Belmont Stakes 2016 Post Positions: Final Projections, Odds, Payout, Post Info
Fresh off a win at the Preakness Stakes, Exaggerator will start the 2016 Belmont Stakes as the clear favourite after a solid draw in Post 11, handing the colt plenty of space to get in front.
According to Odds Shark, Exaggerator has the best odds entering the race by some distance, with Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist not running. Lani is the only other horse in the race set to complete the Triple Crown.
Some of Exaggerator's opponents will be much fresher at Belmont, however, which could be a decisive factor given the course's length. Here's a look at the full post info, odds and some final projections:
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| 1 | Governor Malibu | Joel Rosario | 14-1 | |
| 2 | Destin | Javier Castellano | 9-1 | Third |
| 3 | Cherry Wine | Corey Lanerie | 8-1 | |
| 4 | Suddenbreakingnews | Mike Smith | 7-1 | Second |
| 5 | Stradivari | John Velazquez | 7-1 | Fourth |
| 6 | Gettysburg | Paco Lopez | 40-1 | |
| 7 | Seeking The Soul | Florent Geroux | 40-1 | |
| 8 | Forever d'Oro | Jose Ortiz | 40-1 | |
| 9 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | 40-1 | |
| 10 | Lani | Yutaka Take | 16-1 | |
| 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | 5-4 | First |
| 12 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | 14-1 | |
| 13 | Creator | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 16-1 |
The full payout info:
| Total Purse | $1,500,000 |
| 1st | $800,000 |
| 2nd | $280,000 |
| 3rd | $150,000 |
| 4th | $100,000 |
| 5th | $60,000 |
| 6th | $45,000 |
| 7th | $35,000 |
| 8th | $30,000 |
Exaggerator will hope to become just the second odds-on favourite to win the Belmont Stakes since 2005, with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah ending the streak last year.
There's a reason the favourites often falter at Belmont―the longer track makes for a unique challenge, and most of the top horses have usually run the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes as well, affecting their endurance.
Most of the contenders for this year's Belmont Stakes ran well at Pimlico but sat out the Derby. Cherry Wine rallied late to deny Nyquist second place in Baltimore, and the colt's fine burst of late speed should serve him well over the longer distance.
Per Mike Welsh of Daily Racing Form, he has looked well in preparation for the race:
Cherry Wine will break from Post 3, relatively close to the rail, and his tendency to start slow and make up ground in the second half of the race means he's in real danger of getting caught behind the pack battling for position.
Stradivari will start from Post 5, and after finishing fourth in his stakes debut at Pimlico, fans have high expectations for the colt. Like Cherry Wine, Stradivari appears one of the in form-horses ahead of the race, and punters are banking on him continuing his growth.
He never encountered slop until the Preakness and seems to improve every single time we see him. Raw speed isn't an issue, although Stradivari tends to do the exact opposite of Cherry Wine: start too fast. He's a candidate to be the early pace-setter, which wouldn't be smart against strong finishers like Cherry Wine and Exaggerator.
Suddenbreakingnews didn't run at Pimlico after finishing fifth at the Derby, and after placing just twice outside of the top three in his racing career, fans are expecting big things.
His owners were in for a bit of a shock recently, per Barbara Livingston of Daily Racing Form:
Destin also appears to be a popular pick, and Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post likes his odds, given his advantage in stamina:
"His 1.43 dosage index that suggests he is bred more for stamina than speed and his sire’s progeny has the highest average winning distance (8.2 furlongs) among the field. Destin can also be considered a dual threat. He likes to sit off the pace with enough tactical speed to gain ground on the turn and down the stretch. Plus, his pace figure at the second call in the Kentucky Derby was a career high, and since it didn’t come at the expense of his speed (97 Bris speed figure in the Derby equaled his winning effort in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby), it’s a good sign he is game this Saturday when he tries to stretch out to 10 furlongs.
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But all eyes will still be on Exaggerator, and rightly so. His second-placed finish at the Derby was impressive, and Exaggerator was clearly catching up to Nyquist by the time the latter crossed the finish line. He also looked very comfortably in the slop at Pimlico, and similar conditions are a possibility for Belmont.
Per Jockey Kent Desormeaux, the horse feels every bit as good as it did ahead of the Preakness (via Marcus Hersh of Daily Racing Form):
It's difficult to argue with winning, and the opponents he'll face on Saturday all finished well behind him at the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or both.
Exaggerator is not a smart bet for punters looking to score big―and there are some strong upset candidates out there, including Destin and Suddenbreakingnews―but there are few reasons to believe he won't race to another win at Belmont.
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