Kentucky Derby 2016: Latest Vegas Odds and Predictions Before Post Postions Draw

The Kentucky Derby is known as the most exciting two minutes in sports, and that may be all the time horse racing needs to move out of American Pharoah’s shadow.

If the favored Nyquist puts on a show at Churchill Downs on Saturday, the chatter of a second consecutive year with a Triple Crown will pick up genuine steam. He already looks the part of a dominant racehorse and is a perfect 7-0 in his career leading up to the race that will put him in the national spotlight.

While Nyquist is the horse viewers will have their eyes on, there are a handful of difficult challengers who could rise up and win the race. With that in mind, here is a look at the latest odds for some of the top competitors in the field before Wednesday’s post draw, as well as a couple of predictions for the race.

The odds are what were listed on Odds Shark as of Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Horse	Odds
Nyquist	+333
Exaggerator	+800
Mohaymen	+800
Gun Runner	+1000
Brody's Cause	+1200
Destin	+1400
Mo Tom	+1600
Suddenbreakingnews	+1600
Mor Spirit	+1800
Outwork	+2000
Creator	+2000
Danzing Candy	+2500
Shagaf	+2500
My Man Sam	+2500

Predictions

Nyquist Takes the First Step Toward a Potential Triple Crown

Nyquist has never lost a race in his career, and that will not change on Saturday.

He has been on a path toward Kentucky Derby greatness since he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2015 as a two-year-old and then established himself as the favorite with an impressive win at the Florida Derby.

Despite the perfect record, Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports noted Nyquist hasn’t received as much national attention as many Kentucky Derby favorites do leading up to the race. While that could be from a hangover effect after American Pharoah’s Triple Crown, rival trainer Todd Pletcher had other ideas, per Forde: “Maybe Nyquist isn’t getting the respect he deserves because all he does is win.”

Pletcher trains Derby hopefuls Outwork and Destin, but they will both watch that winning streak continue on Saturday.

Nyquist doesn’t blow the rest of the field away with overwhelming speed. Rather, he has versatility to his approach and has proven in the first seven races of his career that he can win from behind or with a quick start. Thanks to his ability to either come from behind or hold off challengers, there is no one scenario (such as a quick start) that must play out on Saturday for Nyquist to win.

Nyquist also has a formidable team on his side that understands how to win under Kentucky Derby pressure. Owner J. Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez were all together during victories at the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with I’ll Have Another. Gutierrez has won on this stage before and will deliver on the back of the favored horse. 

Nyquist is the best horse in the field and will run accordingly on Saturday.

Exaggerator Finishes in Second Place, While Mohaymen Takes Third

Garry Jones/Associated Press

There is another reason outside of his own talent that Nyquist will win on Saturday. Forde referenced the Beyer speed figures, which are “a numerical formula used by the Daily Racing Form to quantify how well horses run on various tracks and in varying conditions,” and said “Nyquist’s competition isn’t much on paper.”

Forde said only Exaggerator, Destin and Danzing Candy have reached triple-digit speed figures among the competitors, and Nyquist should be able to gradually pull away from the field on the home stretch.

While they will not win the race, Exaggerator and Mohaymen will turn in impressive showings and take second and third place, respectively.

Exaggerator has lost to Nyquist three different times in head-to-head showdowns, but he also won the Santa Anita Derby and looked like a Kentucky Derby challenger in the process. He was missing the necessary closing speed during his races against Nyquist, but the potential he flashed at the Santa Anita Derby is what separates him from much of the rest of the field.

As for Mohaymen, it wasn’t that long ago that he was seen as the possible Kentucky Derby favorite. He started his career a perfect 5-0 but finished a distant fourth place against Nyquist in the Florida Derby.

It slowed down much of his momentum and raised legitimate doubts about his ability to compete against the top horse in the field. However, Mohaymen’s trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, pointed to a handful of factors that led to the loss, per Mike Farrell of the Associated Press, via USNews.com.

McLauglin said Mohaymen ran on a wet track and was shipped from a training center to Gulfstream Park on race day. Considering Mohaymen has only had one disappointing race in his career, there is reason to think those issues led to the outlier that is the Florida Derby showing.

While Mohaymen will once again fall short against Nyquist, a third-place finish will showcase the fact he is still one of the best racehorses in the sport in 2016.