The Top 10 Storylines to Follow at the 2016 French Open
If the prelude to the 2016 French Open is any indication, we’re due for a wild ride in Paris.
Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have each found success on European clay, positioning themselves as the men to beat at Roland Garros.
With their three-way battle intensifying, they’ve separated from the rest of the pack, leaving an injury-plagued Roger Federer and slumping Stan Wawrinka in the dust.
Meanwhile, chaos reigned supreme on the women's side during April and May. As the top-ranked players saw their share of ups and downs, Serena Williams showcased her full powers with a title in Rome. She picked exactly the right time to start peaking. Best of luck to anyone in her way moving forward.
But enough with recaps—it's time to preview the season's second Grand Slam. Here are the storylines that will define the tournament.
Maria Sharapova's Absence Creates Opportunity
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Maria Sharapova's absence looms large over the 2016 French Open.
The two-time champion (2012, 2014) is suspended for failing a doping test at the Australian Open. While she awaits a formal hearing from the International Tennis Federation about her ban, Sharapova sits on the sidelines with the action about to unfold in Paris.
A familiar face on championship Saturday the last few years, Sharapova's inability to participate creates a window of opportunity in the bottom half of the draw.
Will we see another veteran reach an unlikely final? Or could a rising talent like Madison Keys steal the show? Either way, not having Sharapova around should ironically introduce more chaos.
Is Dominic Thiem Capable of Making a Deep Run?
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When trying to identify dark-horse contenders on the men's side, one name stands out: Dominic Thiem.
The 22-year-old Austrian is in the midst of a breakout season, compiling a 32-10 record with titles in Buenos Aires and Acapulco. He's beaten Top 10 opponents in the form of Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and Roger Federer. Any of those names ring a bell?
This guy is the real deal, and clay is the surface where his game does the most damage.
He's won five titles on the dirt since last May. Sure, they've not come at premier events, but don't hold that against him. His stock is very much on the rise.
Ranked No. 15, Thiem will be a dangerous floater in the draw. Capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone from the baseline and a gifted defender, he can cause plenty of headaches for players seeded above him. He's an opponent no one wants to face early on.
Thiem's never reached the quarterfinal of a major in his young career. That fact may soon be a thing of the past after this upcoming French Open.
Angelique Kerber Deals with New Expectations
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Becoming a Grand Slam champion changes everything.
Ask Angelique Kerber, 28, who had never reached a major final before this year's Australian Open. A near mainstay in the Top 10 for so long, her career found new meaning after she upset heavily favored Serena Williams for the title Down Under.
Tired of simply being a face in the crowd, Kerber etched her name in history with that win. But the honeymoon is over. Now comes the challenge of following up her remarkable achievement.
Is Kerber just another one-Slam wonder on the women's side? Only time will tell, although Paris seems an unlikely place for her to prove otherwise. The German doesn't have the best relationship with the French Open, her best result a quarterfinal appearance in 2012.
Coming into Roland Garros, Kerber's on a two-match losing streak. That trend is troubling, though it's too early to count her out, not with so much uncertainty surrounding her peers.
Will she catch lightning in a bottle twice?
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Can Stan Wawrinka Channel Last Year's Magic?
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The 2015 French Open final looked decidedly overmatched in Novak Djokovic's favor on paper. Stan Wawrinka and his memorable plaid shorts didn't receive the memo.
In a career-defining performance, he played the part of David to Djokovic's Goliath, his blistering groundstrokes the weapon needed to slay the giant and take home his second Grand Slam title. A helpless Djokovic is something rarely witnessed, but he had no way to combat Wawrinka's baseline artillery.
Bidding Paris adieu after his magical ride, Wawrinka has yet to rediscover that form.
Entering Roland Garros this year, the fourth-ranked Swiss' game doesn't inspire much hope that he'll defend his crown. Drubbed by Rafael Nadal in the Monte Carlo quarterfinals, Wawrinka's lull reached a crescendo with early exits from Madrid and Rome.
It's one thing to lose to Nadal on dirt, no shame there. What's more concerning is the manner in which he's played since winning Dubai in February. Since then, Wawrinka's not put together a win streak longer than two matches. Sloppy and inconsistent, he looks unsure of himself these days, even on clay.
Lacking quality preparation, Wawrinka entered this week's tournament in Geneva, desperate to find his rhythm. If it doesn't click for him there, the consequences in Paris could be dire.
Andy Murray's Clay Wizardry
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Clay courts never used to bring a ton of joy for Andy Murray. Not until this past year.
Proving you can teach an old dog new tricks, Murray's turned himself into a force on the surface. In the last two seasons, his record on the dirt is a stout 29-3. Titles include Madrid and Munich in 2015, as well as the recent Italian Open. Should we start referring to him as the "Prince of Clay?"
"Moving better has sort of changed my mentality when I go on the court a lot," Murray said, per ATPWorldTour.com. "I don't feel like I'm off-balance anymore, and I feel like I can chase most balls down. And it's an easy surface for me to move on now."
His 180-degree turnaround on the terre battue is a sight to behold. Murray nearly made the French Open final last June, falling to Novak Djokovic in an epic five-set semifinal.
Prior to 2015, Murray's clay-court results were inconsistent. Flipping the script, he's now a regular presence late in these events. A semifinalist in Monte Carlo and runner-up in Madrid during recent weeks, his victory over Djokovic in Rome highlights his upward trajectory.
Halting Djokovic's hold over him is a huge psychological lift for Murray entering Roland Garros. The rivalry is alive again. And so too is the Scot's chance to take the throne.
