Players Ken Pomeroy Is Going to Love in the 2016-17 College Basketball Season

Josh Hart finished the 2015-16 season ranked fifth in the KenPom.com Player of the Year (kPOY) standings, and that makes him the early favorite to top the list of players Ken Pomeroy's metrics will adore in this coming season.

In attempting to simplify Pomeroy's complex (and top-secret) formula for the kPOY standings, we noticed a handful of common threads among top-10 finishers:

• Player was used on at least 25 percent of possessions when on the floor and was responsible for at least 25 percent of field-goal attempts taken when on the floor.
• More often than not, player was on the court for more than 30 minutes per game.
• Player attempted a minimum of 170 free throws (roughly five per game) throughout the season.
• Player had an O-rating of at least 110.
• Player was on a team that ranked in the top 25 according to Pomeroy's pythagorean formula.

Now, we're not necessarily looking for players who met all of those criteria this past season, but rather searching for guys who have the talent and opportunity to check all of those boxes this coming season.

Players are ranked in ascending order of how certain we are that they will finish in the top 10 of the kPOY standings in 2016-17.

Honorable Mentions

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Johnathan Motley

Johnathan Motley, Baylor

High-usage big men tend to fare well in Pomeroy’s player rankings. North Carolina's Brice Johnson finished in first place this past season by a wide margin. The year before that, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky ran away with the kPOY award. And there’s a reasonable case to be made for Motley to join that club this year with Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince now out of the picture. Baylor might not win enough games for Motley to contend for this honor, but he should be the most used and most valuable frontcourt player in the Big 12.

Trevon Bluiett, Xavier

Bluiett put up numbers similar to Villanova’s Josh Hart, but his two-point percentage (44.9) and occasional turnover problems (1.6 per game) didn’t do his efficiency metrics any favors. If he comes back for one more season and improves both of those rates, Bluiett would be a strong contender for the Wooden Award.

Charles Cooke, Dayton

The former James Madison transfer was clutch on both ends of the court, averaging 15.6 points per game while also pitching in 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks. With Dyshawn Pierre no longer on the roster, Cooke should only receive more opportunities for points and rebounds.

Allonzo Trier, Arizona

Trier is probably good enough to rank in the top five, but opportunity is the big question for him. In addition to stud incoming freshmen Terrance Ferguson, Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons and Lauri Markkanen, Arizona also has redshirt freshman Ray Smith and returning backcourt weapons Kadeem Allen and Parker Jackson-Cartwright. If any individual is responsible for 25 percent of the shots on this loaded roster, something has gone horribly awry.

Ivan Rabb, California
Melo Trimble, Maryland

Rabb and Trimble will likely both get some love on preseason All-American ballots. However, team success is a critical element of this equation, and both California and Maryland lost too much this offseason to be projected Top 25 teams.

Grayson Allen, Duke
Kris Jenkins, Villanova

Allen and Jenkins both put up huge numbers this past season, but neither one finished the season in the top 10 of the kPOY standings. The bigger problem, though, is that they each have a teammate in our top 10, and we decided against ranking multiple players from the same team. If any school is going to produce multiple top-10 kPOY finishers, though, it’s probably Duke or Villanova.

10. Malachi Richardson, Syracuse

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Malachi Richardson

2015-16 Stats: 13.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 100.2 O-rating, 22.1 %Poss, 23.3 %Shots

Efficiency was not Malachi Richardson’s strong suit as a freshman, but when he was hot, few were better than him.

The graduations of Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije leave Richardson as Syracuse’s only returning backcourt player who averaged so much as two points per game. If he decides to put off the NBA for one more year, don’t be surprised if Richardson makes a T.J. Warren type of sophomore leap to vie for the national scoring title.

But will that be enough to make Syracuse a Top 25 team in 2016-17? And can Richardson become efficient enough to be admired by Pomeroy’s metrics?

He shot just 37.0 percent from the field last season and averaged 2.1 turnovers per game as a secondary ball-handler. He’ll need to be consistently smarter with the ball, but he has the talent to become the most important player in the country.

9. Justin Jackson, North Carolina

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Justin Jackson

2015-16 Stats: 12.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, 119.0 O-rating, 20.4 %Poss, 22.9 %Shots

There were spurts last season in which Justin Jackson played like the best NBA prospect on the best NCAA team in the country, but he had both the gift and the curse of being able to defer to his teammates on a regular basis. As a result, Marcus Paige and Joel Berry II were North Carolina’s most important guards during the NCAA tournament and Brice Johnson had the best season of any frontcourt player in the nation.

Now that Paige and Johnson have exhausted their years of eligibility, though, there’s little choice but for Jackson to become “the guy” for the Tar Heels this year.

