The Big 12's Most Indispensable Players for the 2016-17 CBB Season
Jordan Woodard might not be the best player in the Big 12, but Oklahoma's point guard will be more indispensable to his school in 2016-17 than any other player in this conference.
There's a fine line between being valuable and being indispensable, and it's important not to confuse the two. These are not necessarily the 10 players we would nominate for preseason All-Big 12 honors but rather the ones their respective rosters could least afford to lose.
Ranking these 10 players boiled down to a matter of picturing what each team would look like if that player were suddenly no longer on the roster.
For example, Iowa State's Monte Morris is decidedly more valuable than new teammate Merrill Holden, but the Cyclones' roster is more equipped to replace Morris than Holden. Thus, the latter ranks No. 2 on our list while the former merely appears as an honorable mention.
In a nutshell, we're looking for wins above replacement. Sometimes a player is so good that he's indispensable regardless of the options off the bench. For the most part, though, these are above-average players on rosters that simply don't have the reserves to replace them.
Honorable Mentions
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Monte Morris, Iowa State
One of the top way-too-early candidates for Big 12 Player of the Year, Monte Morris is arguably the best point guard in the entire country. At any rate, he'll be looking to earn that title by continuing to succeed at Iowa State without the likes of Georges Niang, Jameel McKay and Abdel Nader.
However, the Cyclones have guards for days. Naz Mitrou-Long was granted another year of eligibility. Deonte Burton is coming back to school after testing the NBA draft waters. Darrell Bowie is an incoming graduate transfer. Donovan Jackson is an incoming JUCO transfer. Nick Babb was a transfer from Arkansas who sat out last season. They still have Matt Thomas, too.
As we'll get into later in the list, Iowa State's frontcourt situation is quite dire. But if any team could survive losing an outstanding guard, it's this one.
Jevon Carter, West Virginia
Though we did find room for a frontcourt Mountaineer at No. 10 on our list, it has been hard to argue that any backcourt player is indispensable in Bob Huggins' Press Virginia system. Jevon Carter should be the MVP of the team, but WVU seemed to get even better after losing former MVP Juwan Staten. If Carter disappeared, Huggins would figure something out.
Khadeem Lattin, Oklahoma
Between Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Ryan Spangler, the Sooners have a lot of holes to fill. Khadeem Lattin was little more than a defensive specialist last year, but look for him to step up on offense in a big way to potentially be a 12.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 2.0 BPG type of guy.
But the Sooners do still have centers Akolda Manyang and Jamuni McNeace available off the bench, as well as an incoming forward by the name of Kristian Doolittle. They'd rather not have to try to win games without Lattin, but they could.
Jawun Evans and Phil Forte, Oklahoma State
The Cowboys comfortably won their first three games of the season with both guards in the lineup, went 8-10 after losing Phil Forte and went 1-10 after Jawun Evans joined him on the bench. Having them both back and healthy will be crucial.
But like Iowa State, there are plenty of backup options in the backcourt. Tyree Griffin, Tavarius Shine, Joe Burton and incoming freshman Lindy Waters could all step in if either one of the presumed starters goes down.
Kansas' Entire Starting 5
Kansas should absolutely dominate the Big 12 this season. We're talking "earns a share of first place by the third week of February" levels of dominance. But in addition to seemingly every team in the conference (except for TCU) taking a step backward this season, the biggest reason for that assumption is the depth of talent the Jayhawks have.
Josh Jackson is a stone-cold stud, but if he vanishes they still have Frank Mason, Devonte' Graham, Svi Mykhailiuk and even Lagerald Vick to fill in for him. It's pretty similar in the frontcourt, where Carlton Bragg and Landen Lucas should be solid, but they have Ole Miss transfer Dwight Coleby and 4-star freshmen Udoka Azubuike and Mitch Lightfoot available if anything were to happen to either of them.
10. Elijah Macon, West Virginia
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2015-16 Stats: 4.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG
Since embracing the full-court press two years ago, the individuals haven't mattered at West Virginia, so long as they're able to buy into the system. Some players have put up big numbers—most notably Juwan Staten, Devin Williams and Jaysean Paige—but the whole has been greater than the sum of its parts, winning 51 games without producing a single draft pick (foolishly assuming mock drafts are correct about this year's crop).
