NFL Rookies in Best Position to Succeed This Season
The 2016 NFL draft has come and gone. While the football world at large will undoubtedly be turning its attention to training camps and the preseason soon, there is still some time to bask in the draft's afterglow.
For most of us, this means reviewing each team's haul and checking out the plethora of draft grades floating around in the media. Generally, a draft class is considered strong when it appears that a number of incoming rookies will be able to immediately contribute to team success.
Today, though, we're going to view things from a different prospective. Instead of looking at draft classes or what rookies can bring into the NFL, we're going to examine what NFL teams have to immediately offer these first-year players. In other words, we'll be looking at rookies with the best chance of individual success in 2016 based on factors such as scheme fit, projected role, supporting talent and coaching.
This isn't meant as a prediction of team success or individual career success. This is a look at which players we believe are best set up for strong inaugural campaigns.
Karl Joseph, S, Oakland Raiders
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The Oakland Raiders spent the 14th overall pick in the draft on former West Virginia safety Karl Joseph. Some will undoubtedly view the selection as a reach—especially with Joseph coming off a late-season knee injury. However, this doesn't mean he can't and won't be successful as a rookie.
In fact, Joseph is entering a situation that should allow him to thrive right out of the gate.
The 5'10", 205-pound Joseph was one of the hardest-hitting defenders in the entire draft, and his ball skills are above-average. This is important because he will likely be tested a lot in a secondary that also features ball-hawking safety Reggie Nelson and cornerback Sean Smith.
"I love that Karl Joseph pick for the Raiders," Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller tweeted during the draft. "Secondary is a potential strength now."
Joseph will have opportunities to make plays on the ball and deliver big hits to the opposition. These opportunities are likely to come even more frequently because the Raiders offense—which was rated ninth overall by Pro Football Focus last season—has the ability to put up points.
Opposing teams are going to have to throw against Oakland, and the ball will likely end up in Joseph's direction frequently. Thanks to a potentially devastating Raiders pass rush, those footballs might not come via the most accurate of throws, either.
The Raiders defense also features linebacker Khalil Mack, someone Pro Football Focus rated first overall among all edge-rushers last season. He will be joined by offseason acquisition Bruce Irvin, who has some pass-rushing ability of his own.
Joseph should have plenty of chances to make plays and highlight reels as a rookie.
Shaq Lawson, DE, and Reggie Ragland, LB, Buffalo Bills
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If Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan was hoping to land an influx of defensive talent in this year's draft, he got his wish. The team's top two picks are headed toward the defensive side of the ball.
Former Clemson pass-rusher Shaq Lawson was selected in the first round (19th overall) and former Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland was taken a round later (41st overall). The Bills also took former Ohio State defensive tackle Adolphus Washington in Round 3, be he projects as more of a rotational player early on.
Lawson, who produced 12.5 sacks this past season at Clemson, should immediately step into the pass-rusher role vacated by Mario Williams this offseason.
Ragland should quickly earn a significant role, especially on early downs. He is a tackling machine—he made 102 of them last season—and he should quickly establish himself as a nightmare for opposing ball-carriers in Buffalo. Ragland was a player the Bills strongly considered in Round 1, so it's easy to think Ryan already has plans for him.
“We were going to take him at pick 19, so this was a no-brainer,” Bills general manager Doug Whaley said of Ragland, per Mark Belcher of WIVB Buffalo. “He’s a winner and a leader and we need that on our defense.”
The reason the Bills give Ragland and Lawson opportunities for success is this is a defense-oriented team led by a defense-driven head coach. Though the Bills dropped in their defensive ranking in 2015—15th in the NFL with 22.4 points per game allowed—there are other seriously talented pieces in place. The secondary, for example, was rated 11th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus in 2015.
Ryan has earned a reputation over the years as a head coach who can maximize his defensive talent, and Lawson and Ragland project as two of the most talented players in Buffalo's defensive front this season. They should immediately become starters, and they will get their chances to shine.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
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The New York Giants used a high second-round pick, 40th overall, on former Oklahoma receiver Sterling Shepard. In doing so, they gave Shepard a home alongside one of the NFL's most electrifying wide receivers.
The 5'10", 194-pound Shepard projects as a slot receiver in the Giants offense. There, he would have the benefit of playing on the same field as superstar Odell Beckham Jr., who will command defensive attention with regularity. He should also benefit from having a healthy Victor Cruz playing opposite Beckham out wide.
Of course, Shepard shouldn't and doesn't expect to be limited to a slot receiver role in New York.
