UNC Basketball: Projecting Tar Heels' 2016-17 Starting Lineup

After coming three points short of a national championship, the North Carolina Tar Heels will have to replace some key players in order to compete in 2016-17.

The team will be without Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige, who along with Joel James are set to graduate. While Kennedy Meeks has removed his name from the NBA draft, per C.L. Brown of ESPN.com, Justin Jackson is still undecided about his future and could choose to play professionally.

Unlike Meeks, Jackson has a legitimate chance of being taken in one of the two rounds and was invited to the combine, per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman. A strong performance could boost his stock, although he is ranked just the No. 62 prospect on DraftExpress and No. 72 by ESPN's Chad Ford.

It will be a difficult decision for the young player, but considering how much another year could help him, we will assume Jackson will be back playing for UNC next season. If this is the case, the Tar Heels will return a significant portion of last year's Final Four squad.

When you add this to a solid recruiting class ranked No. 10 in the country by 247Sports, this will once again be a top team in the ACC as well as the nation. A lot can change in the coming months, but here is a look at an early projection for the starting lineup in November.

PG: Joel Berry

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While most people spent most of the season waiting for Paige to gain some consistency, Joel Berry quietly became the go-to option from the perimeter.

Berry had an outstanding all-around sophomore year, finishing second on the team in scoring at 12.8 points per game. He also led the squad in assists (3.8 per game), steals (1.5 per game) and three-point shooting (38.2 percent).

The Tar Heels might be losing Paige, but Berry was legitimately the best guard on the roster last season.

While he was passive at times to begin the year, Berry only got better as he got more comfortable within the offense and became more aggressive with the ball. He reached double-digit points in 13 of the last 14 games, tallying eight points, 10 assists and just one turnover in the only game he fell short of this mark. He also had 20 points against Villanova in the title game.

The biggest concern moving forward might be defense, as UNC struggled all season defending the perimeter. He does have the quickness necessary to stop ball-handlers at this level; he just needs better focus and discipline.

If he can improve on that side of the ball, Berry has the potential to be one of the top point guards in the country.

SG: Theo Pinson

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Theo Pinson started alongside Berry in the backcourt in the first six games of the season before Paige returned from his wrist injury, and Pinson had only one more start the rest of the year. While he played well off the bench, he never reached the production that many were hoping to see.

Pinson was expected to take on the J.P. Tokoto role as a guard who filled up the stat sheet and played elite on-ball defense. While the defense was solid, he only averaged 4.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. The stats just didn't live up to his skill set.

On paper, Pinson should be a dynamic weapon with the athleticism, shooting ability and unselfishness to be a legitimate triple-double threat. When he is aggressive, he can take opponents off the dribble and attack the basket with ease, and he also showcases a nice stroke from the outside. His assist rate of 22.2 is impressive for his position and actually led the team, per KenPom.com.

The challenge is putting it all together on the court.

During his six-start beginning to the season, Pinson did average a solid 7.2 points, 5.3 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game. With a bigger opportunity and fewer upperclassmen around him, he could potentially turn into an ideal role player on an elite team.

The rising junior just has to turn his potential into production next season.

SF: Justin Jackson

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This is the X-factor for the entire season. If Justin Jackson returns to school and plays to his ability, North Carolina will again be a top team in college basketball. If not, it could be a long year.

Jackson has showcased his scoring talent since his freshman year when he averaged 10.7 points per game. He stepped that up to 12.2 points per game as a sophomore, but next year is when the biggest leap should occur. Until now, he has been surrounded by established scorers like Paige and Johnson, but this will be his chance to take over as a go-to option offensively.

The key for the small forward will be remembering what he does best, which is attacking the basket. He can shoot the ball better than most players his size at 6'8", but he gets into trouble when he settles for too many jumpers.

According to Hoop-Math.com, Jackson had a 73 percent field-goal percentage at the rim, which unfortunately only accounted for 50.8 percent of his shots. His shooting percentage dropped to 41.4 percent on two-point jumpers and 29.2 percent from beyond the arc. Obviously, it's easier to make shots when you are closer to the net, but the young player needs to take advantage of his strengths.

When Jackson wants to score, few players in the nation can guard him. With this mindset, the wing could become an All-ACC performer or better during his junior season.

PF: Isaiah Hicks

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Isaiah Hicks was so good at times last year that even ESPN's Jay Williams pleaded for the power forward to break into the starting lineup, via WCHL. Aside from a few games, though, he remained a star off the bench during a strong season all the way to the national championship game.