And yet, with Williams and Jonathan Holton both leaving and just a couple of 3-star power forwards incoming, the Mountaineers will desperately need a big year from one individual: Elijah Macon.
They have four returning players taller than 6'3" who scored at least a single point last season: 6'8" Esa Ahmad, 6'9" Brandon Watkins, 6'9" Nathan Adrian and 6'9" Macon.
Ahmad had a strong freshman season, leading the team in blocked shots, albeit with just 19 of them. He might be the spring favorite to start at center, but he averaged only 5.9 rebounds per 40.0 minutes—compared to 14.9 by Williams and 13.1 by Holton. And with offensive rebounding such a pivotal part of what West Virginia does, that might not cut it.
Watkins didn't play much and committed fouls like a madman when he did. Moreover, he shot 33.3 percent from the field and from the free-throw line. Barring one heck of an unforeseeable senior year breakout, don't expect much from him.
Adrian will likely start at power forward, but he's more of a stretch 4 than a conventional big man, converting on 40.7 percent of his three-point attempts last season.
Then there's Macon. He didn't play a ton last season, but he put up 13.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steals per 40.0 minutes. Among returning players, he was the team leader in rebounding percentage and should be the go-to Mountaineer in the post in 2016-17—if only because there aren't any better options.
9. Wesley Iwundu, Kansas State
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2015-16 Stats: 11.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
On the one hand, Wesley Iwundu might be the most do-it-all player in the conference. He led the Wildcats in minutes and assists last season while ranking second in points and steals—and the leader in both of those categories was the now-departed Justin Edwards. If Iwundu vanished, it would take too many players to replace everything that he does.
On the other hand, Kansas State might finish in last place in the Big 12 even with Iwundu.
With Edwards and Stephen Hurt both graduating, the Wildcats lose a great scorer, a plus rebounder and two of their best defenders. In their place, Kansas State merely adds a trio of 3-star freshmen. As a result, the projected primary seven-man rotation is just last year's nine-man rotation sans two key pieces.
For a team that was already just 5-13 in the conference, that's not a good direction to be going.
Look for Iwundu to put up big numbers as a more assertive scorer than he has been over the past three years, but don't be surprised if the Wildcats sputter to a .500 overall record anyway. Just know they'd be lucky to win a single conference game without him.
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8. Chauncey Collins, TCU
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2015-16 Stats: 12.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 39.5 3P%
I'm all aboard the "TCU breakout season" bandwagon, but only if Chauncey Collins has an even bigger year than his last.
The Horned Frogs return all eight of their leaders in minutes played while adding 4-star freshman Jaylen Fisher, Texas A&M transfer Alex Robinson (for the second semester) and Kenrich Williams, who averaged 8.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in 2014-15 before missing this past season due to microfracture knee surgery.
Aside from Kansas, the Horned Frogs are arguably the deepest team in the Big 12. (Kindly don't misread that as "second-best team in the Big 12," but they might be closer to second-best than dead last for a change.)
But as far as shooting guards go, Collins is just about all they have. He led the team in points, three-pointers, free-throw attempts and free-throw percentage last season, and he only got better as the season progressed. He averaged 14.8 points over his final 13 games while shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.
If that Collins shows up for an entire season, TCU could realistically go dancing for the first time since 1998.
7. Andrew Jones, Texas
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
All of a sudden, Shaka Smart is the proud owner of a rebuilding situation.
Texas played a total of 33 games last season. Multiply that number by five and you get 165 possible games started. The players responsible for 148 of those starts are no longer with the program. Five of those (Javan Felix, Connor Lammert, Cameron Ridley, Prince Ibeh and Demarcus Holland) are due to graduation while one (Isaiah Taylor) chose to declare for the NBA draft and sign with an agent.
As a result, the list of returning Longhorns is shorter than the list of departed ones.
They do have some quality guards, at least. Kerwin Roach, Eric Davis and Tevin Mack performed admirably as freshmen—particularly given the constraints of playing third through fifth fiddle to Taylor and Felix in the backcourt.
But those three players and Kendal Yancy are all shooting guards, opening the door for combo guard Andrew Jones to come in and immediately shine as the primary point guard.
Three years ago, Taylor arrived and averaged 12.7 points and 4.0 assists per game as a freshman. Expect no less from Jones, but expect another freshman Longhorn to be even more important to their cause.
