2016 NFL Draft: Predicting Every Team's Best Value Selection
The NFL draft is no rotisserie fantasy, but the concepts of minimizing risk and maximizing value still ring plenty true every April when all 32 teams come together to reload their rosters with the nation's top young talent.
From running through every potential first-round scenario possible to digging for information from front offices across the league, every NFL decision-maker is trying to figure out who to target and how long they think they can wait before grabbing their guy.
Every year, there are a handful of picks that make fans and media folks shake their heads in quizzical astonishment, while other names immediately jump out as potential steals. It's not always obvious this early on, but let's take a look at which pick will end up being the best value selection for each team from this year's draft.
Arizona Cardinals
1 of 32
Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi (1st Round, 29th overall)
Once considered a potential top-five pick, off-field concerns caused Robert Nkemdiche to tumble down the draft board and nearly out of the first round completely. Without too many pressing needs, the Cardinals snatched up one of the most talented prospects in the entire draft.
With a rare combination of strength and athleticism, Nkemdiche is a disruptive defender who can wreak havoc on opposing offenses from multiple alignments. If he can avoid any mistakes off the field, he could easily end up being one of the biggest steals to come out of this class.
Runner-Up: Harlan Miller, CB, Southeastern Louisiana (6th Round, 205th overall)
Atlanta Falcons
2 of 32
De'Vondre Campbell, LB, Minnesota (4th Round, 115th overall)
Speed and athleticism on defense was the theme for much of Atlanta's draft, and De'Vondre Campbell is the perfect example of that plan. At 6'4", 232 pounds, Campbell ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the combine—one of the fastest times of any linebacker in attendance.
He's likely to make his early money on special teams, but it shouldn't take long for Campbell to earn significant playing time on defense. He's got the skill set to stay on the field on all three downs, and he should thrive in head coach Dan Quinn's scheme.
Runner-Up: Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA (7th Round, 238th overall)
Baltimore Ravens
3 of 32
Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech (4th Round, 134th overall)
Why do so many NFL teams pass on drafting a running back in the first round? Because there seems to be an annual bargain-fest in the middle rounds at the position, and Baltimore grabbing Kenneth Dixon on Day 3 is one of this year's crowning examples.
While he lacks the flashy big-play ability of Ezekiel Elliott or the punishing physicality of Derrick Henry—the first two backs to come off the board this year—Dixon is one of the most complete backs in 2016's class. He can impact the game in every facet and on all three downs, and he could challenge for plenty of touches early on despite the presence of Justin Forsett and Buck Allen.
Runner-Up: Willie Henry, DL, Michigan (4th Round, 132nd overall)
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Buffalo Bills
4 of 32
Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas (5th Round, 156th overall)
Get used to the running back theme here.
Most predraft projections favored Arkansas Razorbacks runner Alex Collins, but it was his running mate who ended up coming off the board first. Despite a foot injury that cost him the entire 2015 season, Jonathan Williams evidently still did enough to convince the Bills he was worthy of a mid-round selection.
Williams rushed for 1,190 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014, sporting a balanced running style with just enough quickness and patience to be effective between the tackles and the burst to get to the edge and gash defenses with big gains. If he can stay healthy at the next level, he could make a deep cut into the workload currently shared by LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams.
Runner-Up: Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State (4th Round, 139th overall)
Carolina Panthers
5 of 32
Zack Sanchez, CB, Oklahoma (5th Round, 141st overall)
After letting Josh Norman walk, the Panthers spent three of their five picks in this year's draft on cornerbacks. Zack Sanchez is the best balance of polish, experience and upside, and despite not hearing his name called until the fifth round, he could easily make an instant impact.
Sanchez has some areas where he could improve—taking fewer chances, gaining more bulk—but he's an instinctive cover man who isn't afraid to get his hands dirty at the line of scrimmage or against the run. If lined up in the slot in nickel packages, he could frustrate opposing offenses in many different ways as a rookie.
Runner-Up: Beau Sandland, TE, Montana State (7th Round, 252nd overall)
Chicago Bears
6 of 32
Jonathan Bullard, DL, Florida (3rd Round, 72nd overall)
General manager Ryan Pace made it difficult to choose between quite a few of his picks, but Jonathan Bullard takes the top spot. With the ridiculous depth of this year's crop of interior defensive linemen, it was expected that a few talented prospects could fall through the cracks, and the Bears certainly took advantage by grabbing a versatile disruptor like Bullard this late.
