potential than to stifle their development on the bench as a stopgap measure without world-class potential starts ahead of them.

It could be a great opportunity for the youngsters, with Mkhitaryan leaving and Reus set to miss potentially six months, per Bild (h/t Sport 1, in German). It's a lot to ask teenagers like Dembele and Pullisic to step up, but Dortmund have done so in the past, and they may not have many options.

If Mkhitaryan stays in Dortmund, there will be a chance for Tuchel to rebuild the team within a similar tactical framework.

If the 27-year-old chooses to go, however, it may be best for Tuchel to simply go back to the drawing board and start over—too many stars will have left to salvage much.

It's a turning point, and whether Mkhitaryan stays or goes will have a sizable effect on the direction Dortmund take in the next few years.

@Mr_Bundesliga