6. James Banks, Texas
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
Andrew Jones should be the star of Texas' backcourt, but there are plenty of other options if he falters.
Conversely, what the heck are the Longhorns going to do if James Banks is a bust?
With Connor Lammert, Prince Ibeh and Cameron Ridley all graduating, 6'4" shooting guard Kerwin Roach recorded more rebounds last season than any other returning Longhorn. They do still have former Maryland transfer Shaquille Cleare, but he's the only returning frontcourt player and he's no one-man army.
Granted, there is one gigantic unknown still in play: Jarrett Allen. The 5-star power forward from Austin, Texas, has yet to decide where he will be playing in November. Most seem to believe that Texas is the (hometown) favorite to acquire his services, but Houston and Kansas remain in the running, too.
For the time being, we cannot safely assume that Allen will be wearing burnt orange next season, and thus are forced to assume that Banks is all they've got.
To be fair, though, Shaka Smart is no stranger to small lineups. In conjunction with the chance at landing a McDonald's All-American big man, that kept us from putting Banks in our top five, despite a frontcourt situation that currently looks quite dire.
During his run to the 2011 Final Four with VCU, Smart frequently deployed a four-guard lineup with 6'5" Bradford Burgess as his de facto power forward. Subsequent seasons weren't any different, as Juvonte Reddic served as Smart's only true frontcourt presence to log a ton of playing time. So there's a chance he'll roll with 6'6" Mack at the 4 while riding the hot hand between Cleare and Banks at the 5.
Still, we should see a ton of Banks this season in a conference that frankly doesn't have many quality big men.
Seriously, who's the best power forward or center in the Big 12 after Johnathan Motley, Carlton Bragg and Landen Lucas? Kansas State's Dean Wade? Oklahoma's Khadeem Lattin? If Texas doesn't get Allen, Banks could feasibly be an All-Big 12 second-team player as a freshman just by avoiding injury.
5. Johnathan Motley, Baylor
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2015-16 Stats: 11.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 0.9 APG
There's a compelling case to be made for Johnathan Motley at No. 1 on this list. With the possible exception of Kansas' starting frontcourt, Motley enters the season as the best frontcourt weapon in the entire Big 12. And with Taurean Prince, Rico Gathers and Lester Medford out of the picture, the Bears should lean much more heavily on Motley than they did this past season.
But Baylor still has a ton of options for points.
On the list of returning players, there's Terry Maston, Al Freeman, Ish Wainright, King McClure and Jake Lindsey, each of which posted strong numbers last season. There's also Miami transfer Manu Lecomte, 4-star freshmen Tyson Jolly and Mark Vital, JUCO transfer Nuni Omot and the hope that Jo Acuil will be able to make his D-I debut.
It's the last three names on that list that pose the biggest threat to Motley's indispensability, especially Acuil. The former JUCO transfer averaged 20.1 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game during the 2014-15 season with Neosho County. If he comes in next year and starts doing his best Isaiah Austin impression, the Bears could reasonably tread water and slip into the NCAA tournament with Maston at power forward and Acuil at center.
That said, we're expecting Motley to have a monster junior season en route to first-team All-Big 12 honors.
4. Mitchell Solomon, Oklahoma State
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2015-16 Stats: 3.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG
Here's why some people think Oklahoma State could finish dead last in the Big 12 next season.
As we noted on the honorable mentions, the Cowboys have an ample supply of wings. Jawun Evans, Phil Forte, Jeffrey Carroll and Leyton Hammonds will likely start with Tyree Griffin, Tavarius Shine, Joe Burton and freshman Lindy Waters contributing off the bench.
But not one of those players is taller than 6'7" and both of last year's primary shot-blockers (Chris Olivier and Anthony Allen) graduated. And of the four players they've signed in this year's recruiting class, Cameron McGriff is the tallest at 6'6".
That leaves Mitchell Solomon and scarcely used former JUCO transfer Igor Ibaka as the only big men on the roster.
Though he has done little to this point in his collegiate career, Solomon was a 6'9" 4-star recruit in the class of 2014. Now he's 7'0" and could have the type of "out of necessity" breakout year that Marshall Plumlee just had for Duke. If Solomon can cut down on his foul rate (7.7 per 40.0 minutes through two seasons), he'll likely be called upon to play close to 32.0 minutes per game for a team that really doesn't have any other option.
