The Top 10 2017 Draft Prospects in the Big 12
The 2016 NBA draft is just around the corner, but we're already looking ahead to determine where Big 12 stars like Kansas' Josh Jackson and Iowa State's Monte Morris are likely to be chosen in the 2017 NBA draft.
Most draft-projection sites have been too busy churning out 2016 content to start worrying about next year's crop of prospects just yet, but there are three that have posted full, two-round mock drafts for 2017 since late May: DraftExpress, NBA Draft Room and NBADraft.net.
Those projections were used as a sanity check for our top 10. If a player's name appears on at least two of those three mock drafts, he should probably make the cut. Conversely, if a player's name doesn't appear on any of them, perhaps he shouldn't rank in our top five.
With those way-too-early projections as a loose guide, here are the top NBA prospects to watch in the Big 12 during the 2016-17 college basketball season, listed in ascending order of projected pick.
Honorable Mentions
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Matt Thomas, Iowa State
Naz Long was shut down eight games into the 2015-16 season, and Thomas capitalized on the opportunity, becoming the go-to three-point shooter for the Cyclones. He made 89 triples and should be even more heavily involved this season without Georges Niang, Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay to feed.
Frank Mason, Kansas
Mason isn't nearly as pesky with his on-ball defense as Mario Chalmers was, but there are a lot of similarities between the current Kansas point guard and the one who turned a second-round pick in the 2008 NBA draft into a decent NBA career and a pair of NBA championships. Mason won't be a first-round pick, but he should be a mid-to-late second-rounder after yet another Big 12 title.
Udoka Azubuike, Kansas
The 7'0" man child is probably the third-best draft prospect in the conference, but it's a bit unlikely that he declares after just one season with Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg blocking his path to playing time. However, there's a chance he'll follow in the footsteps of Joel Embiid by earning a starting job just one month into his freshman season, depending on how quickly he develops as a college big.
Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
Though a fringe draft prospect at best, Woodard has started every single game for the Sooners over the past three seasons and has career rates of 3.9 assists per game and 39.2 percent three-point shooting. That durability and production won't go unnoticed. Peyton Siva briefly made it into the NBA as the 56th overall pick in 2013. No reason Woodard couldn't do the same.
10. Andrew Jones, Texas
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
With Javan Felix graduating and Isaiah Taylor declaring for the draft, the door is wide open for Andrew Jones to immediately start at point guard for the Longhorns as a freshman.
Jones just barely missed the cut for a 5-star ranking on 247Sports. The 6'4" combo guard has been rated as the 31st-best overall recruit in this year's class and will be put to the test on a nightly basis in Big 12 play. Against the likes of Frank Mason, Jordan Woodard, Jawun Evans and Monte Morris, Jones will have plenty of opportunities to prove that he can hang with some of the best point guards the college game has to offer this season.
Three-point shooting isn't Jones' forte, but that didn't stop Taylor from becoming a star over the past three years. Taylor shot below 30 percent from downtown in his career with Texas, yet he was named an All-Big 12 first-teamer in 2015-16 behind 15.0 points and 5.0 assists per game.
Look for Jones to come in and fill that void. He's an explosive guard with impressive court vision. He can get buckets at or near the rim with ease and is a freight train in fast-break situations. We'll find out what he can do as the floor general of a young roster, but his talent should shine through even if Texas struggles to jell.
9. Kerwin Roach, Texas
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 60
While Andrew Jones figures to be the offensive star of the Longhorns backcourt, Kerwin Roach might be the more coveted player because of his skills on both ends of the floor.
As a team, Texas didn't force many turnovers last season—compared to the way head coach Shaka Smart's teams did at VCU, at any rate. But Roach was the exception to the rule, leading the team in steal rate by a wide margin. He had 2.9 steals for every 100 possessions, while second place on the roster was a tie between Javan Felix and Demarcus Holland at 1.8.
Roach also averaged a team-high 11.7 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions, and he improved as a shooter as the season progressed. After shooting just 26.9 percent from three-point range in nonconference play, he connected on 44.0 percent of those attempts during the Big 12 portion of the season.
Toss in a solid assist rate (2.7 per 40 minutes) and a strong rebounding rate for a 6'4" guard, and Roach is the type of guy who could be given all the minutes he can handle. Scouts will show up to watch Jones and Jarrett Allen, but they might leave even more impressed with Roach's ability to impact the game.
