Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Early Lines and Predictions for Top Contenders
Just about a year ago, American Pharoah was about to start his journey that would mark the end of horse racing's long Triple Crown drought.
American Pharoah's name is now in a category with the other great Triple Crown winners, the most recent of which had been Affirmed in 1978.
However, now it's time for a new crop of three-year-olds to engage in the Triple Crown races, and that will begin Saturday with the Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs will feature a wide-open field that includes several excellent horses, but it will take an outstanding effort if one is going to match what American Pharoah did in 2015.
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In this piece, we look at the top contenders to win the Run for the Roses with less than a week to go before the fashion parade hits the Kentucky track and the best young thoroughbreds strut their stuff.
| Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | 10-3 |
| Exaggerator | J. Keith Desormeaux | 8-1 |
| Mohaymen | Kiaran McLaughlin | 8-1 |
| Gun Runner | Steven Asmussen | 10-1 |
| Brody's Cause | Dale Romans | 12-1 |
| Destin | Todd Pletcher | 14-1 |
| Mo Tom | Thomas Amoss | 16-1 |
| Suddenbreakingnews | Donnie Von Hemel | 16-1 |
| Mor Spirit | Bob Baffert | 18-1 |
| Outwork | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 |
| Creator | Steven Asmussen | 20-1 |
| Danzing Candy | Clifford Sise Jr. | 25-1 |
| Shagaf | Chad Brown | 25-1 |
| My Man Sam | Chad Brown | 25-1 |
| Swipe | J. Keith Desormeaux | 33-1 |
Nyquist
Nyquist is the early favorite in the Derby, at odds of 10-3, according to Odds Shark.
The dark bay colt sired by Uncle Mo is a perfect 7-of-7 at this point in his career and is deserving of respect from horse players.
Nyquist's last race was an impressive showing in the April 2 Florida Derby when he beat a tough field that included Derby rival Mohaymen. Nyquist put the race away by 3 ¼ lengths, even though he switched to the wrong lead in the final furlong.
Nyquist is not a front-runner, but he will want to get off to a good start where he can settle in behind the leaders and avoid the traffic that is standard in the Derby. Once he gets his comfortable stride, he will try to mount his best run that sends him to the lead and keeps him there.
Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal reported that 26 unbeaten horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 1915, and only seven of them have won the race. So even though Nyquist is perfect to this point in his career, it will be a difficult challenge to come out of the Derby with the same undefeated record.
Exaggerator
Exaggerator is one of the colts expected to give Nyquist a challenge in the Run for the Roses. The 8-1 choice has won four times in nine starts and also has two second-place finishes and one third.
Veteran jockey Kent Desormeaux will ride him, and Desormeaux has three Kentucky Derby victories to his credit, including a 2008 victory aboard Big Brown.
Curlin sired Exaggerator, and that means he is likely to turn in an excellent effort if it rains on Derby Day and the track is muddy. Exaggerator's last effort came in the mud on a sloppy track at Santa Anita, where he scored a 6 ¼-length victory.
Exaggerator will be tested in the 1 ¼-mile Derby. He appeared to be full of run in the March 12 San Felipe before stopping suddenly, but he looked much better in the Santa Anita Derby.
Mohaymen
Mohaymen comes into the Derby having won five of six starts and also has odds of 8-1.
The son of prolific sire Tapit out of dam Justwhistledixie is trained by Lexington, Kentucky, native Kiaran McLaughlin. Mohaymen met Nyquist in the Florida Derby and got handled by the undefeated horse. Mohaymen finished fourth in that race and more than eight lengths behind the winner.
Mohaymen likes to run from behind and then cut to the outside where he can power past tiring horses. That can be dangerous in the Derby, as it's easy for a horse to get caught in traffic because of the huge field that is always expected.
Gun Runner
Gun Runner appears to be a solid option for bettors because he has won four of his five races and comes into the Kentucky Derby with odds of 10-1.
Gun Runner was sired by Candy Ride, and that horse has produced previous Derby starters as well as horses who have won at the classic distances.
Gun Runner is coming off a strong performance in the Louisiana Derby, where he pulled away down the stretch to win by 4 ½ lengths.
Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner has tactical speed and likes to stalk the leaders before taking off and putting his signature on the race.
Kentucky Derby details provided by Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal.
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