3. Keenan Evans, Texas Tech
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2015-16 Stats: 8.7 PPG, 2.9 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.0 SPG
Chris Beard will inherit a solid frontcourt in his first season at Texas Tech. As things currently stand, the Red Raiders will have Aaron Ross, Zach Smith, Norense Odiase and Justin Gray as returning forwards who each averaged at least 8.5 points per game last year.
The backcourt is another story.
With Devaugntah Williams and Toddrick Gotcher both graduating, Texas Tech loses both of its leading scorers. The good news is the Red Raiders have signed NJCAA first-team All-American Niem Stevenson and All-American honorable mention Shadell Millinghaus to replace them. But they're both shooting guards who did minimal passing last season, so Texas Tech still needs a floor general to tie everything together.
That's where Keenan Evans comes into play.
Though he averaged only 2.9 per game, Evans led the Red Raiders in assists last season while starting all 32 games. He wasn't quite as pivotal to their success as Gotcher, Ross or Smith, but he was a big cog in the rotation in their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2007.
Moreover, Plan B behind Evans isn't pretty. The only other returning guards on the roster are Devon Thomas, Jordan Jackson and C.J. Williamson. According to KenPom.com, they posted 2015-16 O-ratings of 89.0, 74.4 and 70.1, respectively.
Thus, it's Evans or bust at point guard if Texas Tech is going to dance for a second straight year.
2. Merrill Holden, Iowa State
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2015-16 Stats: 8.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Less than a week ago, Merrill Holden was a graduate transfer with no school to call home.
But now the former Louisiana Tech power forward is arguably the most crucial piece of Iowa State's 2016-17 puzzle.
As was the case for Mitchell Solomon and Oklahoma State earlier on the list, Holden is just about the only frontcourt option for the Cyclones. They do have a couple of big men who barely touched the court—Simeon Carter and Stuart Nezlek played a combined 49 minutes in 2015-16—but there is not a single returning player on this roster taller than 6'4" who scored more than 10 points last year.
Meanwhile, Holden averaged 13.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 40.0 minutes over his last two seasons with the Bulldogs.
The only reason he's not No. 1 on our list is because there is another incoming player who could also make a big impact in the frontcourt. Northern Illinois transfer Darrell Bowie stands just 6'7", but he could conceivably be Iowa State's starting center after averaging 13.8 points and 8.7 rebounds per 40.0 minutes in three seasons with the Huskies.
But with ESPN's Fran Fraschilla breaking the news on Wednesday morning that prized JUCO transfer Emmanuel Malou will enter the NBA draft rather than playing a season or two at Ames, the Cyclones will need both Holden and Bowie in a big way.
1. Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
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2015-16 Stats: 13.0 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 45.5 3P%
There might not be a more indispensable player in the entire country than Jordan Woodard.
The Sooners had a fantastic 2015-16 season. Most of the national attention was understandably focused on Buddy Hield, but Woodard had a darn fine season, too, ranking second on the team in points and win shares while shooting lights out from three-point range.
Woodard was to Hield what Ryan Boatright was to Shabazz Napier during Connecticut's 2014 title run. The only major difference is Connecticut beat Villanova by a dozen points in the 2014 tourney and Oklahoma lost to the Wildcats by a 44-point margin in the 2016 Final Four.
And as was the case for Boatright, it's more than just the team leader that Woodard is losing. After watching Napier, DeAndre Daniels, Niels Giffey and Lasan Kromah all leave, Boatright had little choice but to assume the role of "the guy." He averaged 17.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists as a senior after posting junior-year numbers nearly identical to Woodard's (12.1 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.5 RPG and 1.6 SPG).
Shouldn't we expect Woodard to make a similar leap with Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Ryan Spangler and even Dinjiyl Walker all gone?
There are still some options in this Sooners backcourt—Christian James shot 50 percent from three-point range in limited minutes as a freshman, Rashard Odomes was a serviceable asset off the bench and 4-star shooting guard Kameron McGusty will likely be a starter from day one—but there's no question who should lead the team in minutes, points, assists and steals.
With a healthy and productive season from Woodard, Oklahoma remains nationally relevant as a potential Top 25 team. Without Woodard, the Sooners would be lucky to finish in seventh place in the Big 12.
Recruiting data courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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