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8. Devonte' Graham, Kansas
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DraftExpress Projection: 52
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
Behold the power of three-point shooting.
In most regards, Frank Mason is better than Devonte' Graham. Assists, rebounds, free-throw rate and turnover rate all favor the team leader. But Graham is a more lethal shooter, connecting on 44.1 percent of his three-point attempts last season and finishing the season with 32 more made triples than Mason.
Because of that, Graham has a slightly better chance of getting drafted than Mason.
That isn't to say that Graham is exclusively a gunner. In fact, he does many things well and made his biggest impact late in the season, as he finished the Big 12 tournament (three games) with 52 points, 19 assists, 12 rebounds and 11 steals. That all-around game nicely supplements his three-point prowess and should be enough to get him into the second round of the NBA draft if he decides to leave after his junior year.
7. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Kansas
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DraftExpress Projection: 25
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 41
Here we go again.
Before he even arrived in America, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk was supposed to be a lottery pick. A 6'8" 16-year-old with a silky-smooth stroke, it was hard not to be enamored with his potential.
But we're still waiting on that guy to show up more than once in a blue moon for Kansas.
When Mykhailiuk is feeling it, he's incredible. His 23-point game (on 11 shots) in the NCAA tournament against Austin Peay serves as proof of that. Unfortunately, that was the only time he did anything in the final month of the season—he scored a combined 11 points in Kansas' other seven games in March.
It temporarily looked like Mykhailiuk might be headed for a starting job this season, which likely would have gotten him into a better rhythm. But with the signing of top recruit Josh Jackson, Svi figures to spend another year coming off the bench. Given how well that has gone the past two seasons, a projected first-round pick feels a bit too aggressive.
6. Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
The first of two players in our top 10 that the draft experts appear to have completely forgotten about, Jawun Evans was having a sensational freshman season before it was cut short by a shoulder injury.
Though he only lasted 21.5 games, Evans averaged 12.9 points, 4.9 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 47.5 percent from three-point range.
The full list of players in the past nine seasons to average at least 4.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.0 steals while shooting at least 45.0 percent from downtown is Evans, Kyle Anderson (UCLA) and Roosevelt Jones (Butler)—and Jones shouldn't even count, because he only attempted one three-pointer. Evans put up his numbers while playing just 28.9 minutes per game, too.
And while Oklahoma State wasn't great with him in the lineup, the Cowboys were hopelessly lost without him. They were 11-10 prior to the game in which he suffered his injury and went 1-10 the rest of the way.
Provided he makes a full recovery, Evans should be as much of a go-to, multifaceted weapon in this offense as Marcus Smart was from 2012-14.
5. Johnathan Motley, Baylor
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DraftExpress Projection: 50
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 32
Johnathan Motley only played 20.9 minutes per game as a sophomore, but he made the most of them. He averaged 31.4 points, 14.5 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per 100 possessions while shooting 61.4 percent from the field.
Those numbers don't quite put him in the same category with top-three picks like Jahlil Okafor, Joel Embiid or Greg Oden, but they're comparable to the numbers that late first-round picks like Purdue's JaJuan Johnson, Duke's Mason Plumlee and Arkansas' Bobby Portis posted in their final seasons.
And Motley's flower has only just begun to bloom.
With Rico Gathers leading the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and Taurean Prince commanding a ton of touches as a superb all-around player, Motley was never a go-to guy for Baylor—save for a pair of games that Gathers missed, in which Motley averaged 18.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks.
Now that Gathers and Prince are both out of years of eligibility, it's Motley's crew. He should be one of the most dominant frontcourt players in the conference. Gathers exploded from 6.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per games as a sophomore to 11.6 of each as a junior after an increase in playing time of almost 68 percent. Look for Motley to make a similar leap this year.
4. Carlton Bragg, Kansas
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DraftExpress Projection: Undrafted
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted
Yes, we're disregarding our guideline against putting players in the top five if they aren't projected to be drafted by any of the three mocks, but the experts dropped the ball on this one. Carlton Bragg is a former 5-star recruit who is about to become the primary frontcourt weapon for one of the favorites to win the national championship.
Granted, that didn't work out too well for Chris Walker and Florida in 2014-15, but everyone had Walker projected as a first-rounder heading into that season. How is it possible that Bragg isn't even showing up in any 2017 mock drafts?
