Preakness Odds 2016: Updated Lines and Favorites After Post-Positions Draw
The buildup for this year's Preakness Stakes kicked into gear on Wednesday with the revealing of the post positions.
Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist will lead the field of 11 horses at Baltimore's Pimlico Race Course as he looks to become the third straight horse to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Exaggerator, who was the runner-up at Churchill Downs, is also back on the track two weeks after coming up just short of joining the ranks of the immortals.
Here's how the horses will line up at the 2016 Preakness Stakes on Saturday:
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| 1 | Cherry Wine | Dale Romans | Corey Lanerie | 20-1 |
| 2 | Uncle Lino | Gary Sherlock | Fernando Perez | 20-1 |
| 3 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 3-5 |
| 4 | Awesome Speed | Alan Goldberg | Jevian Toledo | 30-1 |
| 5 | Exaggerator | Keith Desormeaux | Kent Desormeaux | 3-1 |
| 6 | Lani | Mikio Matsunaga | Yutaka Take | 30-1 |
| 7 | Collected | Bob Baffert | Javier Castellano | 10-1 |
| 8 | Laoban | Eric Guillot | Florent Geroux | 30-1 |
| 9 | Abiding Star | Ned Allar | J.D. Acosta | 30-1 |
| 10 | Fellowship | Mark Casse | Jose Lezcano | 30-1 |
| 11 | Stradivari | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 8-1 |
The Favorite: Nyquist
At this point in his career, Nyquist is going to be the favorite until another horse proves it can beat him. The Kentucky Derby winner has never lost in eight career races, defeating talented rivals such as Exaggerator and Mohaymen in the process.
Making the Doug O'Neill-trained colt a more encouraging favorite heading into the Preakness Stakes is the way he closed at the Kentucky Derby; he waited until the final turn before making his move into the lead and getting stronger over the last 300 yards:
Rival trainer Bob Baffert, who is working with Collected at the Preakness, had nothing but positive things to say about Nyquist, per Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal: “He’s really fast. He stays out of trouble. He has a winning attitude. Horses like that, they’re tough to—it’s like, ‘Pass me to win.’ I’ve always thought he reminded me of Smarty Jones.”
A key storyline for this year's Preakness Stakes is weather, as the forecast in Baltimore on Weather.com calls for rain virtually all day.
However, O'Neill said earlier this week, per Jeremy Balan of Blood-Horse.com, that his horse will "handle the mud" and "he'll be fine."
It's hard to dispute O'Neill on this one because Nyquist became a star with his win at the rain-soaked Florida Derby that led to his becoming the favorite at the Kentucky Derby. This is Nyquist's race to lose, and no weather conditions will detract from that on Saturday.
Overrated: Exaggerator
The world got a look at Exaggerator at the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second to Nyquist. Since he's the best-known horse not named Nyquist, oddsmakers have decided to give him the second-best odds at the Preakness Stakes.
Yet a quick look at Exaggerator's career resume shows an inconsistent horse. He does have four career victories, including the prestigious Santa Anita Derby, but his resume goes 10 races deep. That leaves six events in which he's failed to come out on top.
In fairness to Exaggerator, he hasn't been bad in all of those other races. His worst career finish was fifth place in his first race 11 months ago, and there are three runner-up finishes to go along with his four wins.
Exaggerator's trainer, Keith Desormeaux, is optimistic about his horse's chances this weekend, telling reporters recovery from the Kentucky Derby will be critical on Saturday, per Jonas Shaffer of the Baltimore Sun:
"Obviously, numbers-wise, horse-for-horse-wise, it's tough to think we can beat him, right? But … the strongest attribute that Exaggerator has is his ability to recover, and as you know, this Preakness is run back in two weeks. That's not normal in this day and age, to run a horse back that quickly.
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Yet even with that optimism brimming from Exaggerator's camp, Candice Hare of Fox Sports 1340 in New Mexico went back to the heart of the matter in this equation:
There are certain rivalries in sports that are one-sided. Think back to how much fun the New York Yankees used to have the Boston Red Sox's expense, as an example. Eventually the Red Sox did get their revenge, but it took 86 years.
The fact Nyquist has defeated Exaggerator on multiple occasions in the last year says the result isn't going to be any different on a bad track at Pimlico.
Prediction: Nyquist
I wanted to find another horse to pick, if for no other reason than to be different. Stradivari immediately drew my eye by virtue of winning his last two races by more than 25 combined lengths.
But as Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse.com noted, there's just as much mystery around Stradivari as there is racing footage:
"So, just who is Stradivari and why would anyone think he has a shot to upset five-time grade I winner Nyquist when he has never even competed in a stakes race and has made only three lifetime starts? And he hasn’t even won all of them, finishing fourth, beaten 8 1/2 lengths, in his career debut last November
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There lies the always intriguing unknown factor that hovers over Stradivari and could very well get him bet down to third or fourth choice in the Preakness. The reason for the intrigue can be found in Stradivari’s last two races, which he won by 11 1/4 lengths and 14 1/2 lengths, respectively.
Three career races don't preclude Stradivari from winning the Preakness Stakes. He's never had a turnaround this quick, with his last race coming on April 17, putting his stamina to the test in ways it hasn't been so far.
Another issue facing Stradivari is no horse has won the Preakness outside the first nine post positions since Rachel Alexandra in 2009 (No. 13).
There's no denying Stradivari's raw talent, but he's like the prospect who may one day become a superstar but needs a lot of development before all the skills finally fall into place.
Collected also jumped out as an overlooked contender, especially considering the team around him. Baffert is one of horse racing's greatest trainers ever, with the Preakness being his most successful Triple Crown race with six career victories.
After winning the Preakness last year with American Pharoah, Baffert is taking a different approach with Collected this time around, as he told Mike Farrell of the Associated Press: "He is fast, but there are a lot of fast horses in there. We feel like he deserves a chance. We never thought about the Derby with him, but he's the kind of horse that brings it every time."
The only race Collected has lost this year at the Southwest Stakes in February was the result of a poor break out of the gate. He still rebounded to finish fourth, which is an impressive feat given how bad his start was.
Yet in terms of skill, pedigree and resume on the track, no horse in the race can match Nyquist. Bad weather can alter the dynamics of any race, but he's already pushed through a muddy track in Florida last month, giving him an edge.
It's boring and predictable to say Nyquist will win the Preakness, but sometimes there's a reason the favorite is in that position.
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