With the ability to line up in multiple spots along the defensive fronts, Bullard's presence should allow the Bears to be flexible on defense and give opposing offenses different looks. He plays with a nasty mean streak and is explosive off the ball, which will add yet another quality, young building block to Chicago's promising defense.
Runner-Up: Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana (5th Round, 150th overall)
Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 32
Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor (4th Round, 122nd overall)
One of the biggest surprises of the entire draft weekend, Andrew Billings was projected by some to be a first-round pick. His fall to Day 3 was shocking to fans and media alike, but it may be for the Bengals' gain after they finally snatched him up.
Billings needs plenty of refinement when it comes to his ability to find the ball and maximize his skill set, but he's a powerful, explosive defender who could be a dominant force with the right coaching. In a draft class incredibly deep at defensive tackle, Billings could easily end up as the best value of the entire group.
Runner-Up: Christian Westerman, G, Arizona State (5th Round, 161st overall)
Cleveland Browns
8 of 32
Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State (5th Round, 172nd overall)
After the Browns failed to address their need for receivers in recent drafts, the new sheriffs in Berea decided there's strength in numbers, and they spent four draft picks on pass-catchers this year. Though first-rounder Corey Coleman will get most of the hype, it's Rashard Higgins who could end up giving Cleveland the most bang for its buck.
His measurables won't jump off the page, but Higgins' production certainly does. His 2014 season was the most impressive, as he logged 96 catches for 1,750 yards and averaged nearly 35 yards on each of his 17 touchdown receptions. There might be a logjam on the depth chart at receiver this year, but Higgins does the little things that will set him apart.
Runner-Up: Scooby Wright III, LB, Arizona (7th Round, 250th overall)
Dallas Cowboys
9 of 32
Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma (4th Round, 101st overall)
People expected Dallas to target a defensive end early in the draft, but the Cowboys' patience paid off when they were able to grab Charles Tapper on Day 3. After making a pair of luxury picks in the first two rounds with running back Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Jaylon Smith, Tapper was the perfect balance of need and value at this pick.
While some might consider him too much of a tweener to make an impact at the next level, Tapper's combination of athleticism, playing style and production tells a different story. At 6'3", 271 pounds, Tapper turned heads with a 4.59-second 40-yard dash at the combine after posting 10 tackles for loss and seven sacks as a senior.
The depth chart at defensive end is a mess for Dallas right now, which should give Tapper every opportunity to make his mark early on.
Runner-Up: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State (4th Round, 135th overall)
Denver Broncos
10 of 32
Devontae Booker, RB, Utah (4th Round, 136th overall)
The trade up for quarterback Paxton Lynch stole the headlines, but getting Devontae Booker on Day 3 might turn out to be the most productive move the Broncos made across the entire draft. He's not the fastest or most physical runner in this year's class, but Booker is a balanced back who can run outside or between the tackles, pick up blitzers effectively and catch the ball out of the backfield.
Even with C.J. Anderson returning, fans shouldn't be shocked if the rookie steals significant playing time from him, if not supplanting him completely as the starter. If he shows no ill effects of the knee injury that cost him a sizable chunk of the 2015 season, Booker could be one of the best values of the entire draft.
Runner-Up: Connor McGovern, G, Missouri (5th Round, 144th overall)
Detroit Lions
11 of 32
A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama (2nd Round, 46th overall)
Two of Detroit's biggest needs were at offensive tackle and defensive tackle, and while the Lions bagged their new blindside protector in the first round—Ohio State's Taylor Decker—it was A'Shawn Robinson who ended up being the steal on Day 2.
The anchor in the middle of one of college football's most dominant defenses, Robinson did the dirty work that helped lead the Crimson Tide to yet another national title. His blue-collar mentality will suit his new NFL city well, and his ability to disrupt the run game and collapse the pocket from the inside will be a huge addition to the Lions' defensive front.
Runner-Up: Miles Killebrew, S/LB, Southern Utah (4th Round, 111th overall)
Green Bay Packers
12 of 32
Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State (3rd Round, 88th overall)
This year's draft class was short on dynamic edge-rushing talent, but the Packers grabbed one of the best values at the position, getting Kyler Fackrell in the latter stages of Day 2.
Fackrell has the tailor-made frame—6'5", 245 pounds—length and skill set to excel as a 3-4 outside linebacker, with the ability to bend the edge and get after the passer. He can also survive in coverage when needed, but he'll make his money taking down opposing quarterbacks. Clay Matthews needed some help in this department, and the Packers got him a running mate at a bargain.