Foul trouble plagued Bragg throughout his freshman season, especially late in the year. Between the Big 12 tournament and the first game of the NCAA tournament, Bragg committed 16 fouls in 40 minutes. But he also had 28 points and 12 rebounds in those 40 minutes, so it was anything other than all bad news.
The combination of Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor and Cheick Diallo restricted Bragg's playing time, but he ought to start at power forward alongside Landen Lucas with those three players out of the picture. Provided he can routinely play more than 10 minutes without fouling out, he should be flying up the draft boards in no time.
3. Monte Morris, Iowa State
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DraftExpress Projection: 29
NBADraft.net Projection: Undrafted
NBA Draft Room Projection: 52
Might this be the year that more people finally come to appreciate Monte Morris as an elite guard?
In his three-year career, Morris has averaged 5.2 assists and 1.2 turnovers per game. Sports-Reference.com only began tracking turnovers in 2007-08, but in those nine seasons, there have only been six instances of a player averaging at least 5.0 assists and fewer than 1.5 turnovers in a single season. Flip the switch to career averages that meet those two parameters, and there are only two players: Morris and Tyler Ulis—and Ulis just barely fit under the turnovers threshold at 1.49 per game.
In fact, Morris and Ulis aren't all that different, aside from the fact that Morris is five inches taller and a more capable scorer inside the arc.
Morris (career per 40 minutes): 13.0 points, 6.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 1.4 turnovers, 52.4% 2PT, 38.3% 3PT
Ulis (career per 40 minutes): 15.0 points, 7.0 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 2.0 turnovers, 46.2% 2PT, 37.1% 3PT
And like Ulis, Morris barely saw the bench last season. Kentucky's point guard averaged 36.8 minutes per game, while Iowa State's leader was out there for 38.0 minutes per night without a drop in production. If Morris continues to play that well this year without Georges Niang stealing his spotlight, he should be a late first-round pick who immediately delivers at the next level.
2. Jarrett Allen, Texas
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DraftExpress Projection: 10
NBADraft.net Projection: 16
NBA Draft Room Projection: Undrafted*
In congratulating Duke on acquiring Marques Bolden in late May, Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports casually mentioned that he feels Jarrett Allen is the best center in this year's crop of recruits. ESPN's recruiting experts agree, as Allen is the top-rated center in the ESPN 100—albeit at No. 15 overall, well behind the next player on our list.
Like the last Longhorn to wait until the offseason to make his decision (Myles Turner), Allen is a thin giant who has legitimate range on his jumper and makes blocking shots look like an effortless art.
It's no surprise Texas desperately wanted to sign the hometown hero.
"When you go all in for one player, you open yourself to a difficult scenario if you don't get him," head coach Shaka Smart recently told Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis. "There were other guys we had passed on because we wanted to recruit (Allen)."
Unlike Turner—who had to share frontcourt minutes with the cavalry of Jonathan Holmes, Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert—Allen should be the main guy in the frontcourt for the Longhorns. There's also Shaquille Cleare, incoming freshman James Banks and incoming transfer Mareik Isom, but there's little question as to who will be the star in the paint for Texas.
*Though still listed as undrafted for this coming season, NBA Draft Room has Allen at No. 15 in its 2018 NBA mock draft.
1. Josh Jackson, Kansas
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DraftExpress Projection: 4
NBADraft.net Projection: 1
NBA Draft Room Projection: 2
"In my 14 years in the business, Josh Jackson is the top shooting guard I've ever scouted," said Jerry Meyer, the director of basketball scouting for 247Sports.
"Quite simply, he is one of the better prospects we've seen over the past five years," Brian Snow of Scout.com said.
What's kind of crazy about these assessments is that Jackson isn't a great shooter or a freak-of-nature athlete. You would think these talent evaluators were discussing a Kevin Durant 2.0 who's going to put up 26 points per game and win all of the individual awards before departing for the pros. But really, Jackson's best asset is probably his Energizer Bunny-like motor.
By all accounts, he is the most hyper-competitive player in this year's class of recruits. On both ends of the court, he plays every possession as though he has something to prove. So go ahead and throw away your "Bill Self loves to bury freshmen on his bench" narrative, because Jackson will put forth more effort in his first 10 minutes of college hoops than Cliff Alexander did in his entire freshman season.
Provided Jackson can already shoot better than Isaiah Briscoe (46.0 percent from free-throw line, 13.5 percent from three) and improves as a shooter throughout his one season at Kansas, he might be the first guard taken No. 1 overall since Kyrie Irving in 2011.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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