“Honestly, I play so big, I don’t limit myself to just the inside,” Shepard said, per the Giants' official website. “A lot of people think that that’s all I can do is play inside just because of my size. But I think guys like Odell and Victor have proven that that’s not the case. I’m definitely one of those guys that can be bounced around and move all around.”
If Shepard can fill multiple roles in the receiving corps, it would give the Giants flexibility and freedom in the passing game. It would also increase the possibility of Shepard having a strong rookie campaign. Shepard racked up 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns last season, so he definitely has the talent to be a playmaker.
In New York, he should get his opportunities to make plays while Beckham and Cruz claim much of the defensive attention.
Oh, and having a veteran passer such as Eli Manning under center isn't going to hurt.
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Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams
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The Los Angeles Rams took a big risk by trading up to No. 1 overall in order to secure former California signal-caller Jared Goff, but it's a risk the team obviously believes will pay off.
"[Goff] may start on Monday night," Rams head coach Jeff Fisher said in reference to the team's season opener, per Conor Orr of NFL.com. "That's the goal. We understand the environment, believe me. He does. We've had lengthy conversations. If I had concerns about whether Jared could handle this, I wouldn't be talking about Jared right now. He can handle it."
Goff isn't the only quarterback who will have an opportunity to be an opening-day starter, but he might just have the best chance of early success. This is because he won't be asked to carry a struggling franchise on his shoulders or to adapt to the pro game with little experience at a top collegiate level.
The Rams are a defensive team and a good one. They finished last season with a 7-9 record and a defense that was rated seventh overall by Pro Football Focus.
On top of having a defensive support system, Goff will benefit from having some quality offensive weapons at his disposal. The biggest weapon is obviously 2015 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Todd Gurley. A game-changing running back, Gurley will likely do the heavy lifting on offense as Goff grows into his role.
Goff will be able to throw to quality receivers such as Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt. Fellow rookies such as tight end Tyler Higbee and receiver Pharoh Cooper could be assets as well. However, Gurley will undoubtedly be Goff's ace in the proverbial hole.
After all, screen passes to Gurley still count as passing yards for Goff.
Throughout last season, the Rams felt like a team that was a quarterback away form being a playoff contender. Now the Rams have that quarterback in Goff, and both parties should see success in 2016 as a result.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints may well have landed one of the bigger steals in this year's draft when they used a second-round pick, 47th overall, on Ohio State product Michael Thomas.
The 6'3", 212-pound pass-catcher has ideal size, above-average speed and nearly flawless hands. Though he isn't a burner or a superior route-runner, Thomas has the goods to make an immediate impact for the Saints offense in 2016. In fact, Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller rated Thomas as his top receiver heading into the draft.
Even as he continues to adapt to the pro game, Thomas can be an early asset. The Saints, in turn, offer Thomas a number of advantages that could help him succeed as a rookie.
Perhaps the biggest advantage is the presence of perennial Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees. Though he may be entering the twilight of his career, Brees is still extremely productive. Brees led the NFL with 4,870 yards passing last year and finished the season rated sixth overall among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus.
Thomas will also get some help from the creative offensive mind of head coach Sean Payton and the presence of fellow pass-catchers such as Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead and new tight end Coby Fleener. Thomas won't be facing the full focus of opposing defenses, but he should have a large role.
While the offseason departure of longtime receiver Marques Colston does leave Thomas with some big shoes to fill, it also gives him a stellar opportunity to thrive in a dynamic offense.
"They just lost Marques...and the offense is tremendous and the coaching staff is tremendous also," Thomas said after the draft, per Katherine Terrell of NOLA.com. "I wouldn't have chosen anywhere else. But you can't pick, they pick you."
The pairing of Thomas and the Saints should be one that bears success for both parties.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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Former Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott is probably the most obvious choice on this list, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't examine his situation.
Most of the time, a player selected in the top five is going to end up on a team devoid of talent. This isn't the case for Elliott, who was able to land with the Dallas Cowboys at No. 4 overall thanks to a number of serious injuries for Dallas in 2015.
No, the Cowboys were not good this past season. However, this was almost entirely because of injuries suffered by quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Dez Bryant. The team has talent. If both Romo and Bryant are healthy in 2016, Elliot will have the benefit of playing with an upper-tier quarterback and a true field-stretching receiver.
Loading up the box to stop Elliot won't be a regular occurrence. Even if the Cowboys deploy a run-heavy offense onto the field this season, opposing defenses would still have to respect the passing game.
Elliott will also benefit from playing behind a standout offensive line. Pro Football Focus rated no team higher than the Cowboys in run blocking this past season. Elliott amassed more than 1,800 yards rushing in each of the past two seasons behind a good Ohio State line. It's not hard to think he could put up similar numbers behind Dallas' line.