Uncertainty in the Women's Field
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Besides Maria Sharapova, other big names like eighth-ranked Belinda Bencic (back) and Caroline Wozniacki (ankle) won't travel to Paris because of injury.
Also dealing with back problems is Victoria Azarenka, who's struggling to recover in time for the French Open. A healthy Azarenka could make a serious run at the title, but she won't get there with physical limitations.
The rest of the Top 10 is littered with players such as Agnieszka Radwanska, Garbine Muguruza and Madrid Open champion Simona Halep, each of them with inconsistent results this clay-court season. Even older veterans Angelique Kerber and Roberta Vinci can't seem to get it going.
All of these developments create a women's draw that's incredibly wide open for anyone not named Serena Williams. Who'll take advantage?
Roger Federer's Health
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Is one of Roger Federer's most remarkable streaks in jeopardy of being snapped?
The Swiss maestro hasn't missed a major since the 1999 U.S. Open, appearing in a record 65 consecutive events. Call him the Cal Ripken Jr. of majors. But there are doubts about whether he'll be able to participate at the French Open.
The culprit for this concern? A nagging back injury first suffered in Madrid. As soon as he recovered from knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus, Federer's return hit a snag with this latest physical problem.
No stranger to back issues during his career, he withdrew from Madrid before giving it a go in Rome. After cruising past teen sensation Alexander Zverev, a compromised Federer fell prey to surging Dominic Thiem in a third-round defeat.
Federer still anticipates playing in Paris, though it remains to be seen how effective he'll be. Even he conceded how gloomy the forecast looks.
"I see my chances as not great to have the most unbelievable run, but if maybe in three, four days I can practice 100 percent for the next week, then I believe that something is possible again," Federer said, per ATPWorldTour.com. "Clearly, the way I'm playing right now is never going to be enough for any good run in Paris, and then I also wouldn't play this way. I'm still confident I will be fine somehow."
Barring any setbacks, expect Federer's streak to remain active. Just don't be shocked if his stay ends earlier than usual while his ailing body recovers.
Will Rafael Nadal Reclaim His Throne?
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No one in tennis history owns a tournament like nine-time champion Rafael Nadal has at Roland Garros.
His 70-2 mark at the French Open boggles the mind. But that second loss came in ignominious fashion last year to Novak Djokovic, ending Nadal's lengthy reign in Paris.
Until recently, the idea of Nadal winning Roland Garros for a 10th time seemed a little unrealistic. Following on the heels of a trying 2015, he entered Monte Carlo with a pedestrian 12-6 record this season.
Alleviating rumors of his demise, the Spaniard stormed to his ninth title there, his first at a Masters Series event in nearly two years. And he more than earned it, fighting past Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray and Gael Monfils to claim the prize.
A week later, he'd triumph in Barcelona after stopping Kei Nishikori in the final. Two titles in two weeks; the geyser started flowing again.
Nadal's run ended with a semifinal loss to Murray in Madrid, which preceded a quarterfinal defeat at the Italian Open to Djokovic. Even with those results, especially the latter where he pushed the world No. 1 to the limit, Nadal showed how far his game has come since the beginning of the clay-court campaign.
There's a spring in his step again. More confident and hitting his forehand better than he has in some time, Nadal isn't done yet. Far from it.
His level of comfort at the French Open is the ultimate intangible. And what better birthday present could the soon-to-be 30-year-old give himself than recapturing his old territory?
Serena Williams Eyes Grand Slam History
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Not many athletes can flip the switch like Serena Williams.
Following her losses in the Australian Open and Indian Wells finals, Williams’ three-year reign in Miami came to a surprising end with a fourth-round defeat to Svetlana Kuznetsova.
Several weeks passed before we’d see the world No. 1 on the court again.
Illness forced Williams to skip the Madrid Open, marking her third withdrawal (along with Dubai and Doha) already this season. Short on match preparation with a trip to Paris looming, the Italian Open therefore took on added importance.
Williams aced that test with flying colors, outslugging compatriot Madison Keys for her first title since last August. The weight of that drought off her shoulders, she now looks ready to make history at the French Open.
In search of a 22nd major singles crown that would tie her with Steffi Graf for the most in the Open era, Williams is highly motivated to defend her throne and further shake up the record books.
With Maria Sharapova absent and other top contenders struggling, it's becoming tougher to picture anyone other than Williams winning the title.
Novak Djokovic's Bid for a First Roland Garros Title
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Without a doubt, the biggest question at the 2016 French Open is whether Novak Djokovic finally captures the title.
A win here is all that separates the Serbian star from joining the elite company of men to complete a career Grand Slam. Doing so means he would accomplish an even rarer feat: holding all four majors at the same time.
Roland Garros isn’t a monkey on his back—it’s more like King Kong. Haunted by so many close calls in Paris (including three runner-up finishes), the pressure Djokovic faces is seismic. Without a title here, his resume holds a notable asterisk.
When he conquered Rafael Nadal for the first time in seven tries during last year’s quarterfinals, Djokovic tore down a once impenetrable fortress. Only that victory didn’t guarantee him the crown, not with Stan Wawrinka delivering a finals performance for the ages.
So try again he will. Although the heavy favorite this time, the 28-year-old must regain his composure after a turbulent stay at the Italian Open. Uneven throughout the tournament, frustration boiled over for the normally serene Serb during a one-sided loss to Andy Murray in the final.
His hot temper in Rome is evidence of the stress he’s placed on himself for the upcoming fortnight. Djokovic knows there might not be a better opportunity than now to cross the French Open off his bucket list.
The clock continues to tick louder than a beating drum.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com and WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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