Kentucky Derby 2016: Early Preakness Predictions After Churchill Downs Results
Nyquist made good on the oddsmakers' expectations with an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby Saturday, and he enters the Preakness Stakes with the expectation that he will pull to within one victory of taking the Triple Crown.
While it isn't yet clear which horses will oppose Nyquist at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore on May 21, some stood out with strong showings in the Kentucky Derby, and others who were left out of the Run for the Roses may make their presences known as well.
In addition to a full listing of results from Saturday's race at Churchill Downs, here are some early predictions for which horses will finish in the win, place and show positions at the Preakness.
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| 1 | 13 | Nyquist | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | ------ |
| 2 | 11 | Exaggerator | Kent Desormeaux | Keith Desormeaux | 1 ¼ |
| 3 | 5 | Gun Runner | Florent Geroux | Steve Asmussen | 4 ½ |
| 4 | 14 | Mohaymen | Junior Alvarado | Kiaran McLaughlin | 4 ½ |
| 5 | 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | Luis Quinonez | Donnie Von Hemel | 4 ½ |
| 6 | 9 | Destin | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 6 ¾ |
| 7 | 19 | Brody's Cause | Luis Saez | Dale Romans | 9 ¼ |
| 8 | 4 | Mo Tom | Corey Lanerie | Tom Amoss | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | Lani | Yutaka Take | Mikio Matsunaga | 10 ½ |
| 10 | 17 | Mor Spirit | Gary Stevens | Bob Baffert | 14 ¼ |
| 11 | 6 | My Man Sam | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Chad Brown | 14 ¼ |
| 12 | 12 | Tom's Ready | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Dallas Stewart | 16 ¾ |
| 13 | 3 | Creator | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Steve Asmussen | 18 |
| 14 | 15 | Outwork | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 18 ¼ |
| 15 | 20 | Danzing Candy | Mike Smith | Cliff Sise Jr. | 19 ¾ |
| 16 | 1 | Trojan Nation | Aaron Gryder | Patrick Gallagher | 27 ½ |
| 17 | 7 | Oscar Nominated | Julien Leparoux | Mike Maker | 33 ¼ |
| 18 | 18 | Majesto | Emisael Jaramillo | Gustavo Delgado | 37 ½ |
| 19 | 10 | Whitmore | Victor Espinoza | Ron Moquett | 38 |
| 20 | 16 | Shagaf | Joel Rosario | Chad Brown | DNF |
Win: Nyquist
Jockey Mario Gutierrez took Nyquist to the front early in the Run for the Roses, and while Exaggerator gave him somewhat of a scare late, he still had plenty left in the tank to seal the deal.
As seen in this replay of the race via NBC Sports, Nyquist helped set what turned out to be a blistering pace:
According to Ron Flatter of CBS Sports Radio, Nyquist's winning time was the fastest by a Kentucky Derby victor in 13 years:
Exaggerator cut down Nyquist's margin of victory in the latter stages, but the Preakness is a half-furlong shorter than the Kentucky Derby, which should bode well for a front-running horse like Nyquist.
He also has a fantastic team around him, as trainer Doug O'Neill and Gutierrez combined to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes with I'll Have Another in 2012 before being forced to withdraw the horse from the Belmont Stakes due to an injury.
They have a chance to finish what they started, and O'Neill is of the belief that Nyquist is his best horse yet, per Jeremy Balan of BloodHorse.com:
Nyquist is undefeated in eight career races, and until another horse manages to knock him off, there is little reason to pick against him.
An argument could be made for an opponent ahead of the Belmont Stakes since that race is a longer distance and could potentially trip him up, but the Preakness distance of 9 ½ furlongs should be perfect for Nyquist and his pursuit of the Triple Crown.
Place: Cupid
The biggest X-factor entering the Preakness may be the status of Bob Baffert-trained colt Cupid, who missed the Kentucky Derby due to injury.
According to Richard Rosenblatt of the Associated Press (h/t the Lexington Herald-Leader), Cupid suffered an entrapped epiglottis in the Arkansas Derby, and the breathing issue prompted Baffert to hold him out of the Run for the Roses.
Baffert said on April 18 that Cupid "should be OK in a week" and that he would consider entering him into the Preakness.
Although Cupid was extremely disappointing in the Arkansas Derby with a 10th-place finish, he won his previous two races, including the Rebel Stakes over Kentucky Derby entrants Whitmore and Creator.
If Cupid is entered into the Preakness, it is difficult to predict how he will perform due to the uncertainty surrounding his breathing.
Baffert is unlikely to put him in the race unless he is 100 percent, though, and if the Rebel Stakes is any indication of his ability, he could give Nyquist some nervous moments at the very least.
Show: Exaggerator
While the Kentucky Derby field was ripe with talent, the only horse who appeared to be anywhere near Nyquist's level was Exaggerator.
Jockey Kent Desormeaux kept him off the pace for much of the Run for the Roses before turning him loose late and giving him the opportunity to chase down the heavy favorite.
He ultimately ran out of space and time, but the Keith Desormeaux-trained horse gained his fair share of fans after such a strong performance.
Balan was among them:
Melissa Bauer-Herzog of AmericasBestRacing.net had plenty of praise for the Santa Anita Derby winner after his second-place Kentucky Derby finish as well:
While the Desormeaux brothers have yet to indicate if Exaggerator will take part in the Preakness, the fact that he proved a worthy challenger to Nyquist suggests he will be provided he is healthy.
If Exaggerator does run, he figures to be in the mix once again, but he may not be able to keep things as close as he did in the Derby.
The shorter length of the Preakness means Desormeaux will have to make his move earlier in the race, which could compromise what Exaggerator has left for the stretch run.
It is an extremely delicate balance, and while it may lead to another finish in the money, it isn't likely to be enough to contend with Nyquist.
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