Preakness 2016: Updated Predictions, Betting Lines and Post Time

When the Preakness field takes their posts at 6:45 p.m. ET on Saturday evening at Pimlico, there will be one question and one question only on people's minds: Can Nyquist take one step closer to the second Triple Crown in the past two years?

All other storylines are secondary to that one. Below, let's take a look at the field, betting lines and analyze whether Nyquist has what it takes to win the Preakness. 

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
1	Cherry Wine	Dale Romans	Robby Albarado	20-1
2	Uncle Lino	Gary Sherlock	Fernando Perez	20-1
3	Nyquist	Doug O'Neill	Mario Gutierrez	3-5
4	Awesome Speed	Alan Goldberg	Jevian Toledo	30-1
5	Exaggerator	Keith Desormeaux	Kent Desormeaux	3-1
6	Lani	Mikio Matsunaga	Yutaka Take	30-1
7	Collected	Bob Baffert	Javier Castellano	10-1
8	Laoban	Eric Guillot	Ricardo Santana Jr.	30-1
9	Abiding Star	Ned Allard	J.D. Acosta	30-1
10	Fellowship	Mark Casse	Jose Lezcano	30-1
11	Stradivari	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	8-1

Predictions

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Nyquist will win. Thanks for reading, folks, and enjoy the race!

Okay, okay, it's easy enough to say that Nyquist will win, but why will he make it nine races in a row with a victory?

Well, his perfect record is the first indication that he should be the favorite. So is the excellent performance he put together at the Kentucky Derby, or the fact that he's beaten his top competitor, Exaggerator, four times already in his career. 

Nyquist's run at the Derby was particularly impressive, as Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post wrote:

"

According to TimeformUS pace figures, a metric that combines a horse’s final-time figure, pace figures, and running style into one number, Nyquist recorded a 152 for the half-mile, which was “comfortably the fastest opening half mile by a Derby winner” since they started tracking the data in 2004. Nyquist earned a 123 TimeformUS speed figure for the entire race, only a few ticks slower than American Pharoah (127).

"

Given his tactical running style, the Preakness suits him well, since he has enough early speed to stay with the sprinters, generally makes his big push in the middle of the race and has the endurance to hold off the competition down the stretch.

He'll be able to push a bit more in the middle of the race than he did at Kentucky, given the shorter Pimlico track, and the late pushers like Exaggerator will have less track to catch him.

His draw was favorable as well, and he'll avoid being posted next to Lani, an unpredictable horse who has the potential to unsettle the horses lined up next to him. Like Exaggerator, for example.

Even the forecast potentially favors Nyquist. With a 70 percent chance of rain, per Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times, the Preakness could end up being a wet, muddy track. Those conditions didn't bother Nyquist at the Florida Derby on April 2.

Of course, Exaggerator has two wins on muddy tracks, too. But Nyquist just seems to have an answer for every conceivable advantage Exaggerator might possess.

Even the other trainers in the race are singing Nyquist's praises.

"He’s really fast," Collected trainer Bob Baffert acknowledged, per Jonathan Lintner of the Louisville Courier-Journal (via USA Today). "He stays out of trouble. He has a winning attitude. Horses like that, they’re tough to—it’s like, ‘Pass me to win.’ I’ve always thought he reminded me of Smarty Jones."

That's high praise. Smarty Jones, of course, was oh so close to winning the Triple Crown himself back in 2004, finishing second in the Belmont Stakes after winning the Derby and the Preakness. Nyquist seems to be on pace to at least be in contention for the Triple Crown at Belmont.

So, who will finish second and third?

Exaggerator seems like the clear second choice in this race and the most likely horse to win if Nyquist comes up short. The muddy track is a definite advantage for Exaggerator, at least over the rest of the field not named Nyquist. Exaggerator should finish second.

After that, it's a tough call. Collected seems like a good pick, if only because the horse has been very good in its last two races (both wins) and has a much better draw than Stradivari, who could get lost on the outside. So look for Collected to finish third, though likely well off the pace set by Nyquist and Exaggerator.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.