Runner-Up: Kyle Murphy, OT, Stanford (6th Round, 200th overall)
Houston Texans
13 of 32
K.J. Dillon, S, West Virginia (5th Round, 159th overall)
Fellow Mountaineer safety Karl Joseph came off the board midway through the first round, but K.J. Dillon isn't far behind his teammate as a prospect, which makes him a potential steal as a fifth-round selection.
His struggles in coverage and tackling are all technique-related, which means he should be able to overcome them at the next level with proper coaching. He's got the physical tools and athleticism to develop into a starter in the NFL, and it wouldn't be surprising if he makes a significant impact as a rookie in 2016.
Runner-Up: D.J. Reader, DT, Clemson (5th Round, 166th overall)
Indianapolis Colts
14 of 32
Hassan Ridgeway, DL, Texas (4th Round, 116th overall)
Another talented member of a deep defensive tackle class, Hassan Ridgeway fell through the cracks all the way to Day 3, much to the delight of Colts general manager Ryan Grigson and his team.
At 6'3", 303 pounds, Ridgeway's size and skill set should be a perfect fit as a 5-technique in the Colts' 3-4 scheme. He's a balanced defender who uses an impressive combination of power and quickness to collapse the pocket from the interior and blow up running plays in the backfield before they get started. Much like Henry Anderson last year, Ridgeway could be the mid-round rookie who makes a big statement.
Runner-Up: Austin Blythe, C, Iowa (7th Round, 248th overall)
Jacksonville Jaguars
15 of 32
Myles Jack, LB, UCLA (2nd Round, 36th overall)
This is the easiest pick of the whole lot. Widely considered one of the top overall players in the entire draft, Myles Jack tumbled down and out of the first round completely due to concerns about the long-term health of his knee.
While Jack obviously would have preferred coming off the board much earlier, the Jags have to be rejoicing—they added him to one of the most exciting young rosters in the NFL. His rare combination of athleticism and instincts will allow him to become an instant playmaker for Jacksonville, and if he's able to avoid any major hiccups with the knee, he'll likely be the one player each team kicks itself for letting slip.
Runner-Up: Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame (4th Round, 103rd overall)
Kansas City Chiefs
16 of 32
D.J. White, CB, Georgia Tech (6th Round, 178th overall)
Some might be quick to relegate D.J. White to nothing more than a cursory role as a special teamer, but White is big enough, fast enough and skilled enough to develop into a starter down the road.
At 5'11", 193 pounds, White ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at the combine. He can be physical at the line of scrimmage despite his lack of ideal size, and he's not afraid to match up against bigger receivers. Don't be surprised if White challenges for playing time in nickel packages early on.
Runner-Up: Chris Jones, DL, Mississippi State (2nd Round, 37th overall)
Los Angeles Rams
17 of 32
Mike Thomas, WR, Southern Mississippi (6th Round, 206th overall)
Arguably the most underrated receiver in the entire draft, Mike Thomas flew under the radar despite fantastic production in 2015—he was even left off the combine invite list. He averaged 19.6 yards per catch last season, which was the highest mark of any FBS receiver with at least 65 receptions, and he proved to be a legitimate big-play threat for the Golden Eagles.
He came off the board four rounds later than his Ohio State namesake, but this Mike Thomas is one pass-catcher to keep an eye on moving forward. At 6'1", 200 pounds, he's got the size and speed to be effective at the next level if he can cut down on his drops. If he's given a shot, Thomas could be a godsend for rookie quarterback Jared Goff.
Runner-Up: Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina (4th Round, 117th overall)
Miami Dolphins
18 of 32
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi (1st Round, 13th overall)
Just a couple of months prior, Laremy Tunsil was expected to be the top overall pick when the Titans still held that selection. But after a crazy social media post had the NFL world in a tizzy, Tunsil ended up falling out of the top 10 and into the waiting arms of the Dolphins.
Tunsil isn't the most polished tackle prospect from this class, but he's easily the most athletic and boasts the most upside. If he reaches his lofty potential, he should be giving quarterback Ryan Tannehill all the protection he needs in 2016 and beyond.
Runner-Up: Thomas Duarte, TE, UCLA (7th Round, 231st overall)
Minnesota Vikings
19 of 32
Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson (2nd Round, 54th overall)
Early on in the predraft process, Mackensie Alexander was entrenched in the conversation as possibly the top corner prospect in this year's class. His lack of size and production—5'10", 190 pounds, no career interceptions at Clemson—likely contributed to his stock falling a bit, but the Vikings got themselves a confident cover man with plenty of swagger and a high ceiling.
