Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw
The Kentucky Derby may not be until Saturday, but Nyquist, the presumptive favorite, already cleared a hurdle on Wednesday evening—the post position draw.
Nyquist landed position No. 13, which means he and jockey Mario Gutierrez don’t have to worry about quickly getting caught on the rail from the inside or falling too far behind from the outside. Gutierrez can tactically pick his spot to make a charge with the undefeated racehorse and ideally take the first step toward a Triple Crown.
With that in mind, here is a look at the post positions and morning line odds from Wednesday’s broadcast, per NBC Sports Network:
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| 1 | Trojan Nation | 50-1 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | 20-1 |
| 3 | Creator | 10-1 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | 20-1 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | 10-1 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | 50-1 |
| 8 | Lani | 30-1 |
| 9 | Destin | 15-1 |
| 10 | Whitmore | 20-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | 8-1 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | 30-1 |
| 13 | Nyquist | 3-1 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | 10-1 |
| 15 | Outwork | 15-1 |
| 16 | Shagaf | 20-1 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | 12-1 |
| 18 | Majesto | 30-1 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | 12-1 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | 15-1 |
Predictions
Top Three Finishers: 1. Nyquist 2. Exaggerator 3. Mohaymen
The post drawings did no favors for the rest of the field—Nyquist is going to parlay that No. 13 position into a Kentucky Derby title.
Nyquist has done everything asked of him thus far in his career and comes to Churchill Downs with a perfect 7-0 record. He made a statement at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2015 as a two-year-old champion and then proved he can run a longer race with a victory at the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby.
The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles, so it is notable that Nyquist earned the win at the similar-distanced Florida Derby, especially since Mohaymen was also in the field.
Nyquist is the best horse at the Kentucky Derby, and the fact he is starting from near the middle means he doesn’t have to jump out to a quick start right out the gates. The inside rail isn’t really an early factor, and he won't be forced to overtake some other horses from the Nos. 19 or 20 spots.
That will allow Gutierrez to settle in just off the pace and make a late charge to win the garland of roses. The trio of owner J. Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill and Gutierrez already won the 2012 Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another, and they will do it again with a new horse on Saturday.
As for Mohaymen, it would be easy to get caught up in the fact he finished a distant fourth at the Florida Derby and ignore his chances at an impressive showing. Still, he was undefeated before that race and also received a solid post position at No. 14.
He won’t beat Nyquist, but he will prove the 5-0 start to his career was no fluke with a top-three finish.
Exaggerator will come in second place, which will mark the fourth time he's lost to Nyquist in head-to-head showdowns. Still, this is the horse that won the Santa Anita Derby by a head-turning 6 1/4 lengths in comeback fashion. The speed required to do that will help him earn a second-place finish on Saturday.
The Post Draw Will Help the Top Three Create Separation
With Nyquist at No. 13, Exaggerator at No. 11 and Mohaymen at No. 14, the three top racehorses should no longer be concerned about many of the pitfalls that so many fear when the posts are drawn.
O’Neill discussed how important it was to not be trapped near the inside rail, per Paul Rolfes of the Courier-Journal. “It’s a big factor for all of us. I think everyone would like to be outside of speed horses. It would be nice to be drawn outside of some of these horses that might show gate speed.”
Nyquist was drawn outside of Exaggerator and will be right next to Mohaymen. Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated suggested it was an ideal spot:
Rolfes also noted Churchill Downs uses an auxiliary starting gate for the Kentucky Derby because there are six more horses than the typical 14-slot gate accommodates. While Rolfes said four of the last five winners actually started in the auxiliary gate, these top horses don’t have to worry about starting too far on the outside.
It is a testament to the overall speed of some of the recent Derby winners that they won from the auxiliary gate (such as American Pharoah), but there is some historical precedent on the side of Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen.
According to Vance Hanson of Brisnet.com (via KentuckyDerby.com), there has only been one horse (Ferdinand in 1986) to win from the first gate since 1964. What’s more, nobody has won from the second gate since Triple Crown winner Affirmed did so in 1978.
Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen avoided being forced against the rail with those gates and also managed to steer clear of the seemingly cursed post No. 17. No horse has ever won from that post, which is unfortunate news for Mor Spirit and trainer Bob Baffert (who was also the trainer for American Pharoah).
Look for the eventual top-three finishers on Saturday to take advantage of the fact they are not starting from any of these unfavorable posts. They will all settle into the middle of the pack and then gradually pull away from the rest of the field down the home stretch.
Nyquist will just do it faster than the other two.
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