Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Examining Lines, Payouts for Field at Churchill Downs

On the heels of American Pharoah ending a 37-year drought in 2015 by becoming the 12th horse to win the Triple Crown, excitement is mounting for the 2016 Kentucky Derby as one horse will begin its quest to turn in a repeat performance.

The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby has a deep and talented field that could potentially produce a surprise winner, but there are undoubtedly a few horses that stand out above the rest with the Run for the Roses on the horizon.

Here is a rundown of all the contenders in the field and their current odds to win, courtesy of Odds Shark, as well as a closer look at some of the top horses to watch at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	Trojan Nation	Aaron Gryder	66-1
2	Suddenbreakingnews	Luis Quinonez	20-1
3	Creator	Ricardo Santana Jr.	12-1
4	Mo Tom	Corey Lanerie	22-1
5	Gun Runner	Florent Geroux	9-1
6	My Man Sam	Irad Ortiz Jr.	20-1
7	Oscar Nominated	Julien Leparoux	66-1
8	Lani	Yutaka Take	28-1
9	Destin	Javier Castellano	14-1
10	Whitmore	Victor Espinoza	18-1
11	Exaggerator	Kent Desormeaux	15-2
12	Tom's Ready	Brian Hernandez Jr.	40-1
13	Nyquist	Mario Gutierrez	3-1
14	Mohaymen	Junior Alvarado	8-1
15	Outwork	John Velazquez	16-1
16	Shagaf	Joel Rosario	28-1
17	Mor Spirit	Gary Stevens	14-1
18	Majesto	Emisael Jaramillo	33-1
19	Brody's Cause	Luis Saez	14-1
20	Danzing Candy	Mike E. Smith	20-1

Top Horses to Watch

Nyquist

While there aren't often guarantees in horse racing, Nyquist undoubtedly looks the part of a Kentucky Derby favorite, and the rest of the field may need him to turn in a poor performance in order to have a realistic shot Saturday.

The dominant colt enters the Derby undefeated in seven races, including victories in the Florida Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Thanks to Nyquist's impressive form, trainer Doug O'Neill seems confident in his chances of crossing the finish line first, as seen in this video courtesy of TVG:

Despite that confidence, O'Neill is aware Nyquist may have some vulnerabilities that could cause him to fall short.

Per John Cherwa of the Los Angeles Times (via the Baltimore Sun), the trainer said Nyquist is at his best when he can clearly see the competition he is going up against: "If he engages you, he's going to be tough to beat. The one thing I think could beat Nyquist is if he's on a lead and someone [he can't see] is flying five wide outside."

Nobody has managed to make a late run and pass Nyquist at this point, but the level of competition at Churchill Downs will undoubtedly be the highest he has faced thus far.

It is fair to say that Nyquist is the horse to beat until another horse proves it can beat him, and provided he gets a good trip out of the gates and doesn't get caught up in traffic, it seems likely the Derby will come down to whether another horse has enough gas left in the tank to track him down.

Mohaymen

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Mohaymen proved to be mortal with a disappointing fourth-place finish at the Florida Derby in his last race, but the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt still enters the Kentucky Derby as one of the top contenders.

Prior to his slip-up in the Florida Derby, Mohaymen was a perfect 5-0 with triumphs in the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull Stakes. He could not compete with Nyquist in Florida, though, which gives ample reason for skepticism regarding whether he can do so at Churchill Downs.

While McLaughlin acknowledged that Mohaymen's Florida Derby showing was a letdown, he believed several circumstances worked against his horse during the race, according to David Grening of Daily Racing Form:

"

No. 1, I think we were on the worst part of the track. No. 2, we traveled 54 feet farther [than Nyquist] on the worst part of the track. No one was going to win from out there. ... At first, obviously I was very disappointed with the results because, you hate to say it, I didn't think he would ever lose, really. I didn't. Five for five and you just feel like you're not going to lose.

"

Mohaymen enters the Kentucky Derby not as an afterthought per se, but very much in the shadow of Nyquist—just like the rest of the field.

His talent is undeniable, though, and as pointed out by Steve Haskin of BloodHorse.com following a workout, he seems to have a great deal of stamina:

That stamina should serve him well Saturday since he will need plenty of reserves in order to be strong down the stretch and conceivably close the gap on Nyquist.  

The Florida Derby represented a nightmarish trip for Mohaymen, but if he can get to a more advantageous spot on the track during the Run for the Roses, redemption may be in order.

Gun Runner

Garry Jones/Associated Press

There is no question that Nyquist enters the Kentucky Derby with more momentum on his side than any other horse, but Gun Runner isn't far behind in that regard.

The three-year-old colt has four wins in five races, and his most recent outing was an impressive victory in the prestigious Louisiana Derby. He has bounced back with consecutive wins since a disappointing fourth-place finish in November, and he may have a better chance than any other horse to knock off Nyquist.

Penelope P. Miller of America's Best Racing is among the believers, as she has been impressed with Gun Runner leading up to the Run for the Roses:

Trainer Steve Asmussen is also thrilled with his horse coming off the Louisiana Derby triumph, but he is well-aware Gun Runner must run his best race Saturday in order to knock off Nyquist, per Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal: "I've just been, obviously, very happy with the trajectory that he's shown to this point. Saying that, I also know we need to be better. But we're in the process of it. The Louisiana Derby was a nice step in the right direction, and we're expecting another one."

Confidence can be an important factor in horse racing, and Gun Runner along with the team around him may have more of it than any horse not named Nyquist.

He has proved he can get the job done on the big stage, and although doing so at Churchill Downs against arguably the premier three-year-old in the world won't be easy, Gun Runner may have the tools needed to pull off the upset.

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