Opposing quarterbacks often avoided Alexander, which helps explain the absence of interceptions in the stat sheet, and his attitude is exactly what NFL teams need from their starting corners. Minnesota won't count on him as the No. 1 guy, which should help mitigate his lack of height and allow him more opportunities to make big plays as offenses try to pick on the rookie.
Runner-Up: Stephen Weatherly, DE, Vanderbilt (7th Round, 227th overall)
New England Patriots
20 of 32
Elandon Roberts, LB, Houston (6th Round, 214th overall)
Some may question Elandon Roberts' athleticism, but there's certainly no doubting his production and leadership qualities. The nation's leader in solo tackles last season, Roberts is a player who is greater than the sum of his parts, with the kind of work ethic the Patriots will love.
At 6'0", 235 pounds, Roberts is undersized for a 3-4 inside linebacker, but he's tough and physical enough to survive at that spot. He'll make a living on special teams immediately, but he's the kind of grinder who could easily work his way up the depth chart over the next couple of seasons.
Runner-Up: Devin Lucien, WR, Arizona State (7th Round, 225th overall)
New Orleans Saints
21 of 32
Daniel Lasco, RB, California (7th Round, 237th overall)
When healthy, Daniel Lasco was one of the most dynamic and productive backs in the nation last season, as he rushed for at least 140 yards in every full game he played. The key is staying healthy, as multiple injuries have cost him significant action over his college career.
He's a shifty runner who can survive between the tackles, but Lasco will make his money in space as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. If he can stay healthy, it shouldn't be surprising if quarterback Drew Brees grew quite fond of Lasco as a potential Darren Sproles-type weapon on offense.
Runner-Up: Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State (2nd Round, 47th overall)
New York Giants
22 of 32
Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA (5th Round, 149th overall)
The running back parade continues with Paul Perkins, one of the shiftiest runners in the entire draft who could take advantage of a muddy committee situation in the Giants backfield.
Perkins rushed for nearly 3,000 yards over the past two seasons, and he showed a stellar combination of quickness, vision, patience and explosiveness as a runner. The G-Men had a revolving door at the position last year, and Perkins is the type of big-play back who could easily snatch the starting role away before Week 1 with a solid training camp and preseason performance.
Runner-Up: Darian Thompson, S, Boise State (3rd Round, 71st overall)
New York Jets
23 of 32
Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia (3rd Round, 83rd overall)
Another solid value in a draft class short on impact edge-rushers, multiple injuries hampered Jordan Jenkins' 2015 totals, but he flashed the ability to be a legitimate playmaker. He racked up 5.5 tackles for loss and two sacks against Vanderbilt, which shows just how disruptive he can be.
Teammate Leonard Floyd is the flashier player and ended up in the top 10, but it was Jenkins who did the dirty work for the Bulldogs on the edge. He should benefit from playing alongside one of the NFL's best defensive lines and prove to be a productive rusher if he can avoid injury at the next level.
Runner-Up: Brandon Shell, OL, South Carolina (5th Round, 158th overall)
Oakland Raiders
24 of 32
Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State (3rd Round, 75th overall)
This year's draft was about adding new weapons on defense early on for Oakland, and its best move was picking up a versatile edge player in Shilique Calhoun, who could have easily warranted a top-40 pick.
At 6'4", 251 pounds, Calhoun has the frame to add bulk, but he also has the athleticism and fluidity to impact the game in multiple ways. He can get after the quarterback with his quickness and length, but he is flexible enough to get the job done in coverage as well. He should thrive lined up across from Khalil Mack.
Runner-Up: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State (4th Round, 100th overall)
Philadelphia Eagles
25 of 32
Jalen Mills, DB, LSU (7th round, 233rd overall)
Another name many expected to hear called on Day 2, Jalen Mills had a free-fall on draft weekend and nearly fell out of all seven rounds completely. Off-field concerns and injuries likely combined to cause that fall, but he could end up being a steal if he's able to avoid those issues at the next level.
Mills won't light up the stopwatch with his speed or athleticism, but he's got the versatility to play either corner or safety with successful experience at both against SEC competition. The Eagles made a few picks that look like reaches right now, but Mills could easily end up being the best bargain of the group.
Runner-Up: Alex McCalister, DE, Florida (7th Round, 240th overall)
Pittsburgh Steelers
26 of 32
Tyler Matakevich, LB, Temple (7th Round, 246th overall)
College awards and production don't always equal pro success, but there's no arguing the value of getting last year's Nagurski Award winner in the final round. Tyler Matakevich racked up nearly 500 total tackles over his four years with the Owls, and he brings plenty of experience and production to the pro level.
