Belgium vs. Italy Is a Matchup of Strength on Strength and Weakness on Weakness
The 2016 European Championship has begun, and already there have been surprises. If the four games that have been played at the post time of this article are any indication, this could be one of the least predictable—and most fun—Euros we've seen in years.
On Monday, the Italian national team will finally be released from the starting gate.
It's been a trend in recent Euros for the Azzurri to face their toughest tests of the group first. In 2008, the Netherlands shelled Italy in a 3-0 win, and four years ago the Italians earned a 1-1 draw with Spain. This time around, they will open things up with Belgium.
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The Red Devils are second in the world, according to the latest FIFA World Rankings, behind Argentina. That makes them, at least by that count, the best team in Europe. They've gone on a rocket ascent since 2012, when a golden generation of players like Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne started them on a swift upward trajectory.
They secured easy qualification to the 2014 FIFA World Cup, their first since Japan/Korea in 2002. They breezed through their group in Brazil and then beat the United States in extra time in the round of 16 before falling to eventual runners-up Argentina in the quarterfinal.
They took that momentum into qualifying for Euro 2016. They hadn't qualified for this competition since they were co-hosts at Euro 2000, but this time handily made it through with a five-point gap between themselves and the playoff round. Their only hiccup was a surprise 1-0 loss to Wales, who finished only two points behind them in the group standings.
With their talented young core and supercharged attack, the Belgians were expected to be one of the big favorites in France. But recent fixtures have shown some flaws in Marc Wilmots' team, and now their status isn't as sure.
There are several aspects of this game that are intriguing. Obviously there is the prestige factor. Italy have come into this tournament as giants on the decline, whereas the Belgians are a historically middle-of-the-road footballing nation that are looking to ascend to the level of the world's elite.
But the most intriguing part of this matchup will play out on the field. Both of these teams have major strengths and weaknesses. Usually, a match is decided when one team can bring its strengths to bear against their opponent's weaknesses, but in this match, both teams will be pitting their strongest units against one another—and also their weakest units.
Belgium's strength is obviously their attack. A look at the attackers they're bringing to France reads as a who's who of established top talents and up-and-coming youngsters: Lukaku, De Bruyne, Hazard, Yannick Carrasco, Divock Origi, Dries Mertens, Christian Benteke and Michy Batshuayi can all strike fear into the hearts of defenders.
None is older than 29, and only the 22-year-old Carrasco, who only has four caps, has failed to score an international goal. Of course, given the fact that he just scored an equalizing goal in the UEFA Champions League final, it's obvious that he's not the kind of forward who wilts in high-pressure situations.
The Belgians scored 24 goals in 10 qualifying games over the last two years, a total matched by only four other teams and bested by just one.
It's easily one of the most formidable front lines in the tournament, one that would be of serious concern to most teams.
But the Azzurri aren't most teams. There may not be many certainties on the Italian roster, but the defense is absolutely one of them.
Manager Antonio Conte's back line is the exact same unit that helped him turn Juventus back into the powerhouse it was before it was gutted by the Calciopoli scandal in 2006. The defensive trio of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini—Juve's own version of the "BBC"—has been one of the dominant units in Europe over the last five years.
In the five years since Conte began his Juve tenure, the Bianconeri have only allowed an average of 22.2 goals per season in league play. This year, they allowed only three in the group stage of the Champions League, and they very nearly keyed an upset win over Bayern Munich in the round of 16.
This is one of, if not the best defensive unit in the tournament, and it's backed up by Gianluigi Buffon. The 38-year-old may go down as the greatest goalkeeper to ever play the game, and even at his age is one of the three or four best 'keepers in the game. His ability to marshal a defense greatly augments the talent of the men in front of him—which is already considerable.
Their technical prowess will be augmented by the fact that the back three knows many of the forwards they'll be facing. They faced De Bruyne twice in the Champions League group stage this past season, and Carrasco in last year's quarterfinals against Monaco. Of course, they're intimately familiar with Mertens, who plies his trade at Napoli.
This is one of the most intriguing unit matchups that we could see for the entire tournament. It will require a moment of magic—or a big mistake—for Belgium to unlock the Italians, and it's entirely likely that these two elite lines cancel each other out. That's what makes the duel on the other side of the field all that much more decisive.
If Belgium's attack vs. Italy's defense is a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object, the reverse is more like a feather meeting a pillow.
The Italians are coming into this tournament with one of the weakest striking units in their history. Simone Zaza, Graziano Pelle, Ciro Immobile, Eder and Lorenzo Insigne have combined for only 11 international goals between them. The leading scorer in that group, Pelle, is third on the team in career international scoring, behind midfielder Daniele De Rossi and, incredibly, Chiellini.
The situation up front is so uncertain that Conte ended up issuing the No. 10 shirt to Thiago Motta, a decision that has generated a lot of controversy back home. The lack of creativity up front, combined with an injury-depleted midfield, means that scoring chances may be few and far between for the Azzurri.
At least, they are under normal circumstances. Against the Belgians, they may be able to find a few more holes.
The defense is easily the weakest part of the squad Wilmots has brought to France. The unit is without captain and anchor Vincent Kompany, who was ruled out of the tournament when he was injured for the umpteenth time in his career during Manchester City's Champions League semifinal tilt with Real Madrid.
His absence has been keenly felt, but Belgium's defensive performances have been shaky for a while. The Red Devils haven't registered a clean sheet since September 6, when they shut out Cyprus 1-0 in qualifying. They've had to come from behind in each of their last five games, including pre-tournament friendlies against Finland and Norway.
Also included in that list was November's friendly against Italy. The final score was 3-1 to Belgium, but the score made Belgium look a lot better than they were. Antonio Candreva scored three minutes in and very nearly doubled the lead before Belgium managed an equalizer in the 13th. But the Italians kept on coming, hitting the bar through Eder and narrowly missing through Stephan El Shaarawy.
Belgium's overwhelming quality ended up winning the day with two late goals, but it was clear that Conte had out-coached Wilmots that day. If he can do it again, Italy could steal the result of this game.
If reports are true, Conte is looking to take advantage of Belgium's shakiness in the back. While he has been secretive about his plans, Football Italia has cited multiple reports that he will be putting out the most attack-minded lineup at his disposal, with Candreva and El Shaarawy on the wings of his 3-5-2. The same outlet has relayed other reports that Wilmots may sacrifice an attacker to install Marouane Fellaini in midfield for added defensive support.
Monday's game is one of the most intriguing battles on paper and could turn into one of the best contests of the tournament. In a match that will pit the strongest and weakest aspects of both teams against each other, the result will come down to which team can minimize their individual mistakes, which strength is stronger and which weakness is weaker.