“The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the league, and that’s a running back’s dream,” Elliott said after being drafted, per the Cowboys' official website.
Lastly, the Cowboys could help Elliott succeed by limiting his workload. Dallas also has Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris on the roster. Both have 1,000-yard NFL seasons on their resumes and could ensure the Cowboys don't wear Elliott into the ground.
Elliott should have no problems being fresh, effective and productive as a rookie this season.
Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Arizona Cardinals
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Former Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche fell to the bottom end of the first round (29th overall), but he landed in an absolutely ideal position with the Arizona Cardinals.
The 6'3", 294-pound Nkemdiche should immediately become the force in the middle of Arizona's defensive front. He is capable of stonewalling ball-carriers at the point of attack, and he could bring an interior pass rush from the defensive-tackle position. This means Nkemdiche should be able to get on the field early and stay on it for Arizona.
This, in turn, should lead to plenty of production for Nkemdiche. He should see plenty of opportunities to thrive as a run-stuffer, as opposing offenses shouldn't be aching to attack the Cardinals through the air.
Pro Football Focus rated Arizona fifth overall in pass coverage last season.
Nkemdiche should also see opportunities to make plays as an interior pass-rusher when opposing teams do go to the air. Offseason acquisition Chandler Jones is likely to receive most of the attention from blockers on the edge. Though Nkemdiche only had 3.0 sacks last season at Ole Miss, he does have the capability to pressure the quarterback.
It's going to be difficult for opposing teams to consistently double-team Nkemdiche or consistently avoid putting the football in his direction because of the rest on Arizona's defense. This is a playoff-caliber unit, and it sets Nkemdiche up with a prime opportunity to shine in the defensive-driven NFC West.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengas
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Late second-round selection and former Pittsburgh wide receiver Tyler Boyd may have envied the wide receivers drafted before him. However, he is entering one of the most enviable situations a young receiver could have this year.
By landing with the Cincinnati Bengals, Boyd will get an opportunity to be the No. 2 receiver on a team that has reached the postseason in each of the past five years. He also gets to be a piece of an offense Pro Football Focus rated sixth overall in 2015.
The 6'2", 200-pound Boyd didn't have the greatest quarterback situation at Pitt last season, but he still produced 91 receptions for 926 yards and six scores. Two-time Pro Bowler Andy Dalton will be his quarterback this year.
Boyd will also get to play alongside the likes of wideout A.J. Green and tight end tight end Tyler Eifert. With those two on the field, Boyd should regularly see one-on-one coverage. With running backs such as Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard in the backfield, he shouldn't see many defenses cheating to stop the pass.
In one-on-one situations and against base coverages, Boyd should be able to feast as a rookie. He isn't going to be the fastest player on the field—he ran a 4.58-second 40 at his pro day—but Boyd is an incredible route-runner and catches nearly everything in his vicinity.
With Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu both out in Cincinnati, Boyd should be able to step in and receive the opportunities of a true second receiver. This should put him in line for an impressive rookie campaign.
Jalen Ramsey, DB, and Myles Jack, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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It's been a while since we've really been excited about the first-year prospects of a Jacksonville Jaguars draft pick, but things are different now.
With the fifth overall pick of the draft, the Jaguars grabbed former Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey. Many viewed Ramsey as the best overall player in the entire class. A round later, the Jaguars scooped up former UCLA linebacker Myles Jack. Though there is some significant injury concern surrounding Jack, he is certainly a Day 1 starter and a top-tier talent.
The reality is both of these players should be set up nicely for rookie success in 2016. Not only could the two rangy defenders complement each other out on the field, but they're entering a defensive situation that is much different than the one the Jaguars boasted a year ago.
In 2015, the Jaguars were rated just 30th in overall defense by Pro Football Focus. This was before Jacksonville took to free agency to address the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars ended up adding standout defensive end Malik Jackson, playmaking safety Tashaun Gipson and starting-caliber cornerback Prince Amukamara. With Jack and Ramsey in the mix, Jacksonville could have five new quality starters on defense.
The potential return of injured pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. makes six.
Getting this new-look defense to jell will be a challenge, of course, but the group will receive plenty of chances to prove its worth. The Jacksonville offense—ranked 14th in the league last season with an average of 23.5 points per game—has already proved it can hold its own. If the defense can raise its level of play significantly, Jacksonville should be a playoff team.
Ramsey and Jack are positioned to be the stars and centerpieces of this new-look, playoff-caliber defense.
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