Making Sense of Expectations for the 2016 NFL Rookie Wide Receiver Class

Expectations can be funny. They often warp our perceptions on any number of subjects. The 2016 wide receiver draft class will likely suffer from outsize expectations despite being a very talented group. 

It's like when you haven't seen the latest critically acclaimed film. All of your friends have and keep telling you how great the movie is. As such, the anticipation and expectation for said film continues to be built up in your head. More often than not when you finally see it, you think to yourself, "It was good, but I don't know what all of the fuss was about."

Why?

The film never even had a chance. Those expectations built around it needed the piece of art to be so perfect it couldn't possibly live up to the standard set before it. 

Meanwhile, we can all kick back, watch a Sylvester Stallone popcorn flick and enjoy it, because there were no expectations for it to be good in the first place. These situations often surprise. 

This is the 2016 class in a nutshell. 

Due to the previous success of the 2014 and 2015 rookie wide receivers, the expectations set forth for this year's class might be unattainable and, quite frankly, unfair based on how effective their predecessors were. The 2014 class in particular separated itself as something special, as NFL.com's Gil Brandt previously noted: 

That doesn't mean this year's group will be a disappointment. 

To put the proper expectations in place, RotoViz's Kevin Cole placed the production of the last 10 draft classes into context from a fantasy perspective: 

"

Outside of the historic 2014 class, doesn't look like a trend of better rookie WR stats pic.twitter.com/Ck6zkJmxZL

— Kevin Cole (@Cole_Kev) May 12, 2016"

In four of the last six seasons, only one rookie finished among the league's top performers in points per reception. This is far closer to the norm than 2014's outburst of rookie excellence. 

The perception of this year being an underwhelming class stems from the fact none of the draft entrants were considered top-10 prospects. Of course, Julio Jones- or A.J. Green-caliber freaks are rare, but Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and even Kevin White also warranted top picks. Odell Beckham Jr. might not have been a top-10 selection, but he didn't slide much further when the New York Giants chose him with the 12th overall pick in 2014. 

Instead, the Cleveland Browns manipulated this year's draft knowing full well the first wide receiver wouldn't come off the board within the first 10 or 12 selections. The Browns traded down not once but twice with the intention of selecting their top-rated wide receiver prospect, Baylor's Corey Coleman, with the 15th overall pick. 

Despite being the top receiver selected, Coleman's comparisons shouldn't be to some of the aforementioned top talents. Instead, Coleman should be compared to those selected in a similar range: those who were drafted between picks 11-20. 

Over the past 10 drafts, seven wide receivers were chosen in said range. Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor all experienced different levels of success as rookies. 

In their first seasons, those seven targets averaged 51 receptions for 656 yards and four touchdowns. These shouldn't be difficult numbers for Coleman to equal or surpass. 

What kept Coleman—who won the Biletnikoff Award as college football's top receiver in 2015—from being considered an elite prospect was his size (5'11" and 194 pounds) and the fact Baylor doesn't run the full NFL route tree. 

For Cleveland, the Browns desperately needed a playmaker on offense. Coleman might not be the most polished route-runner, but he found ways to score 20 touchdowns in the first eight games last season. 

"At Baylor I could just run by the defense and not re-stack them," the first-rounder told Sporting News' Bill Bender. "But here, guys are faster and stronger and stuff, so I have to work on the small details. Technique is not going to be perfect, but the route itself, I can run any route you tell me to run. It might not be perfect, but that's why I'm here."

Coleman headlines the class as the first receiver chosen, but multiple talented targets quickly came off the board after Cleveland selected the All-American. 

Starting at No. 21, teams selected wide receivers with three consecutive picks, with Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell all coming off the board. It's difficult to deem this group underwhelming when four of them were selected in the first round. 

They're all entering different situations, though, which could affect their rookie production. 

Fuller was drafted by the Houston Texans, so unlike Coleman, he doesn't need to immediately contribute as the team's No. 1 target. Instead, he gets to play Robin to DeAndre Hopkins' Batman. 

"He can catch the ball vertically like nobody that I’ve coached in 25 years," Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said, per the Houston Texans' official site. "You throw the ball deep, he’s going to catch the football."

Fuller's ability to stretch the field makes him the ultimate complement within the Texans offense. His vertical speed will create space for all of the other targets on the field. The Notre Dame product might not put up huge numbers this fall, but his presence on the field will be invaluable. 

In the nation's capital, Doctson will mesh with one of the league's most talented skill position groups.

When quarterback Kirk Cousins drops to pass, he'll have plenty of options to choose from. DeSean Jackson remains one of the league's most dangerous receivers. Pierre Garcon is still productive and reliable. Jamison Crowder surprised as a rookie sensation out of the slot. And tight end Jordan Reed blossomed into a premier weapon last season. 

