Kentucky Derby 2016: Projected Prize Money Earnings, Order of Finish and More
The Kentucky Derby is known as "the most exciting two minutes in sports," and that is all it will take Nyquist’s team to earn a rich payday Saturday at Churchill Downs.
According to KentuckyDerby.com, the “winner will receive a gold trophy plus an estimated $1.24 million payday. A total of $400,000 will be awarded to the runner-up, $200,000 to third, $100,000 to fourth and $60,000 to fifth.”
Nyquist is the favorite at Saturday’s race, per Odds Shark, and he will deliver with that much at stake. With that in mind, here is a look at the projected prize money earnings using the KentuckyDerby.com figures and a predicted order of finish for the 20 competitors:
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| 1 | Nyquist | $1.24 Million |
| 2 | Exaggerator | $400,000 |
| 3 | Mohaymen | $200,000 |
| 4 | Mor Spirit | $100,000 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | $60,000 |
| 6 | Creator | -- |
| 7 | Suddenbreakingnews | -- |
| 8 | My Man Sam | -- |
| 9 | Destin | -- |
| 10 | Outwork | -- |
| 11 | Brody's Cause | -- |
| 12 | Danzing Candy | -- |
| 13 | Whitmore | -- |
| 14 | Lani | -- |
| 15 | Mo Tom | -- |
| 16 | Tom's Ready | -- |
| 17 | Shagaf | -- |
| 18 | Majesto | -- |
| 19 | Oscar Nominated | -- |
| 20 | Trojan Nation | -- |
Predicted Winner and Sleepers to Watch
There is plenty to like about Nyquist outside of the fact he is the favorite heading into the Derby.
He is a perfect 7-0 in his career and already notched notable victories at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby. He also handled Exaggerator in head-to-head battles three separate times and blew past Mohaymen—who was previously undefeated and considered a dangerous threat at the Kentucky Derby—during the Florida Derby.
Thanks to his tactical speed and overall versatility, Nyquist isn’t married to a quick start or even a late charge as his only paths to victory. Jockey Mario Gutierrez will read the field during the race and seize the most opportune moment to make a run, which will ultimately lead to a triumph for Nyquist.
What’s more, Nyquist even drew the No. 13 post, which means he won’t run the risk of being trapped against the rail from an inside gate or getting pushed too far from the pace from an outside gate. The title is there for the taking, and Nyquist will do just that at Churchill Downs.
However, rallying behind the favorite isn’t always the most exciting way to approach the Kentucky Derby. Along those lines, look for Mor Spirit and Gun Runner to play the role of dangerous sleepers on Saturday before ultimately bowing out to Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen.
For the purpose of this article, a sleeper is defined as any horse that is outside of the top three finishers in the above predictions.
The biggest problem for Mor Spirit is the fact he drew the No. 17 post on Wednesday. Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times noted no horse in Kentucky Derby history has ever won from that gate, but Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports was quick to caution against drawing too many conclusions from that stat:
In fact, Paul Rolfes of the Courier-Journal pointed out four of the last five winners at the Derby have come from the outside auxiliary starting gate that is specifically used for this 20-horse event. Churchill Downs typically has a 14-slot gate, but it has to expand for the Derby an additional six-slot gate on the outside.
There may not be any victories from No. 17 in the Kentucky Derby history books, but recent races have proved horses can come from the outside and make a late charge to win. Mor Spirit isn’t as far out as the Nos. 19 and 20 gates, and jockey Gary Stevens will have him among the leaders by the final stretch.
Mor Spirit already counts three wins on his resume, per KentuckyDerby.com, and has the team of Stevens and trainer Bob Baffert on his side. Baffert has four Kentucky Derby titles to his name (and made history with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah last year), while Stevens has won three times at every Triple Crown event, per KentuckyDerby.com.
If any combination is going to scare the top finishers from an auxiliary starting spot, it will be Stevens and Baffert behind Mor Spirit.
As for Gun Runner, he has four victories in five career starts, per KentuckyDerby.com, including a win at the Louisiana Derby in March during the 1 1/8-mile race. The Kentucky Derby is a similarly distanced 1 1/4-mile race, so it is encouraging that he paced the field in Louisiana even if he will need slightly more stamina for the finishing kick at Churchill Downs.
Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal pointed to Gun Runner’s tactical speed (which is what Nyquist also boasts) and said the colt reached a “respectable 100 Brisnet speed figure in his last start.”
Gun Runner is starting from Gate 5, which means he can use that speed to jump out to a quick start and attempt to establish favorable positioning for the stretch run by pacing past the inside four horses. Trainer Steve Asmussen said, “Gun runner is a quick horse—extremely athletic and capable of being very close to any pace,” per Lintner.
That athleticism will help him in the early going, and the tactical speed and ability to be “close to any pace” will prove fruitful in the middle portion of the race. Gun Runner won’t have the same closing stretch as Nyquist, but he will still challenge as a sleeper in this race.
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