Belmont Stakes 2016 Post Positions: Triple Crown Odds and Predictions for Field
The 2016 Belmont Stakes represents the culmination of hard work for a group of 13 horses, their trainers and owners who have sought immortality.
This year's final Triple Crown race doesn't have the allure of a horse going for history like American Pharoah made last year, but there is a lot of pride and bragging rights on the line in Elmont, New York, on Saturday.
In the final hours before the horses step up to their posts for the 1 1/2-mile trek, here are the final odds and predictions for the Belmont Stakes.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
| 1 | Governor Malibu | 14-1 |
| 2 | Destin | 9-1 |
| 3 | Cherry Wine | 8-1 |
| 4 | Suddenbreakingnews | 7-1 |
| 5 | Stradivari | 7-1 |
| 6 | Gettysburg | 40-1 |
| 7 | Seeking The Soul | 40-1 |
| 8 | Forever d'Oro | 40-1 |
| 9 | Trojan Nation | 40-1 |
| 10 | Lani | 16-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | 5-4 |
| 12 | Brody's Cause | 14-1 |
| 13 | Creator | 16-1 |
Prediction
All eyes are on Exaggerator after he finished second at the Kentucky Derby and responded with a win at the Preakness Stakes.
Things have set up favorably for Exaggerator and jockey Kent Desormeaux on Saturday. Per Weather.com, the forecast in Elmont calls for a chance of thunderstorms beginning at around 5 p.m.
Post time for the Belmont is 6:32 p.m. ET, giving the track plenty of time to be doused in rain. Exaggerator loves to run on a sloppy track, winning the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness in rain-soaked conditions.
If recent history is any indication, per ESPN.com's Chris Fallica, it helps that Exaggerator is the betting favorite on Saturday:
"[...] Exaggerator has only been out of the money twice in his career -- when he was fifth in his debut and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a bad trip. Needless to say, he will be a great horse to key in all three spots in the trifecta. That's been the way the recent Triple Crown races have gone -- seven of the last eight have been won by either the first or second choice -- but if the right horses come in underneath, you can turn 9-5 into something better.
"
While everything sets up well for Exaggerator to win his second-straight race, there are elements that must be taken into consideration for why he won't finish at the top.
This is Exaggerator's third race in five weeks. The Belmont Stakes is the longest race of the Triple Crown at 12 furlongs, requiring enough speed to be in the mix early and stamina to make that necessary final push.
Among the top contenders best suited to upend Exaggerator's quest, Destin has the pedigree and talent to make it happen.
Destin's trainer Todd Pletcher has three career wins in Triple Crown races, including two at the Belmont Stakes (2007 and 2013). The horse is being ridden by Javier Castellano, who has won the Eclipse Award for outstanding jockey each of the last three years.
Interestingly, as revered as Castellano is, he's never won the Belmont Stakes in his career. This is one of his best chances with a horse who is being underrated because of a poor sixth-place finish at the Kentucky Derby in his first race since March 12.
Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post noted that Destin has the best combination of physical prowess and bloodline to be a major threat at the Belmont Stakes:
"His 1.43 dosage index that suggests he is bred more for stamina than speed and his sire’s progeny has the highest average winning distance (8.2 furlongs) among the field. Destin can also be considered a dual threat. He likes to sit off the pace with enough tactical speed to gain ground on the turn and down the stretch. Plus, his pace figure at the second call in the Kentucky Derby was a career high, and since it didn’t come at the expense of his speed (97 Bris speed figure in the Derby equaled his winning effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby)...
"
The dosage index is defined as the ratio of speed to stamina in the breeding, with Greenberg noting that Belmont winners haven't often had a mark over three, with the exception of American Pharoah last year.
If the track remains dry when the Belmont Stakes goes to post, Destin is the best horse in the field to stop Exaggerator.
Since it appears, however, that weather is going to play at least some role in the race, Exaggerator has to get the edge because of his track record in those conditions.
Win: Exaggerator Place: Destin Show: Creator
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