Another player who doesn't have flashy workout numbers but brings the intangibles that a team like the Steelers values highly, Matakevich plays with intensity and a nonstop motor. He should make an immediate impact on special teams, and he has the potential to develop into a starter down the road.
Runner-Up: Travis Feeney, LB, Washington (6th Round, 220th overall)
San Diego Chargers
27 of 32
Joshua Perry, LB, Ohio State (4th Round, 102nd overall)
Much ado was made about all the Buckeyes that came off the board over the draft's first two days, but Joshua Perry was one of the best values of the bunch, as he slid to Day 3 but ended up in a perfect fit for his skill set.
Overshadowed by the more flashy playmakers in Columbus, Perry simply got the job done day in and day out for the Buckeyes. He's a solid overall athlete with great size—6'4", 254 pounds—and sound technique who brings leadership qualities and a work ethic that's invaluable at the pro level. He'll have a positive impact from day one in the locker room and on the field, and he could quickly steal a starting job.
Runner-Up: Jatavis Brown, LB, Akron (5th Round, 175th overall)
San Francisco 49ers
28 of 32
Ronald Blair, DL, Appalachian State (5th Round, 142nd overall)
Small-school prospects don't seem to be falling through the cracks as often as they once did, but Ronald Blair is a perfect example of how it can still happen. His film and workouts show a solidly built, versatile defender who can line up in multiple positions up front and disrupt opposing offenses in multiple ways.
First-round pick DeForest Buckner will have much higher expectations, but Blair is built for the NFL game with the toughness and versatility to frustrate both interior and exterior blockers. Last year's Sun Belt Conference Defensive Player of the Year should challenge for plenty of snaps as a rookie and eventually end up in the starting lineup.
Runner-Up: Kelvin Taylor, RB, Florida (6th Round, 211th overall)
Seattle Seahawks
29 of 32
Jarran Reed, DL, Alabama (2nd Round, 49th overall)
It's not sexy to spend premium picks on defensive linemen who don't specialize in high sack totals. But the Seahawks were another team that benefited from this, as arguably the best run-defending interior lineman fell into the mid-second round, where they pulled the trigger to trade up for him.
A'Shawn Robinson was the more popular name in-season, but Jarran Reed was just as responsible for the Crimson Tide's dominant run defense. He routinely holds his ground against double-teams and can still force his way into making a play, and his inconsistent motor will likely be helped by playing alongside fiery competitors like Michael Bennett. It won't be long before he's in the starting lineup and shutting down opposing ground games.
Runner-Up: Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas (5th Round, 171st overall)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30 of 32
Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky (2nd Round, 39th overall)
It's rare for a team to grab the best pure pass-rusher in the draft in the second round, but that's exactly what the Bucs did by snagging Noah Spence at this pick. While some teams may still have been concerned about his past off-field issues, the Bucs were clearly comfortable making him the selection, and it could pay big dividends in the long run.
A highly touted recruit who flashed playmaking ability at Ohio State before dominating at EKU in 2015, Spence can bend the edge with explosiveness and technique. He's got a knack for getting to the quarterback by whatever means necessary, and he should make an instant impact for a Tampa Bay team starved for a dynamic sack artist off the edge.
Runner-Up: Dan Vitale, FB, Northwestern (6th Round, 197th overall)
Tennessee Titans
31 of 32
Kalan Reed, CB, Southern Mississippi (7th Round, 253rd overall)
Hard to find better value than with the last pick in the draft, right? Tennessee wanted to make sure Kalan Reed didn't hit the undrafted free-agent market, so the Titans traded up to the final selection to add him to their seemingly endless draft class.
At 5'11", 195 pounds, Reed won't wow anyone with elite athleticism or speed, but his combination of instincts and ball skills made him a successful playmaker for the Golden Eagles. He should be one of few seventh-rounders to quickly carve out a roster spot, and he has the potential to develop into a starter before his rookie deal is up.
Runner-Up: Sebastian Tretola, G, Arkansas (6th Round, 193rd overall)
Washington
32 of 32
Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (3rd Round, 84th overall)
A knee injury is obviously the biggest reason Kendall Fuller fell down the board, but he's a player who was originally in the first-round conversation before getting hurt, and he could end up being of that much value once he makes a full recovery.
You can't argue with his bloodlines, as Fuller is the fourth brother from his family to make it to the pro ranks. He's fluid and rangy in coverage, and he has the toughness and willingness to mix it up in the box against the run. Once he gets to 100 percent, he should prove why a team should have taken a chance on him much earlier.
Runner-Up: Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia (7th Round, 242nd overall)
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