Whether that’s enough to make him one of the top players in 2016-17 will likely depend on his three-point accuracy.

The 6’8” wing does a lot of things well. He drives strong and finishes better, connecting on 53.7 percent of his shots from inside the arc. He’s one of North Carolina’s best passers and rebounders and does it without committing many fouls or turnovers. But at 29.2 percent from three-point range, he’s doing more harm than good from that distance. Get that number up into the 36-38 percent range, and Jackson might be the most versatile weapon in the country.

8. Malik Monk, Kentucky

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Malik Monk

2015-16 Stats: N/A (freshman)

By all accounts, Malik Monk is going to be one of the nation's most fun-to-watch players next season. He’s only 6’4” on a good day, but everyone marvels over his ability to play above the rim with explosiveness. And when he’s not busy throwing down highlight-reel dunks, Monk is a solid three-point shooter with significantly above-average court vision.

There might not be a more dangerous player from the triple-threat position.

Monk will be immediately asked to fill Jamal Murray’s shoes in this rotation. Kentucky’s shooting guard played nearly 35 minutes per game and was responsible for 28.8 percent of the shots taken while he was on the floor. Murray averaged 20.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game and was one of the three most valuable freshmen in the nation (along with LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram).

Maybe look for something more like 17.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game from Monk, but he ought to be the driving force of a Kentucky team that wins at least 30 games.

7. Eron Harris, Michigan State

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Eron Harris

2015-16 Stats: 9.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.1 APG, 110.9 O-rating, 22.8 %Poss, 23.1 %Shots

Freshmen Miles Bridges, Joshua Langford, Cassius Winston and Nick Ward are what have everyone buzzing about Michigan State as a Top 10 team in 2016-17, but that only happens if Eron Harris has a monster senior year.

The Spartans lost a ton this offseason. In addition to Denzel Valentine, they also said goodbye to Bryn Forbes, Matt Costello and Deyonta Davis—otherwise known as four-fifths of the players who averaged at least 4.0 points per game.

This leaves Harris as the cream of the returning crop.

He shot 43.9 percent from three-point range, but he only attempted 98 triples, compared to 233 by Forbes and 234 by Valentine. But look for a jump similar to what Travis Trice experienced a few years ago.

Trice was, at best, the fourth wheel on the 2014 Elite Eight team, attempting just 18.4 percent of the shots despite posting one of the best three-point percentages and O-ratings on the roster. But after Gary Harris, Keith Appling and Adreian Payne left, Trice became the go-to guy in the Spartans offense.

There’s a good chance that either Bridges or Langford comes in and quickly steals that role, but Harris should get first crack at primary scorer for what might be the best team in the Big Ten once again.

6. London Perrantes, Virginia

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London Perrantes with Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill

2015-16 Stats: 11.0 PPG, 4.4 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 117.7 O-rating, 19.3 %Poss, 18.2 %Shots

Percentage of shots taken last season was a major criterion considered for inclusion, and London Perrantes doesn’t remotely stack up against the other returning players on the list. However, there were only four Cavaliers on last year’s roster who averaged at least 5.0 points per game, and the other three graduated.

What’s crazy is that Perrantes shot 48.8 percent from three-point range last season, but he only averaged 4.6 attempts per game. The national rate of three-pointers attempted was higher than it has ever been, and yet one of the deadliest shooters in the country was perfectly content with recording almost as many assists (153) as three-point attempts (160).

Even with Memphis transfer Austin Nichols and highly rated freshmen guards Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome inbound, there’s about a 100 percent chance that Virginia is more reliant upon Perrantes for points in 2016-17.

And let’s not overlook Pomeroy’s love affair with Virginia’s style of play over the past few seasons. Justin Anderson was highly rated in the kPOY standings before breaking his finger late in the 2014-15 season, while Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill both spent much of the past two seasons near the top of those standings. Virginia’s best player has been a near shoo-in for a spot in the kPOY Top 10, and Perrantes should be that guy.

5. James Blackmon Jr., Indiana

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James Blackmon Jr.

2015-16 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, 120.8 O-rating, 27.0 %Poss, 32.9 %Shots

The most foolproof way to get noticed by Pomeroy’s player ratings is to be an efficient ball hog, and James Blackmon Jr. fits that description beautifully.

Blackmon only lasted 13 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, but he was shooting 46.3 percent from three, 50.0 percent inside the arc and 85.2 percent from the charity stripe while being responsible for nearly one-third of Indiana’s shots while on the floor. All of those numbers were better than the freshman season in which he took 29.2 percent of Indiana’s shots while on the court—just in case you were wondering if the small sample size against inferior nonconference foes was to blame for his high rate of shots taken.