With Johnson no longer in the picture, though, Hicks will finally get his chance to shine as a versatile forward with an impressive skill set in the post.

Hicks finished last season averaging 8.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, which expanded to 40 minutes comes to 19.8 and 10.2. His efficiency was also noteworthy as he made 61.4 percent of his shots and earned an offensive rating of 127.3, per Sports-Reference.com. This was second on the team behind only Johnson (130.2), who was one of the best in the nation in this category.

While the rising senior isn't much of a shot-blocker, he actually might represent an upgrade defensively thanks to his lateral quickness and ability to defend the pick-and-roll. This was an area where both Johnson and Meeks struggled at times last season, which means Hicks can offer a nice boost.

Although he won't completely replace Johnson, there won't be as much of a drop-off as some might predict heading into next season.

C: Kennedy Meeks

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This past season was a relative disappointment for Kennedy Meeks, who saw a major drop in production almost across the board.

After averaging 11.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game as a sophomore, the center averaged just 9.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game as a junior. Some of this was due to the emergence of Johnson, which forced Meeks to take a back seat, but in other ways, the former McDonald's All-American took a step back in his development.

Meeks sometimes looked slow going after the ball and out of place on the court, leaving questions about his value to the team.

However, the 6'9", 265-pounder still has plenty of ability. He can be a dominant rebounder and a strong finisher in the post while providing a physicality that this team will desperately need next season. His on-ball defense to keep opponents out of the paint is also vital.

If he can continue getting into better shape while also staying healthy, Meeks will play an important role in the frontcourt.

Bench

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Nate Britt, Guard

While other players will move into more prominent roles, Nate Britt might be best maintaining his current job as a steady backup point guard off the bench.

Britt has averaged between 5.1 and 5.5 points per game in each of his three collegiate seasons, and while he is usually good for a few big performances per year, he isn't nearly consistent enough to be counted on as a go-to scoring option. Still, the team can rely on him as a ball-handler in key moments, and he will avoid bad mistakes. He proved that with just seven turnovers in nine postseason games this year.

Although he could potentially move into the starting lineup if Pinson doesn't live up to expectations, the lack of true upside should keep Britt as a useful player off the bench.

Seventh Woods, Guard

Although he might not be a polished player, Seventh Woods will get playing time early in his college career.

The highlight-reel guard has incredible athleticism that allows him to throw down ferocious dunks despite standing just 6'1". He can attack the basket and finish around the rim while also having the ability to knock down a jump shot and otherwise create for himself.

What Woods lacks is the all-around awareness necessary for him to get starter's minutes right away. Despite his size, he doesn't have point guard skills to distribute to others, and he also struggles while playing away from the ball. He also needs to work on his defense both within the team and on the ball.

The upside is huge for the South Carolina native. He can make an early impact off the bench, but it might not be much more than that in his first year.

Brandon Robinson, Guard

If Jackson decides to stay in the NBA draft, Brandon Robinson might be the player who steps into the starting lineup.

The incoming freshman has the size at 6'5" to play the wing with the length and athleticism to be an above-average defender at multiple positions. He also can knock down an outside shot, something that would otherwise be missing in this lineup.

Regardless of the rest of the roster, Robinson should get plenty of playing time in his first season with UNC. However, his playing time is likely tied to Jackson's presence on the team and Pinson's playing time early on.

Tony Bradley, Forward

With the departure of Johnson and James, North Carolina quickly goes from a team with too many big men to being relatively shallow up front. Luckily, Tony Bradley will be there to help from day one.

Bradley is the typical UNC power forward as a long, athletic big who can run the floor well and finish around the rim. The 6'10", 235-pounder also has a knack for blocking shots and has the motor to be a big-time rebounder at the next level.

Like Johnson, it will take time for Bradley to develop his back-to-the-basket game and the rest of his offensive arsenal, but he should be able to get points with his motor alone. He will play a lot—and not just due to a lack of alternative options.

Luke Maye, Forward

It was a rare disappointing freshman class for North Carolina last season as neither Luke Maye nor Kenny Williams made much of an impact. The duo combined for just 63 points all year and barely saw the floor down the stretch.

Williams does possess some value as a shooter, but with plenty of other options in the backcourt, he might not have much of a path for more playing time next year.

On the other hand, Maye should see the floor as a stretch 4 who rebounds well on both ends of the court. At the very least, he will improve upon his 1.2 points in 5.6 minutes per game as a freshman. 

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