Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse

As if reaching the 142nd Kentucky Derby wasn’t a big enough accomplishment, the post-position draw added another element: a crap shoot, a lottery.

A double-blind draw determines which horses will break from which posts. In this case, few horses got saddled with poor draws.

Nyquist, the 3-1 favorite on the morning line*, attempts to become the first undefeated two-year-old champion to win the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew did it in 1977.

The Slew went on to win the Triple Crown. Does Nyquist have what it takes to make it back-to-back Triple Crown winners?

Horses like Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Brody’s Cause, Creator and Gun Runner will have something to say about that.

So let’s drill down on each horse by post position and their chances to win at the break.

*All odds come courtesy off Churchill Downs odds maker Mike Battaglia as announced during the NBC Sports broadcast.

Post 1: Trojan Nation

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 9.3

Prediction: 19th

Trojan Nation’s past performances are sort of hilarious. He has a streak of five straight maiden special weights* then a Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep berth in the Wood Memorial.

He caught an off track that day at Aqueduct and nearly ran down Outwork in the slowest running of the Wood in its storied history.

Trainer Paddy Gallagher is on the ninth cloud. He said: “We’re in! He’s got no (early) speed. We’re fine there.”

Trojan Nation, a son of Street Cry, will be a deer in the headlights of 19 18** monster trucks in this race.

He is lucky that he’s a closer because he can fall out of the gate and let the race unfold. He’ll have company to his right, however, the late-charging…

*FYI…Still a maiden.

**Sorry, I have no respect for Oscar Nomination in this race.

Post 2: Suddenbreakingnews

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 8.1

Prediction: Fifth

At second call in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, Suddenbreakingnews was nearly 10 lengths back of the leaders.

By the top of the stretch, he was a length back and swinging way out to the center of the track. He ran the farthest of all the horses that day and finished second to Creator.

The post position favors his running style since he won’t have to contend for position along the fence.

“It's good with us,” said trainer Donnie Von Hemel. “He's surrounded by horses with similar running styles and shouldn't get shuffled back. He should be able to get comfortable from there."

Then again, maybe he will.

Posts 1, 2 3, and 4 harbor closers. There’s sure to be some shuffling, but not the madcap UFC scrambling the speed horses usually suffer in the first quarter-mile at Churchill Downs.

Post 3: Creator

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 5.8

Prediction: Sixth

Creator is the co-third choice on the morning line.

If you’re a herd-dynamic handicapper, you’ll dig his Arkansas Derby win. When he locked flanks with Whitmore, he charged ahead for the win. Certain horses want the lead; others shy from it.

The post shouldn’t hinder him unless he gets into an unprecedented anti-speed duel with Trojan Nation and Suddenbreakingnews as they each vie for strategic ground-saving position along the rail.

“Creator, he's kind of out the back early,” said his trainer Steve Asmussen. “He won't have a long way to go left to find the fence early.

Closers tend to have a tough go of it in the Derby, so it will come down—as it always does—to navigating traffic.

Post 4: Mo Tom

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 5.8

Prediction: 13th

Mo Tom is yet another closer. I swear this field does have some dimensionality.

His big problem has been pilot error. His jockey, Corey Lanerie, has done just about everything in his power to prevent this colt from winning.

I mean, not really, but Mo Tom’s trainer, Tom Amoss, said after the Louisiana Derby, per Nola.com:

"

I was just puzzled as to why (Corey) went down to the rail. just hope he didn't hurt my horse. I am surprised. There were other choices and I don't understand why he did what he did. Watching this was like going to the schoolyard and watching your kid get beat up by another kid.

"

Having several weeks to stamp out that flame, Amoss said after the post draw:

"

I think the two most significant things about the draw are we drew toward the rail but not so close that it's a problem, and that there's a lot of speed way on the outside in this post-position draw. Those horses are going to have to be used out of the starting gate, and that I think will ensure a good pace, which is what we need.'

"

Those are solid odds on a horse that, if he finally gets a concerted run at the leaders, could provide backers with a ton of value.

Post 5: Gun Runner

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 10.5

Prediction: Ninth

Gun Runner sits atop the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, yet he’s the co-third choice at 10-1.

He benefits from being swift and having four closers to his left. That means he and his jockey Florent Geroux have a clear shot to the fence to save ground and maybe track directly behind the speed horses from outside.

