Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Horse Odds, Prize Money Predictions and More
The 2016 Kentucky Derby features a full field of 20 horses vying for the biggest prize in horse racing. It's a wide-open field of thoroughbreds, with Nyquist looking to become the fourth-straight favorite to win at Churchill Downs.
Being the betting favorite has proved to be the ideal spot. Per OddsShark, Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah left the Kentucky Derby victorious after entering as the morning line favorite. American Pharoah won the Triple Crown last year, while California Chrome also won the Preakness Stakes.
Nyquist has a lot to live up to, though his career performance up to this point has been spotless. He's a perfect 7-0, including defeating presumptive favorite Mohaymen in the Florida Derby last month.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
| 1 | Trojan Nation | 66-1 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | 20-1 |
| 3 | Creator | 12-1 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | 22-1 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | 9-1 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | 66-1 |
| 8 | Lani | 28-1 |
| 9 | Destin | 14-1 |
| 10 | Whitmore | 18-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | 7.5-1 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | 40-1 |
| 13 | Nyquist | 3-1 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | 8-1 |
| 15 | Outwork | 16-1 |
| 16 | Shagaf | 28-1 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | 14-1 |
| 18 | Majesto | 33-1 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | 14-1 |
| 20 | Danzing | 20-1 |
Expected Prize Money
The purse for this year's Kentucky Derby is expected to be identical to last year's race. An official release from TheTripleCrown.com noted the minimum guaranteed purse for the 2016 Run for the Roses is $2 million.
| First | $1.24 million |
| Second | $400,000 |
| Third | $200,000 |
| Fourth | $100,000 |
| Fifth | $60,000 |
Even though the horse gets the bulk of the glory in these races, jockeys deserve credit for the job they do figuring out when to push their animal in an effort to capture the title.
The winning jockey is compensated nicely for his/her efforts, though it's not nearly as lucrative as what the horse gets. Robert Raiola, sports and entertainment senior group manager at PKF O'Connor Davies, broke down the numbers for last year's winning jockey, Victor Espinoza:
Money is one of the biggest reasons the Kentucky Derby has become such a huge cultural phenomenon, even among people who don't pay attention to horse racing outside of Triple Crown season.
According to CNN's Chris Isidore, a total of $138 million was bet legally on last year's Kentucky Derby. Isidore did note that Saturday will also be the "first test" to determine if there is any lasting impact from American Pharoah's Triple Crown triumph last year.
Considering how much anticipation and pressure there was every year for horses to win three consecutive races in a two-month period, the audience reaction this year now that the drought is over will be fascinating to watch.
Ratings and ticket sales shouldn't be impacted because of how much of an event the Kentucky Derby is, and there are also people willing to wager money on any sporting event.
Race Prediction
I have said since the post positions were announced that I believe Mohaymen is going to triumph at Churchill Downs. It's not exactly going out on a limb, since he does have the third-best odds, but he does seem to be flying under the radar.
Before stumbling his way to a fourth-place finish at the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was a perfect 5-0. He was supposed to be the Kentucky Derby favorite before Nyquist changed everyone's plans, leading many to to question Mohaymen.
Mohaymen's trainer Kiaran McLaughlin perfectly summed up why any skepticism around his horse is being overblown to Mike Farrell of the Associated Press: "We still have confidence in him. He only had a bad minute, 49 seconds in his whole life."
McLaughlin also cited various factors to Farrell that played a role in Mohaymen's effort at the Florida Derby, including "a very short run to the first turn, a wet track, that Mohaymen had shipped from the Palm Meadows training center to Gulfstream Park on the day of the race."
The wet track in Florida seems like the biggest factor, as it can hinder footing and speed due to muddy conditions. That's not making an excuse for Mohaymen, it's just an observation that he may be better suited to running in clean conditions.
Per Weather.com's forecast in Louisville for Saturday, it's supposed to be a perfect day with high temperatures of 83 degrees and no chance of rain.
Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form also noted earlier in the week that Mohaymen seemed to be anxiously waiting for the race to start:
Mohaymen's draw out of post 14 has not historically produced many winners, with OddsShark listing just two since 1900.
However, things did work out well because Mohaymen is starting alongside Nyquist, so whichever horse gets out of the gate clean and in front will likely hold the edge for the rest of the race.
In a year without a consensus favorite like American Pharoah, anything can happen at the Kentucky Derby. Mohaymen has the look of a potential Triple Crown champion, and his team has the motivation necessary to turn things around after their last race.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
