Preakness Picks 2016: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 141st Race
Nyquist hopes to continue a march into the history books that will see him end up on the page next to American Pharoah as the second of back-to-back Triple Crown winners.
Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby in grand style on the first Saturday in May, and he will try to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown Saturday evening at the Preakness Stakes.
Nyquist is the 3-5 favorite, according to Preakness.com.
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The site of the 1 3/16-mile event is Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, and it should be a much different type of battle for Nyquist and the 10 horses who will challenge him.
The sharp turns at Pimlico often favors horses who run at or near the front of the pack. The angle of the turns makes it tougher for come-from-behind horses like Exaggerator (3-1) to launch into their late runs and rally to victory.
| 1 | Cherry Wine | Dale Romans | Corey Lanerie | 20-1 | 5th |
| 2 | Uncle Lino | Gary Sherlock | Fernando Perez | 20-1 | 9th |
| 3 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 3-5 | 2nd |
| 4 | Awesome Speed | Alan Goldberg | Jevian Toledo | 30-1 | 10th |
| 5 | Exaggerator | Keith Desormeaux | Kent Desormeaux | 3-1 | 1st |
| 6 | Lani | Mikio Matsunaga | Yutaka Take | 30-1 | 11th |
| 7 | Collected | Bob Baffert | Javier Castellano | 10-1 | 4th |
| 8 | Laoban | Eric Guillot | Florent Geroux | 30-1 | 6th |
| 9 | Abiding Star | Ned Allard | J.D. Acosta | 30-1 | 8th |
| 10 | Fellowship | Mark Casse | Jose Lezcano | 30-1 | 7th |
| 11 | Stradivari | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 8-1 | 3rd |
Tougher, but not impossible. Powerful runners have made come-from-behind victories possible at Pimilico, and Exaggerator has an excellent chance to win the race. He was charging at Nyquist in the final 200 yards of the Derby, and he was competing in a field of 20. This field in this race is obviously much smaller.
Another factor that is likely to help Exaggerator is that rain is forecast for the Baltimore area, according to the Weather Channel. Exaggerator ran a sensational race in the Santa Anita Derby, and that event was conducted on an off-track. Exaggerator won the race and did not seem to be bothered by the rain at all. If anything, he enjoyed it.
Nyquist has won all eight of his previous races, but none of them have been in the rain on an off-track. He is untested in that area.
It would not be accurate to say that he can't run in the rain, but he has not proved that he can run as well on a sloppy or muddy track as he can on a beautiful day.
Stradivari (10-1) did not run in the Kentucky Derby, but this lightly raced colt is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez. Stradivari has only been to the post three times, but he has won twice and both were runaways.
His lack of experience makes him a real question mark. If he is truly a great horse, he should be able to run with Nyquist and Exaggerator, but if he is in over his head, it will not work out as well for him.
Bob Baffert's Collected (8-1) could also work his way into contention in the Preakness. Collected will be ridden by Javier Castellano, and it's likely that he will be hustled to the front at the start of the race.
If Collected can get off to a decent lead and then slow down in the middle part of the race, he will have a chance to carry a lead deep into the stretch.
That could put him in a position to steal a victory, or at least hit the board in the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
Prediction
All eyes will be on Nyquist, and many fans are expecting him to get the best of the field and collect the second jewel of the Triple Crown in much the same style that he did in the Kentucky Derby.
In that race, Nyquist stalked the pace until he reached the top of the stretch and then turned it on. Trainer Doug O'Neill will most likely want to stick with the same strategy, but much will depend on the pace. If several horses gun for the lead and the pace is fast, Nyquist may lay back a bit more than usual so he doesn't burn out.
That's exactly what Exaggerator hopes will happen. He is a strong stretch runner, and the faster the pace, the more tired runners he will pass once he makes his move.
Collected is a fast horse who can get to the lead. He does not want a lot of competition at the front, but he is not likely to get his wish.
Stradivari may be good enough to get a piece of the board as he proves that he belongs with these excellent three-year-olds.
1. Exaggerator
2. Nyquist
3. Stradivari
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