Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Rotterdam, Netherlands, plays host to a big heavyweight showdown this weekend in MMA.
No. 5-ranked heavyweight Alistair Overeem (40-14, 1 NC) meets No. 8-ranked Andrei Arlovski (25-11, 1 NC) in the main event this Sunday, May 8 on UFC Fight Night 87.
Arlovski was on a six-fight win streak entering 2016, but his UFC 195 meeting with Stipe Miocic put that to a quick end. Now the Belorussian will attempt to knock-off his Jackson-Winkeljohn teammate in order to reestablish himself as a title contender.
Overeem is looking to make a statement that he is the next in line for a shot at the gold. After Junior dos Santos defeated Ben Rothwell in April, Overeem now has a clear-cut case with an emphatic victory against Arlovski. A win would make it four straight for the Dutch kickboxer.
So, who walks out of Rotterdam with their sights set on the UFC Heavyweight Championship?
Let's take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown for Overeem vs. Arlovski.
Striking
1 of 5
I don't think anyone will be surprised that the striking advantage goes to the former K-1 champion, Overeem.
His past successes are a bit overplayed in the grand scheme, but Overeem is still one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division. He has huge power in his hands and feet. The knockout of dos Santos showed just how vicious his striking remains.
That is not to say that Arlovski is completely outgunned. Both men have been known to be a bit chinny, and either man who connects flush is likely to walk away with a knockout win.
But Overeem is the more accomplished and skilled striker between the two. It's not very close.
Edge: Overeem
Grappling
2 of 5
I'm siding with Overeem in the grappling as well.
Neither man would be considered a top-tier offensive grappler. They are primarily strikers, but both do have solid takedown defense. Overeem gets the nod due to having a slight edge in the offensive department.
Arlovski hasn't completed an offensive takedown since his 2008 meeting against Ben Rothwell in Affliction. So, it's been a minute. Overeem, on the other hand, has shown some takedowns from time to time. I would not be at all shocked if Overeem dropped down for a single against the fence.
The majority of the grappling between the two will likely take place against the cage, and Overeem should dominate that position. He's bigger, stronger and utilizes his body better so that he can unleash knees from the clinch.
Overeem picks up the edge.
Edge: Overeem
Submissions
3 of 5
While Overeem is the better grappler, he isn't the better submission stylist.
He does have an oft forgotten guillotine that is very effective. Nine of his 19 career submission wins have come by way of guillotine.
Arlovski only has three career wins via submission. So with 16 more, why does Overeem not get the edge? Overeem's submissions are quite basic. He essentially has a guillotine, an armbar and an americana. Those can be great submissions, but they are the base level in the sport. Arlovski has a more varied arsenal.
Arlovski has a penchant for going for foot locks on the mat. It is not always the smartest of decisions, but it shows he has a bit more in his toolkit. Arlovski's work with jiu-jitsu and combat sambo give him more experience with submission arts than Overeem. He just doesn't employ them in the cage as often.
Overeem is completely capable of catching Arlovski with a guillotine, but the Belorussian simply has more attacks available to him.
Edge: Arlovski
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Aggression
Normally there would be an X-Factor for each participant, but in this fight, it comes down to aggression for both men.
Given their histories with getting clipped and both having heavy hands, it may come down to who is the more aggressive fighter or who gets over-aggressive.
In Overeem's case, he is riding a three-fight win streak and coming off a huge knockout win over JDS. That is going to give him a lot of confidence as he nears a title shot. The last time that was the case for Overeem, we saw him lose by KO in back-to-back fights where he was a bit more aggressive.
In recent outings, Overeem has been more methodical in his approach.
Arlovski is similar, but he gets drawn into more wild brawls than Overeem. His one-round slugfest with Travis Browne is a testament to that fact.
Getting over-aggressive will leave the window open for either opponent to get the one-shot KO, but they also cannot lay completely back and be passive. The way in which each fighter picks their spot to be aggressive will tell the tale of this fight.
Prediction
5 of 5
I was not too much a believer in Arlovski during his six-fight win streak prior to losing to Miocic at UFC 195. The 0:54 TKO by Miocic was more in line with where I thought Arlovski was in this division.
Expect more of the same this weekend.
Overeem is fighting smarter than ever before, and he will uncork a violent strike to leave Arlovski unconscious on the floor. It may be a right hand, it may be a left hand, or it may be a leg kick that sends Arlovski into a deep sleep.
Arlovski is overmatched on the feet, and he doesn't have the offensive wrestling to take Overeem to the canvas. It makes it a waiting game until Overeem turns out his lights.
As Overeem assesses the situation, the clock may roll past the one- or two-minute mark. Just don't expect it to get to the second round.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem defeats Andrei Arlovski by KO in the first round.
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