Asmussen said after the post draw:

"

It's looks like all the pace is to the outside. Hopefully, prerace, everything goes smoothly. Hopefully, he stands up in the gates. Hopefully, he's away from there really good. But, we're very anxious right now with a very good horse going into the Derby. He's a tremendous horse. You want a good trip to show who he is.

"

If he’s still on the upswing, he could be a serious win threat from a prolific post position.

Post 6: My Man Sam

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 2.3

Prediction: 17th

My Man Sam gets a sour post position, but, like horses one through four, he’s a closer, so it renders post position a bit moot. The exception is Brody’s Cause, but we’ll get to that poor sucker later.

“I was looking for an inside post with My Man Sam so six will work just fine,” said trainer Chad Brown.

MMS took second in the Blue Grass Stakes three weeks ago. Can he move forward off that performance?

He’s hard to endorse with so many great closers in this field.

Post 7: Oscar Nomination

Morning-Line Odds: 50-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 7.1

Prediction: 20th

Don’t get me started on this horse.

He has zero starts on dirt. He won the Spiral Stakes and somehow earned enough points to snag a spot in the Derby field.

This colt won at Turfway Park, a track that still runs its races on the synthetic surface Polytrack. That surface plays or reacts more like turf. Oscar Nominated, a horse with grass up and down his pedigree, benefited from the surface.

You’d think for a dirt race like the Kentucky Derby horses would have to win races on, you know, dirt.

Many tracks have abandoned their soiree into the synthetic surfaces. They were in vogue in a post-Barbaro world. Keeneland, Santa Anita and Meydan all eschewed fake stuff for the real stuff. The result is a truer contender.

The result, for now, is horses like Oscar Nominated getting into this field on an empty resume*.

*People will cite Animal Kingdom as the exception to the rule. Let them cite him. Make Oscar Nomination prove it.

Post 8: Lani

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 9.4

Prediction: 15th

This Japanese horse has the most frequent flier miles of them all. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai and now comes to the States for a crack at roses.

His main problem is the gate: He’s, what’s the word, difficult.

“It was a good draw, ideal,” said trainer Makio Matsunaga. “The middle was ideal so I have no complaints about drawing number eight.”

NBC horse analyst Randy Moss said during the post-draw broadcast:

"

There are two other losers: No. 7 Oscar Nominated and No. 9 Destin. Why do I say that? Lani, the Japanese horse, in Post 8 is completely and utterly unpredictable. The trainers wanted no part of being next to Lani in the starting gate so I know Todd Pletcher and Mike Maker are not happy.

"

So either Lani will unhinge those horses or burn himself out before the race even starts. 

The Dubai-to-Roses road will remain unpaved and full of pot holes.

Post 9: Destin

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 4.9

Prediction: 18th

Destin is the most interesting horse in the field.

He’s undeniably fast, but his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is taking a decidedly different approach to the Derby. He opted to keep this horse on the shelf after his record-breaking win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.

“I’m OK with the nine for Destin,” Pletcher said. “The only thing that concerns me is the horse inside Destin (Lani). I have some concern about that horse acting up. But the posts themselves are fine.”

Destin hasn’t raced in two months. He’ll be fresh, but will he have the experience to win a race of this caliber? Obviously the answer is no, but will freshness trump a padded resume?

That’s the question. He could run off the screen or stammer home with his tail between his roan legs.

Post 10: Whitmore

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 11.4

Prediction: 12th

Post 10 gets a lot of winners, but Whitmore won’t be one of them. That still hasn’t tempered trainer Ron Moquett’s enthusiasm, though.

“We're tickled with it,” he said. “All we've been wanting is a good post and a good trip. Last year, we didn't get a good post and I don't know if it would have changed anything, but this year we have a better post and a better horse."

Whitmore stared into the eye of Creator down the stretch in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby and…wilted.

Maybe that is too strong a word, but he couldn’t keep pace and watched as Suddenbreakingnews—a horse with a far wider trip—blew past him.

At 20-1, Whitmore is a major underlay and a bad bet, even if Churchill Downs is his home track.

Post 11: Exaggerator

Morning-Line Odds: 8-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 2.7

Prediction: Second

Exaggerator exploded in the slop at Santa Anita and won his prep race by the largest margin of anyone in this field.