And with Yogi Ferrell (428 field-goal attempts in 2015-16) no longer on the roster, there’s no logical reason to assume that Blackmon will stop shooting so much. The only question is whether his knee will be healthy enough to put up the type of percentages he was hitting before the injury.

4. Josh Jackson, Kansas

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Josh Jackson

2015-16 Stats: N/A (freshman)

For maybe a week, it looked like Kansas’ streak of Big 12 titles would be in jeopardy next season. With Wayne Selden, Brannen Greene and Cheick Diallo declaring for the draft and Perry Ellis and Jamari Traylor graduating, there was a gaping hole at small forward.

But then the Jayhawks signed the No. 1 recruit in this year’s class, per 247Sports, and once again assumed their role as the overwhelming favorite to win the conference.

With a lot of highly rated high school players, we worry about tenacity or a willingness to be committed on the defensive end. They thrive on simply being that much better than everyone around them, rarely needing to exert much effort on either end of the floor.

With Jackson, that latter part couldn’t be further from the truth. He’s better than most everyone his age and still plays with a fire typically reserved for guys trying to prove that they belong.

Whether you choose to view him as a more defensive-minded Andrew Wiggins or a more physically gifted Malcolm Brogdon, comparisons to recent college greats will be both unavoidable and justified. Jackson is going to be fun to watch for one season.

3. Jayson Tatum, Duke

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Jayson Tatum

2015-16 Stats: N/A (freshman)

If we’ve learned anything over the past few seasons, it’s that Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski knows what to do with stud freshman small forwards, turning Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow and (presumably) Brandon Ingram into lottery picks after just one season.

And if you think that trend is going to end next June, you may want to do some more homework on Jayson Tatum.

As was the case with Ingram at this time one year ago, the question marks on Tatum are his size and range. He isn’t nearly the string bean Ingram was in high school, but at 6’8” and 208 pounds, he’s no taller or bulkier than UNC’s Justin Jackson, which isn’t saying much. And Tatum is much more of a mid-range weapon than a three-point assassin, so early returns are that he won’t be nearly the stretch 4 that Ingram was.

But that’s just fine for this year’s Blue Devils, where there are already too many perimeter options in Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard and Matt Jones. Tatum should be the perfect bridge between those guards and Amile Jefferson and Harry Giles, functioning as something of a free safety on offense.

Allen will likely be the leading scorer, but look for Tatum to be the most pivotal freshman on what ought to be the best team in the country.

2. Dillon Brooks, Oregon

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Dillon Brooks and Dana Altman

2015-16 Stats: 16.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 113.2 O-rating, 26.0 %Poss, 27.1 %Shots

Dillon Brooks is the most disrespected college basketball star in recent memory.

His excellent freshman season was buried beneath the accolades of teammate Joseph Young and other Pac-12 freshmen such as Stanley Johnson, Kevon Looney and Jakob Poeltl.

Brooks was once again overshadowed this past season by Poeltl, as the Utah big man was named Pac-12 Player of the Year, even though Oregon went 3-0 against the Utes and earned a No. 1 seed thanks to Brooks.

And then when he finally got the opportunity to have a big game against a marquee opponent with the whole world watching, what Brooks did in the Sweet 16 against Duke was completely lost in the shuffle of what Mike Krzyzewski said to him after the game.

It’s time to wise up, America. If he comes back, Brooks should be a preseason first-team All-American. And if he can get just the slightest bit better from beyond the arc (33.8 percent in 2015-16), he’s going to be one of the top candidates for the Wooden Award.

1. Josh Hart, Villanova

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Josh Hart

2015-16 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 117.7 O-rating, 23.6 %Poss, 25.5 %Shots

Josh Hart is the only returning player (presumably) who finished last season in the Top 10 of the kPOY standings, so it only makes sense that he opens as the favorite for the award in 2016-17.

That he ranked so highly is proof that we’re not necessarily on the hunt for the most frequent or most accurate scorers. Rather, it’s a search for the best all-around player from the best team.

Not one of Hart’s conventional numbers stands out as a sign of greatness. He wasn’t a top-200 scorer or rebounder. He only shot 35.7 percent from three and 75.2 percent from the free-throw line. But he was one of just 10 players in the country with at least 5.9 win shares and a box score plus/minus of at least 10.0, joining Buddy Hield, Denzel Valentine, Brice Johnson, Malcolm Brogdon, Ben Simmons, Jakob Poeltl, Ron Baker, Jameel Warney and Thomas Walkup.

That's good company, yes?

And if he’s anything like those who came before him at Villanova, he’s only going to get better in his fourth and final season. Maybe it won’t be quite as incredible as Hield’s improvement from junior-year Big 12 POY to senior-year Wooden Award winner, but get ready to hear a ton about Hart if he does decide to put off the allure of the NBA for one more season.

Statistics are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.