Preakness 2016: Bold Predictions for Triple Crown's 2nd Leg
For the fourth consecutive year, the favorite has won the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and will head into the Preakness Stakes (G1) as a strong contender to take the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
As the excitement amps up for the 2016 Preakness Stakes, all eyes will be on the undefeated Nyquist as he again puts his perfect record on the line. Will the champion be upset by a new shooter? Or, will a familiar rival finally be able to turn the tables on the Derby winner?
Nyquist is the Rodney Dangerfield of the equine world. Despite his accomplishments, he still does not get any respect. He will be trying to prove the naysayers wrong again.
Read on for some bold predictions as we approach the Preakness Stakes.
The Derby Horses Will Finish 1-2-3
1 of 7
The track record of horses who competed in the Kentucky Derby and then went to the Preakness Stakes has been very strong. While the quick turnaround time of only two weeks between the two races can be difficult, many horses are able to maintain their peak form and show up in Baltimore fit and ready to run.
The 2016 edition of the Kentucky Derby did not have any major surprises. The favorite Nyquist won, and the winners of two key prep races, Exaggerator and Gun Runner, finished behind him. All three of these horses have proved that they are consistent, and there is no reason to assume one of them will throw in a clunker. The Preakness Stakes could be an outright repeat of the Run for the Roses.
Nyquist trainer Doug O'Neill is taking the familiar foes seriously. He told the Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal that Exaggerator is a horse to fear.
Stradivari Will Be the Best of the Non-Derby Horses
2 of 7
Stradivari may be short on experience, but there is no denying the colt has a wealth of talent. After a fourth-place finish in his November 2015 debut, he has had two consecutive victories and has looked brilliant in both. While he has never run against stakes competition, he has the look of a star on the rise.
He also is very reminiscent of Bernardini, the Preakness winner in 2006 who also had only three prior lifetime starts when he won the race. Though it is difficult to separate Bernardini's win that day from Barbaro's tragic breakdown, he too was a relatively unknown colt who burst onto the scene that day with an impressive victory.
Stradivari has been turning heads in training, as well. The Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch tweeted that the colt "looked sharp" after his May 13 workout.
Lani Will Improve
3 of 7
The Japanese invader, Lani, was the subject of much bewilderment prior to his start in the Kentucky Derby. While he had the credentials on paper to belong in the race after winning the UAE Derby (G1), in person it was something else entirely. This author saw him up close training at Churchill Downs prior to the Kentucky Derby, and he looked simply out of his league.
Coupling that with a pattern of bad behavior, the deck seemed stacked against him in the Run for the Roses. While he didn't exactly light the world on fire with a ninth-place finish, it was still significantly better than most people assumed he would do.
Maybe the tide is turning and he is starting to figure it all out. He will continue to improve.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Attendance Record Will Be Broken
4 of 7
In 2015, American Pharoah helped smash the attendance record at Pimlico as he attracted 131,680 fans to watch him win the second leg of the Triple Crown. Though the television ratings for the 2016 Kentucky Derby were down, the American Pharoah phenomenon may extend to Baltimore again.
Nyquist may not be as awe-inspiring as his predecessor, but American Pharoah did rejuvenate the sport and inspire both new and old fans to go out to the races. In February, Preakness ticket sales already were up 10 percent over last year. Maybe fans had such a good time cheering on American Pharoah that they were eager to go back and do it again.
With good weather in the forecast and a competitive field on the horizon, fans will be packing the historic grandstand at Pimlico on Saturday.
The Early Pace Will Be Fast
5 of 7
The new shooters in the Preakness Stakes could shake up the pace scenario. Several of the new faces—Laoban, Uncle Lino and Collected—all do their best running on or very close to the front end. With several speed types coming in fresh, the pace will be hotly contested.
Nyquist's greatest strength is how tactical and versatile he is. While he does not need to be on the lead and seems to do his best running with a stalking trip, he has shown he is able to track a hot pace and keep up with plenty left in the tank.
Exaggerator Will Be Chasing Late
6 of 7
Exaggerator has been in Nyquist's shadow for much of their careers. Every time Exaggerator has faced him, he has lost. However, he has not run a bad race behind the champion and will be once again trying to turn the tables on him.
In the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator simply was left with too much work to do to close the gap between him and Nyquist, and he ran out of time. While the Preakness Stakes is a shorter distance—1 3/16 miles—than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles, he may get a sharper pace to run into and could have the race unfold more to his favor.
He has proven that he has a strong turn of foot, and with his pedigree, being by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin, he is continuing to get better as he develops.
Nyquist Will Win the Preakness
7 of 7
A favorite winning the Preakness Stake may not be the boldest prediction, but Nyquist will remain undefeated. While he is not as flashy or as brilliant as American Pharoah was last year on his road to the Triple Crown, Nyquist has a quiet confidence about him. But make no mistake about it, he is a competitor.
Jockey Mario Gutierrez told Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times how fierce Nyquist is on the racetrack, "If anybody watches Nyquist’s races, you will see that he will not allow any other horse past him. He’s the kind of horse that always has something left for whatever comes to him late."
Doug O'Neill, owner Paul Reddam and Gutierrez are no stranger to this situation. Just four years ago, they teamed up to win the Preakness Stakes with I'll Have Another after the colt pulled off a minor upset in the Derby. They never got their chance at the Triple Crown as I'll Have Another had to scratch with an injury. This year, they will get a shot.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