Doctson won't come in as the team's second or even third option, but he adds another dynamic to the receiver corps. The TCU product has No. 1-target size at 6'2" and 202 pounds. Neither Jackson nor Garcon is over 6'0". Plus, Doctson is highly athletic outside the numbers and in the red zone. But he still has a lot to learn when it comes to NFL-caliber route running. 

"Yeah, a lot of the routes are probably deeper, a lot of end-breaking routes, all of it really," Doctson said, per the Washington Redskins' official site. "I probably ran one double move in college and we’ve got a whole arsenal of double moves here, so just a little different in and out of breaks, getting your hips around, things like that."

As he develops, Doctson's role will likely increase. Until he's completely comfortable and on the same page as everyone else, Cousins can lean on the veterans. 

Expectations are much higher for Treadwell. Once considered the top wide receiver prospect, the Ole Miss product tumbled to the Minnesota Vikings with the 23rd overall pick primarily due to a poor 40-yard dash time (4.63 seconds). Treadwell plays faster than he times, and he's the perfect target for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. 

"He's going to be big for this team,” Bridgewater said, per the Vikings' official site. "There's a reason that we drafted him in the first round."

The 20-year-old target stands 6'2" and weighs 221 pounds. He's physical, reliable and fearless over the middle. Treadwell uses his big body to his advantage, which is something the Vikings lacked during Bridgewater's first two seasons. 

Each of these talented young targets appears to have a bright future, but history indicates they won't produce heavily as rookies and might struggle throughout their careers. 

Wide receivers selected in the latter portion of the first round have been a mixed bag over the past 10 years. Hopkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Dwayne Bowe and Santonio Holmes certainly found success. Interestingly, only one of them produced a 1,000-yard season during their initial professional campaign, and Benjamin barely eclipsed the plateau with 1,008 yards. 

But there have also been major disappointments in this group, including Craig "Buster" Davis, Jonathan Baldwin, A.J. Jenkins and Cordarrelle Patterson. 

Right now, everything looks great. Fuller, Doctson and Treadwell were all in the conversation to be the first wide receiver selected in this year's draft. Each fell a little short of that honor, but their talent certainly warranted such consideration. 

Year	Catches	Yards	TD
2015	72 (A. Cooper)	1,070 (A. Cooper)	6 (Cooper/Lockett)
2014	91 (Beckham)	1,305 (Beckham)	12 (Beckham/Evans)
2013	71 (K. Allen)	1,046 (K. Allen)	8 (K. Allen)
2012	64 (Blackmon/K. Wright)	865 (Blackmon)	7 (Hilton)
2011	65 (A.J. Green)	1,057 (A.J. Green)	8 (J. Jones)
2010	65 (M. Williams)	964 (M. Williams)	11 (M. Williams)
2009	60 (Harvin/Collie)	790 (Harvin)	7 (Collie)
2008	91 (Royal)	980 (Royal)	5 (Royal)
2007	70 (Bowe)	995 (Bowe)	5 (Bowe)
2006	70 (Colston)	1,038 (Colston)	8 (Colston)
Average:	71.9	1,011	7.7

A draft class isn't built solely on the first-round selections, though. This became an overlooked aspect of this year's group. The depth at the position extended well into the draft's third day. In total, teams selected 31 wide receivers. For comparison, the 2014 and '15 classes featured a total of 68 selections. There isn't much discrepancy among the three drafts. 

What tends to separate each class is those prospects who emerge as quality contributors outside of the opening frame. 

In 2014, Beckham stole the show, but Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, John Brown and Martavis Bryant became big-time targets early in their careers. 

After the 2015 draft, Crowder, Tyler Lockett and Stefon Diggs surprised during their first seasons. 

Multiple intriguing talents can be found littered among the recent post-first-round acquisitions. Multiple receivers landed in situations where they could produce. 

Tyler Boyd should provide a nice complement to A.J. Green with the Cincinnati Bengals. Rashard Higgins led the FBS in receiving yardage and touchdowns two seasons ago, and the Browns will need more than Coleman to improve the league's worst wide receiver corps. Daniel Braverman should get plenty of opportunities out of the slot for the Chicago Bears. Mike Thomas could quickly become one of Jared Goff's favorite targets in Los Angeles. And Demarcus Robinson is arguably more talented than the Kansas City Chiefs' third-round pick last year, Chris Conley. 

These are just a handful of examples where opportunities exist. 

Each of the previously discussed individuals will develop at their own rate. Some will make an instant impact. Others will take time before the light comes on and they are able to display legit NFL skills. And there will certainly be more than a handful who never figure it out and disappoint. The same happens with every draft class. 

It's foolish to hold this year's group to the standard set during the last two campaigns, but by tempering expectations and placing them into proper context, the current class should fall in line with previous benchmarks—and it could even surprise if we let it. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @brentsobleski.