He’ll be running from off the pace for the Desormeaux brothers and breaking from Post 11. The issue, if there is one, is how long he’ll wait in the gate.

The starters load two horses at a time in the Derby: Posts 1 and 11, 2 and 12, and so forth. So Trojan Nation and Exaggerator will wait in the gate for at least 60 seconds as the entire field loads.

“I’m fine with it,” trainer Keith Desormeaux said. “Kent (Desormeaux, his brother and his rider) seems a bit concerned because he’ll have to wait some after they load. But I don’t see a problem. The horse is as cool as a cucumber. It’ll be fine.”

Kent has three Derby wins (Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, Big Brown). Exaggerator could be worthy of their company.

Post 12: Tom's Ready

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 4.2

Prediction: Seventh

Tom’s Ready doesn’t compare with many of these horses, but he’s got a trainer in Dallas Stewart who, for a two-year stretch, trained two bombs to runner-up finishes: Golden Soul in 2013 and Commanding Curve in 2014.

Tom’s Ready fits the mold.

“Great draw,” he said. “Great field. We're ready to go. The Bensons (the owners) are ready to go. We're ready to roll.''

The son of More Than Ready will track mid-pack. On paper he’s a no-show. But, as you know, these things are not run on paper, they’re run on dirt at Turfway Park.

Post 13: Nyquist

Morning-Line Odds: 3-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 5.8

Prediction: Third

Thanks for being so patient.

I suppose Nyquist is a deserving favorite given that he’s unbeaten and defeated horses (Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause) who went on to do great things.

But I still can’t get behind a horse who prepped in a seven-furlong sprint and then won over a muddy track (Florida Derby). That’s one two-turn race as a sophomore.

Breaking from Post 13, he’ll also have the determining speed to his outside, which forces his hand.

Randy Moss, NBC’s horse-racing analyst, said:

"

I think [jockey] Mario Gutierrez’ job on the favorite got a little bit tougher. It’s tough to analyze what’s going to happen, but he is inside of what is projected to be the other two speed horses being Outwork and on the far outside Danzing Candy.

"

If they had their druthers, Nyquist would have been outside the projected speed. That might make it a little more dicey.

The trainer (Doug O’Neill), the jockey (Gutierrez) and the owner (Paul Reddam) did this dance before with I’ll Have Another in 2012.

“He’s doing so well,” O’Neill said during the NBC Sports broadcast. “Breaking from the 13 is fine. He broke from the 13 when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. The post draw didn’t matter to us a ton, but we’re happy being more toward the outside for sure."

Oh, and another thing: Street Sense (2007) is the only horse to win the Juvenile and the Derby. The two almost never happen.

If you’re looking for evidence in the case of the Horse Players v. Favorites, there’s Exhibit A, maybe the only exhibit you need.

Post 14: Mohaymen

Morning-Line Odds: 10-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 3.3

Prediction: 10th

Draw a line through his Florida Derby with a black Sharpie.

What was billed as a battle between two unbeatens (Mo v. Ny), turned into a lop-sided affair with Nyquist pulling away and Mohaymen foundering in the mud.

“We’re happy,” said trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. “He’ll be the last one in the main gate, so it’s great. There’s a little space between the two gates. There are a lot worse posts, so we’re happy.”

That’s key. He’ll have a big break of space between Posts 14 and 15. On top of that, the horse in Post 15 (Outwork) will shoot for the lead giving Mohaymen mo’* room to jostle for position.

If he rebounds off his pre-Florida Derby form, he could be a live horse for the win. Then again, maybe he already peaked and maybe Nyquist broke his spirit at Gulfstream.

*Sorry.

Post 15: Outwork

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 9.3

Prediction: 11th

Outwork won the Wood Memorial in grueling fashion but came home in the slowest time in the history of the race.

Do we accept the win as a triumph (as the breeder/owner Mike Repole undoubtedly does) or do we look at this as a weak showing?

Outwork was all-out to beat a maiden (Trojan Nation). That’s a problem. What’s not a problem is the post.

“It gives us some room inside between the gates,” Pletcher said.

Outwork will likely get swept up in a speed duel with Danzing Candy and be cooked at the quarter-pole.

