
Duke Basketball: Strengths and Weaknesses of Blue Devils' 2016-17 Roster
Even the most talented teams in college basketball will have strengths as well as weaknesses heading into the season.
The Duke Blue Devils men's basketball team should go into the 2016-17 season as one of the top teams in every poll that exists. It added a loaded recruiting class to a solid group of returning players, making the squad a legitimate contender to bring another championship to Durham, North Carolina.
As good as this team will be, however, it will not be without faults, at least early in the year. The young squad might need some time to truly reach its potential, and until then, there are some weaknesses that could be exploited.
Still, there is plenty of reason for optimism with these strengths and weaknesses heading into next year.
Strength: Shot Creation
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One of the toughest things for young players to learn is how to create shots for themselves. Most know how to catch and shoot or finish at the rim, but only the elite can beat someone off the dribble and open up space to get a good look at the net.
Duke will have a bunch of players next season who won't need set plays in order to be successful.
Grayson Allen showed his ability to create for himself over the past year, averaging 21.6 points per game while finding success everywhere on the court. He should once again be the go-to option offensively and could be one of the top scorers in college basketball next season.
Meanwhile, freshmen Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and Harry Giles are all relatively advanced with this ability, although each utilizes a different style. Jackson is best driving to the basket, while Tatum has perhaps the best mid-range game in the country. Giles lost some time in his development due to injury, but when healthy, he can score inside or out and is devastating in one-on-one situations.
With so many individual options offensively, the Blue Devils shouldn't go through too many extended scoring droughts. At any point, one of these players should be able to take over and get a bucket when needed.
It will also make things pretty easy for head coach Mike Krzyzewski on that end of the court.
Weakness: Perimeter Defense
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Defense was an issue for Duke this past season, and that might not change during the 2016-17 season.
As good as Allen is on offense, he is a bit of a liability defensively. According to Sports-Reference.com, his offensive box plus/minus was among the best in the nation at 9.0, but the 0.7 defensive mark was well below average.
The rest of the defense might depend on how the coaching staff utilizes the rotations. Tatum and Luke Kennard are certainly worth keeping on the court, but both need work defensively. On the other hand, a quality defender like Matt Jones could end up seeing reduced minutes this year with so many other options on the roster.
It seems the better the lineup is offensively, the bigger the question marks will be on the defensive end.
Duke can simply try to outscore opponents like it did this past year, but quick, athletic guards will have a field day scoring against this squad. Without many true rim protectors down low, you could see a lot of penetration and finishes in the paint.
This is one area that will require a lot of work as the year progresses.
Strength: Outside Shooting
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This shouldn't be a surprise for anyone who has watched this program through the years, but once again the Blue Devils will be deadly from the outside.
Duke made 38.5 percent of three-point shots this past season and returns elite shooters in Allen (41.7 percent) and Jones (41.5 percent). Kennard lacked consistency from beyond the arc, but he has the ability to knock down a high percentage of looks as a sophomore.
The incoming freshmen will also be a big help in this area. Jackson showed off his ability by going 5-of-7 from deep in the McDonald's All-American Game, while Tatum and even Giles are more than capable of stretching the floor.
Opponents will be forced to cover a lot of ground defensively, which will open up space to make plays in the paint. Double-teams will also be nearly impossible, as they will leave someone free to make a shot.
Although Duke won't be as dependent on three-pointers as it has been in the past, it will be a nice luxury throughout the year.
Weakness: Rebounding
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Duke finished last season ranked just 330th out of 351 teams in defensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom.com. The smaller lineup made the squad almost impossible to defend on offense, but it created limitations on the interior defense, especially when it came to winning on the boards.
Amile Jefferson will effectively replace Marshall Plumlee, and if healthy, Giles will also represent a big boost in this part of the game.
The problem is there is still a long way to go to even get to average on the defensive boards. Chase Jeter and Sean Obi could be useful, but neither showed enough last year to have faith in a breakout in 2016-17. Any production from this duo would represent a bonus.
Incoming freshman Javin DeLaurier also has the size (6'9", 215 lbs) to contribute in the post, but he is relatively raw compared to the rest of the class and might struggle to find minutes early in the year.
This puts a lot of pressure on Marques Bolden's decision. The 5-star recruit, per 247Sports, is still deciding between Duke and Kentucky and will give one of these teams an enormous interior presence that will help on both ends of the court. For the Blue Devils, he would provide some much-needed size in the post at 6'11" and 250 pounds.
If he doesn't come to Durham, someone else will need to step up to help avoid second-chance opportunities all game long.
Strength: Depth
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This will be the biggest improvement from last year's team heading into next season.
Duke mostly played just six men during the majority of the past season, usually only bringing in Jeter as a seventh member of the rotation when necessary. Otherwise, the only real substitutions were Kennard and Derryck Thornton switching in the backcourt. Allen and Brandon Ingram often played close to 40 minutes per game.
That won't be the case next season with a lineup that could go at least 10 men deep if needed.
There will be a lot of versatility in the backcourt with Jackson, Allen, Jones and Kennard rotating at different positions from 1 to 3. Tatum can play either forward spot, while the frontcourt will be filled with at least Giles, Jefferson, Jeter and DeLaurier.
Not only will this give the coaching staff more options for various lineups, but it will also allow the key players to get a lot more rest throughout the year. The entire roster will be fresher for March, which is especially important with quick turnarounds in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
Meanwhile, the squad won't need to go into panic mode when one player gets into foul trouble in the first half. You can afford keeping someone on the bench for an extended period of time while others step up in his absence.
The downfall of the 2015-16 team will all of a sudden become a strength.
Weakness: Chemistry
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Chemistry will define Duke's season, for better or worse.
As Villanova and North Carolina showed last season, chemistry is important when it comes to success in college basketball. Getting players comfortable with each other as well as filling specific roles within a lineup might be as important as talent itself.
The hardest part of the one-and-done era is getting high-profile players to work together for a team goal instead of focusing on their futures and NBA stock. With only a few months to build a rapport, this is nearly impossible.
Teams have obviously figured out a way to make it work with freshmen leading the way, but those cases required the right players. The Blue Devils figured this out in 2014-15 with Tyus Jones, one of the best pure point guards in the country, Jahlil Okafor, arguably the most advanced freshman big in a decade, and Justise Winslow, an unselfish forward who was willing to play defense and take over only when needed.
These players had the perfect personalities and styles of play to be successful around each other.
Duke's current roster could have the right attitude, although a bigger question is how it will work together on the court. Jackson is a talented player, but he is more of a combo guard who looks to score first. Allen and Tatum are also best with the ball in their hands and creating for themselves, which leaves questions about how they will share the rock.
There is an obvious lack of experience, but the bigger issue is how all these players will perform together.
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