2016 Kentucky Derby: Projecting Order of Finish and Payouts for Entire Field
With no dominant horses in the 2016 Kentucky Derby field, numerous thoroughbreds have a realistic shot of clinching the first leg of the Triple Crown.
The past three pre-race favorites, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb, emerged victorious at Churchill Downs, which should bode well for Nyquist, the presumptive top horse at 3-1 heading into Saturday's showdown. According to Odds Shark, a win from Nyquist would be the first time since 1972 to 1975, a time span that included Secretariat, that four favorites have won consecutively.
Unfortunately for Nyquist, the 142nd running of the Derby will be a day of firsts but not in the prime contender's favor.
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| Place | Horse | Gate | Odds | Payout |
| 1 | Gun Runner | 5 | 9-1 | $1.24 Million |
| 2 | Nyquist | 13 | 3-1 | $400,000 |
| 3 | Mohaymen | 14 | 8-1 | $200,000 |
| 4 | Exaggerator | 11 | 15-2 | $100,000 |
| 5 | Mor Spirit | 17 | 14-1 | $60,000 |
| 6 | Destin | 9 | 14-1 | - |
| 7 | Outwork | 15 | 16-1 | - |
| 8 | Whitmore | 10 | 18-1 | - |
| 9 | Suddenbreakingnews | 2 | 20-1 | - |
| 10 | Creator | 3 | 12-1 | - |
| 11 | Mo Tom | 4 | 22-1 | - |
| 12 | Lani | 8 | 28-1 | - |
| 13 | Trojan Nation | 1 | 66-1 | - |
| 14 | Danzing Candy | 20 | 20-1 | - |
| 15 | Oscar Nominated | 7 | 66-1 | - |
| 16 | My Man Sam | 6 | 20-1 | - |
| 17 | Brody's Cause | 19 | 14-1 | - |
| 18 | Tom's Ready | 12 | 40-1 | - |
| 19 | Majesto | 18 | 33-1 | - |
| 20 | Shagaf | 16 | 28-1 | - |
Since no horse is head and shoulders above any other in terms of physical ability, post positioning will be crucial.
Nyquist drew the 13th spot, which puts him on the outside half of the track to start the race. Historically, no position from 11 to 20 has won more than five times, while gates one through 10 gave way to double-digit winners five times, per Odds Shark.
Four horses before Nyquist went on to win after starting at No. 13, which Daily Racing Form's David Grening noted could put him in solid company:
The No. 5 position is historically the most desirable, as it previously yielded a winner 13 times, the most of any position. That spot just so happens to belong to Gun Runner, one of the top horses in this race.
Gun Runner, trained by the legendary Steve Asmussen, is a powerful horse with some of the best speed in this competition, as evidenced by this warm-up run from Monday:
Given that the Kentucky Derby is 10 furlongs, which equates to 1 ¼ miles, Gun Runner can expect a pace of roughly two minutes, five seconds. American Pharoah won the race with an approximate finish of two minutes, three seconds. No horse in this race is of Pharoah's caliber, which should give Asmussen some serious hope.
Mor Spirit is another interesting contender. The horse is consistent, having never finished worse than second place, according to AL.com's Mark Inabinett. Yet, he also received a rough hand, as no horse starting at No. 17 has ever won the Derby. This horrid history, the presence of strong horses such as Exaggerator, Mohaymen and Nyquist, and the prowess and position of Gun Runner make it likely Mor Spirit will finish lower than second.
Exaggerator possesses the second-highest odds, and for good reason. The horse has nine career victories and nearly defeated Nyquist at the San Vicente Stakes, losing by just 1 ½ lengths. Yet, per Inabinett, four horses in the Derby field have beaten Exaggerator, who sits at the No. 11 gate. Given his history and difficult starting spot, it is tough to go with Exaggerator here.
Gun Runner is in a great spot, and Asmussen, who has gone 0-13 in this race, per Odds Shark, has to win a Derby eventually.
Doug O'Neill, trainer of Nyquist, told Ed McNamara of Newsday that winning the Kentucky Derby takes more than having the strongest horse.
"Whenever you line up 20 of the best three-year-olds, you don’t necessarily have to be the best horse," O’Neill said. "But you’ve got to be the luckiest horse, because with a lot of these horses you’re splitting hairs on the talent level."
With that in mind, all signs point toward Asmussen's top horse.
According to Inabinett, Nyquist has been in the lead heading down the stretch in his last six races. This means he will be in contention at the end of the race, but Gun Runner will use the extra energy gained from his favorable post position to hold off the favorite.
Prediction: Gun Runner takes the 2016 Kentucky Derby.
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