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Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Field Info, Horses Odds and Predictions

Alec NathanMay 5, 2016

The draw for the 2016 Kentucky Derby came and went Wednesday, which means it's time to dive into which horses will have the best shots at starting off this year's Triple Crown cycle in style.

Morning-line favorite Nyquist (3-1) drew a solid spot in the 13th post, which last produced a Derby winner in 2004, when Smarty Jones broke through. But plenty of attention should be paid to Gun Runner (10-1) in post No. 9 and burner Danzing Candy (15-1) in post No. 20 on the far outside following the draw. 

A detailed look at this year's post positions and odds can be viewed below, courtesy of NBC Sports Network on Twitter. 

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1Trojan NationAaron GryderPatrick Gallagher50-1
2SuddenbreakingnewsLuis QuinonezDonnie Von Hemel20-1
3CreatorRicardo Santana Jr.Steven Asmussen10-1
4Mo TomCorey LanerieThomas Amoss20-1
5Gun RunnerFlorent GerouxSteven Asmussen10-1
6My Man SamIrad Ortiz Jr.Chad Brown20-1
7Oscar NominatedJulien LeparouxMichael Maker50-1
8LaniYukata TakeMikio Matsunaga30-1
9DestinJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher15-1
10WhitmoreVictor EspinozaRon Moquett20-1
11ExaggeratorKent DesormeauxJ. Keith Desormeaux8-1
12Tom's ReadyBrian Hernandez Jr.Dallas Stewart30-1
13NyquistMario GutierrezDoug O'Neill3-1
14MohaymenJunior AlvaradoKiaran McLaughlin10-1
15OutworkJohn VelazquezTodd Pletcher15-1
16ShagafJoel RosarioChad Brown20-1
17Mor SpiritGary StevensBob Baffert12-1
18MajestoEmisael JaramilloGustavo Delgado30-1
19Brody's CauseLuis SaezDale Romans12-1
20Danzing CandyMike SmithClifford Sise Jr.15-1

Preview and Prediction

We'll start with Nyquist, since the undefeated morning-line favorite is generating tons of hype ahead of Saturday's post time.

Although the 13th post has only churned out one winner since 1999, according to America's Best Racing's Christina Moore, the team behind Nyquist didn't appear perturbed by Wednesday's outcome in the slightest.

"The post draw didn't matter to us a ton, but we're happy being more toward the outside for sure," trainer Doug O'Neill said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "The whole team is pumped up. We're just very optimistic for a big day."

But even though post position history isn't kind to Nyquist, recent trends regarding morning-line favorites are. According to OddsShark.com's Mike Dempsey, each of the last three morning-line favorites has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, with Orb (5-1), California Chrome (5-2) and American Pharoah (5-2) all living up to expectations. 

However, Wednesday's draw wasn't quite as kind to Danzing Candy. The San Felipe Stakes winner was previously viewed as one of Nyquist's primary challengers, but as Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde noted, the 20th post could spell doom: 

If Danzing Candy is able to breeze past the competition and establish a position as the race's pace-setter, a surprise could be in store. But considering only one horse in 14 tries has captured a Kentucky Derby crown out of the 20th post, the odds aren't exactly in Danzing Candy's favor. 

Finally, there's Gun Runner.

Not only is the chestnut colt running out of the No. 5 post—which has produced a Derby-best 13 winners since 1900, per Dempsey—but the arrow is pointing up with the year's biggest race finally here. 

"His progression has been very good starting from last year," trainer Steve Asmussen said, according to the Courier-Journal's Jonathan Lintner. "He's always had a lot of talent. I think physically, he has continued to develop, and with that, he's gotten a little stronger, a little faster all along."

Predictions: 1. Nyquist, 2. Gun Runner, 3. Exaggerator

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