Post 16: Shagaaf

Morning-Line Odds: 20-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 9.3

Prediction: Eighth

Shagaaf is the son of Bernardini. That’s a big endorsement, but something tells me this horse—like Bernardini—will win the Midsummer Derby, as in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga, just not this Derby.

Shagaaf earned a nice post, but he’s in the second tier of horses for this race. Trainer Chad Brown may be the second-best conditioner of horses in the country, but his first Derby winner won’t come this year.

“We were looking for something on the outside with Shagaf with as big as he is so he’ll stay out of trouble,” Brown said. “Sixteen will work just fine. So now it’s just up to the horses and the jockeys.”

Post 17: Mor Spirit

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 0

Prediction: First

Let’s do a little math: Bob Baffert + Gary Stevens = seven Kentucky Derbys.

They partnered aboard the favorite in the 2001 Derby (Point Given, from the same post) but finished fifth. They went on to win the Preakness and Belmont, a back end of the Double Crown.

Now they pair up with Mor Spirit, a son of Eskendreya (bred by the Zayats, who bred American Pharoah, trained by Baffert).

Baffert told NBC’s Jay Privman during the broadcast:

"

Last time I had the 17 post was Point Given with Gary Stevens. And here we are again. I remember last year I had the 18 with American Pharoah. There was a scratch then there ended up being another scratch and we were in the 16.

I actually wanted the 16. All the speed are all on the outside, so there will probably be two different races going on.

"

That’s an astute observation, one that will mightily benefit Baffert and Stevens. Mor Spirit should sit nicely in the second flight of horses and do some serious damage down the lane, as Eskendreya did during the Wood Memorial in 2010*.

*He would have been the Derby favorite if an injury hadn’t sidelined him after the Wood.

Post 18: Majesto

Morning-Line Odds: 30-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 3.4

Prediction: 14th

Majesto caught an off-track at the Florida Derby, finishing second and earning enough points to get into the Derby.

Does anyone think he has a legitimate shot? No, so 30-1 to 40-1 sounds about fair for this son of Tiznow, who was himself a late-developing horse.

“I’d prefer a little more inside, but I cannot change it,” said trainer Gustavo Delgado. “But remember he’s a strong horse.”

Post 19: Brody's Cause

Morning-Line Odds: 12-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 4.2

Prediction: Fourth

Bummer. Total bummer. Brody’s Cause was the loser of the post draw.

He’s in a tough position. Does he try get up the track to secure a mid-pack position or does he sacrifice early track position to save ground?

Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey made his feelings clear on the broadcast:

"

I think the biggest loser is Brody’s Cause. He’s a horse that might get stacked up going five, six, seven-wide in the first turn, or take back farther to save some ground [and fall behind]. It’s not an elimination by any means, it just makes his job tougher.

"

He’ll charge with a late flourish for home-town trainer Dale Romans, who has a knack for getting horses ready for the Derby. But he hasn’t won one yet, and this post-position really dampens the mood.

“At first, I was a little bit disappointed, but after looking at the draw with the speed (Danzing Candy) outside of us, we’ll let him clear,” Romans said. “I think it’s going to be all right.”

Post 20: Danzing Candy

Morning-Line Odds: 15-1

Post Position Win Percentage: 7.1

Prediction: 16th

Last but not least we come to the speed demon of the Derby, the one who will dictate who wins and loses. Yes, his impact will set the record straight. 

If he goes out and runs opening fractions of 45 and change as he did in the Santa Anita Derby or 46 and change as he did in the San Felipe, he opens the doors for the closers.

If he goes out slower, or gets loose on the lead, jockey Mike Smith could carry this colt around the oval.

Trainer Cliff Sise said:

"

At first you're kind of stunned when they say 20, but when you start thinking about it, it's not that bad. It's better than the one-hole, especially for a speed horse—he can come over very gradually and he won't sit in the gate long. Actually, it might be in our favor. We're outside of any other speed horse, so we'll take it.

"

Big Brown won from Post 20 in 2008, but Danzing Candy is no Big Brown. He could still have the lead at the quarter-pole, but he’ll soon get swallowed up and fade.

Look for him to make win some Grade 1s and 2s as a sprinter later in the season.

All quotes unless otherwise noted came via KentuckyDerby.com.

Post-position stats came via America’s Best Racing.