Kentucky Derby Entries 2016: Race-Day Predictions for Horses, Jockeys in Lineup
The date for the 2016 Kentucky Derby has officially arrived.
Saturday marks the 142nd Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, where 20 horses and jockeys will race 1 ¼ miles to achieve the first Triple Crown jewel.
Nyquist opened the morning-line odds as the 3-1 favorite, followed by Exaggerator at 8-1 and a trio of others in Mohaymen, Gun Runner and Creator as 10-1 co-third favorites. The former three horses will be in close proximity from the starting gates, adding intrigue to Saturday's showcase.
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Below is a listing of the complete field as it stands, along with predictions for how the final order will shake out.
| 1 | Trojan Nation | Patrick Gallagher | Aaron T. Gryder | 50-1 | 20 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | Donnie K. Von Hemel | Luis Quinonez | 20-1 | 17 |
| 3 | Creator | Steven M. Asmussen | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 10-1 | 4 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | Thomas M. Amoss | Corey J. Lanerie | 20-1 | 13 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | Steven M. Asmussen | Florent Geroux | 10-1 | 7 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | Chad C. Brown | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 | 12 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | Michael J. Maker | Julien R. Leparoux | 50-1 | 19 |
| 8 | Lani | Mikio Matsunaga | Yutaka Take | 30-1 | 15 |
| 9 | Destin | Todd A. Pletcher | Javier Castellano | 15-1 | 16 |
| 10 | Whitmore | Ron Moquett | Victor Espinoza | 20-1 | 11 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | J. Keith Desormeaux | Kent J. Desormeaux | 8-1 | 3 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | Dallas Stewart | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 30-1 | 14 |
| 13 | Nyquist | Doug F. O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 3-1 | 2 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | Kiaran P. McLaughlin | Junior Alvarado | 10-1 | 1 |
| 15 | Outwork | Todd A. Pletcher | John R. Velazquez | 15-1 | 8 |
| 16 | Shagaf | Chad C. Brown | Joel Rosario | 20-1 | 18 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | Bob Baffert | Gary L. Stevens | 12-1 | 5 |
| 18 | Majesto | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | 30-1 | 10 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | Dale L. Romans | Luis Saez | 12-1 | 6 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | Clifford W. Sise Jr. | Mike E. Smith | 15-1 | 9 |
| Also Eligible | Laoban | Eric J. Guillot | Jose Lezcano | — | — |
| Also Eligible | Cherry Wine | Dale L. Romans | Robby Albarado | — | — |
2016 Kentucky Derby Preview, Predictions
Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith figures to set the pace for the race aboard speedster Danzing Candy. The pair will have plenty of room to operate furthest from the rail.
Brody's Cause may have suffered most from the post position draw. A lot of collective speed lingers on the outer posts, which doesn't really play into the Blue Grass Stakes winner's favor. Had he been a bit closer to the inside, he could've had even shorter odds.
While he should have a fine Churchill Downs trip based on his prior maiden special weight victory at the track, Brody's Cause probably won't be close enough to the front to make a push for the winner's circle.
Traffic trouble shouldn't plague Creator or Gunner Runner from the third and fifth posts respectively, but they also don't boast the resume of the other three contenders, as forecast by the morning-line odds.
Once the final few furlongs hit, proven prolific winner Nyquist, a champion in all seven of his prior races, will get a chance to strut his stuff once again and test his stamina to an unprecedented degree.
If his history is any indication, Nyquist could well become the first undefeated horse since Big Brown in 2008 to win the Derby. Interestingly, undefeated champion Smarty Jones also began the 2004 Kentucky Derby from the 13th post position.
"I think you have to look at his credentials; he's won four Grade 1s on four different tracks," said trainer Doug O'Neill of Nyquist, per USA Today's Dan Wolken. "If the Florida Derby was a mile and a half he would have won. Nobody has run a mile and a quarter yet, so we'll see, but I'm very optimistic."
PredictionMachine.com's Paul Bessire has data to suggest Nyquist is a greater favorite than he was given credit for in the morning line:
But second favorite Exaggerator is no slouch—and he doesn't have the pressure of being the apparent horse to beat, nor a perfect record to preserve.
What Exaggerator does have is a stunning, 6 ½-length romp in the slop of the Santa Anita Derby from his last start. That may well be his best possible performance, though. Expecting a similar run out of him to claim victory at Churchill Downs is tough since he's won four of nine starts.
That leads to the other yet-to-be-mentioned, prominent colt in Mohaymen. His pedigree is impeccable and boasts Seattle Slew and Secretariat as relatives (h/t PedigreeQuery.com). They are Triple Crown winners, and Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic victor A.P. Indy is also in Mohaymen's lineage.
Mohaymen suffered his first defeat to Nyquist and others in the Florida Derby when he finished fourth. If bettors are willing to cast that aside as a fluke and take into account Mohaymen's five prior wins and pedigree, he's as good of a bet as any in Louisville.
Among the dark horses, one worth keeping an eye on is 12-1 shot Mor Spirit.
Jockeyed by three-time Kentucky Derby champion Gary Stevens and mentored by the legendary trainer Bob Baffert, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up has finished in the top two in seven past races. He could keep that trend going with a veteran like Stevens in the irons if anyone stumbles toward Saturday's finish.
Stats courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com.
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