Belmont Stakes 2016: Horses and Jockeys with Best Chance at Belmont Race
Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator will enter the 2016 Belmont Stakes as the clear favourite to take the third leg of the Triple Crown, since Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist is not travelling to New York for Saturday's race.
The longer course in Belmont should favour Exaggerator, who had started gaining on Nyquist but ran out of track in Kentucky before comfortably taking the win in Baltimore. The colt will go up against a well-rested field, however, and endurance will be a key factor.
Here's a look at the top contenders for this year's Belmont Stakes.
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Exaggerator (Jockey: Kent Desormaux)
The obvious choice is the winning horse at Pimlico, as Exaggerator is expected to sport the top odds Saturday morning.
Jockey Kent Desormaux is the brother of Exaggerator's trainer, Keith Desormaux, but Kent's path to Belmont has been anything but straight. He recently opened up to Christian Red of the New York Daily News, saying his win at the Preakness forced him to confront a serious issue he struggled with―alcohol:
"Preakness weekend I celebrated so hard I don’t even remember Sunday night. That’s when I decided, ‘This is too much.’ That was in Baltimore. I made a phone call. I said, ‘I gotta stop.’ Not slow down. I tried that. I’ve been trying that for 15 years.
[…] It’s like a whole new me. I feel like an idiot for the last 35 years. What have I been thinking? I feel like a new person, I really do. I thought I always had it under control.
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Exactly how the experience will impact Desormaux is unclear, although one has to assume it can only have a positive effect. More than the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes requires perfect tactics to deal with the longer track. Jockeys have to be on point.
As far as raw pace goes, Exaggerator has no match in the field, and following a favourable draw (Post 11), there's every reason to believe the colt will run a simple race and turn it on in the final furlongs for an easy win.
But top horses routinely fall short at Belmont, most likely because of a combination of the longer track and the strain of running in all three Triple Crown races.
Punters should keep a close eye on the weather forecast. Exaggerator loves mud, and if the Belmont course is as sloppy as Pimlico was for the Preakness, he would become an even safer bet.
Stradivari (Jockey: John Velazquez)
Every report on rising star Stradivari coming out of Belmont all week has said the same thing: The colt appears to be in excellent form. Mike Welsch of Daily Racing Form added to the hype on Thursday:
Stradivari isn't the only horse who has made an impression all week long―Lani has become a dangerous outsider thanks to several excellent workouts―but in the case of Stradivari, there are more reasons to be optimistic.
John Velazquez is an experienced jockey who has won at Belmont before and knows exactly how to plan his race on a longer course. Add to that Stradivari's relative inexperience at Pimlico―per David Grening of Daily Racing Form (via ESPN.com), he got hit with slop for the first time during the Preakness―and we could be looking at a horse who puts it all together at Belmont.
Stradivari does tend to start fast, and there's a chance he'll end up as the pacesetter. But if Velazquez can keep the colt in check early, his strong form should lead to a top-four finish at the very least.
Cherry Wine (Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie)
Cherry Wine was handed a top draw, starting from Post 3, and has been steadily improving in recent months, culminating with a second-place finish at the Preakness.
Like Exaggerator, the colt loves to run in the slop, which is a real possibility for Saturday, and his late burst of speed that saw him overtake Nyquist at Pimlico should bode well for Belmont's longer track.
He does tend to start slow, however, and while most expect the pace for the opening half-mile of the Belmont Stakes to be slower than it was for the Preakness, there are questions regarding Cherry Wine's ability as a deep closer if he's forced to keep up with the likes of Exaggerator and Lani early.
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