What's at Stake for the Top Players at 2016 Madrid Masters?
April’s clay-court swing concludes with Rafael Nadal as the clear winner, but the 2016 Madrid Masters begins the all-important trilogy to crowning the French Open champion.
The top stars are rested and ready to take on the best of the ATP, and we will see who is peaking and who is off track.
Each player has something different at stake. Winning Madrid is the obvious goal, but how much success is needed for a possible run at the French Open title?
Here is our brief take on each of the top contenders.
Younger Players
1 of 8
It’s all gravy for teenagers like Alexander Zverev and Borna Coric. They are talented enough to win a match or two, but if not, Madrid will serve as a detour to the next step.
If they can reach a quarterfinal or semifinal, it would be a strong breakout and confidence-builder. Everyone else would take notice.
Nick Kyrgios defeated Roger Federer in Madrid’s second round last year, but he was bounced by John Isner in his next match. He needs to prove greater consistency after big wins. Anything less than the quarterfinals should be a disappointment to the young Australian.
Then there are the inconsistent "Lost Generation" members who have had intermittent success in reaching Masters semifinals.
Can David Goffin, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov build something special, or will they continue to blend success and mediocrity. Not much to lose, but there are always opportunities to gain.
Dominic Thiem
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February’s player of the month has shown big-time clay-court potential on the strength of four titles on the red surface in less than a year.
Dominic Thiem is on the short list of French Open contenders, but he has a lot to prove. Can he crash the semifinals or better while winning a couple of matches against top-10 veterans?
Madrid might be more important to the 22-year-old than to the other stars. He needs to establish himself as one of them and banish the doubts about floundering breakpoints in recent big matches against Djokovic and Nadal.
Call it “par” if he makes the quarterfinals, but he needs better to make a statement. Anything less would be a disappointment, and perhaps the talented young Austrian might go the way of Dimitrov—an occasional flash but not ascending any thrones.
Kei Nishikori
3 of 8
Kei Nishikori has proved to be a fine clay-court player, highlighted by Barcelona titles in 2014 and 2015, and runner-up placings to Rafael Nadal in the 2014 Madrid Masters and 2016 Barcelona Open.
The 26-year-old has been more durable thus far in 2016, but does he have the weapons to defeat two or three giants for a title like Madrid? He will need more than his defensive speed and offensive angles. Can he press enough to dictate with more control and play from a position of strength rather than get pushed?
Nishikori is a proven commodity, but winning Madrid would be a real sign of strength. Anything less and his story continues as it has.
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Stan Wawrinka
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Time's up, Stan Wawrinka. Like 2015, your spring tennis has been forgettable. We know you turned it on at just the right time to upend Federer and Djokovic in your career masterpiece. We know you can win the French Open, but if you glance in your corner for fan belief, few are stepping in to hold the towel.
The 31-year-old must also hang onto his No. 4 ranking with good performances in Madrid and Rome, because Nadal has streaked to only a 500-point deficit in the ATP Rankings. This is important for both players, because nobody wants to face three top players in the French Open beginning with the quarterfinals.
Of greater importance, Wawrinka needs to find his zone. He has the big strokes to impose his will, but does he have the accuracy one more time?
Madrid is not “make or break,” but the veteran needs to shore up his confidence with a big win or two along the way to the semifinals. Better that than coming away from a loss to Nadal with only a broken racket to symbolize his frustrations and game.
Rafael Nadal
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The first phase of the clay-court swing was a rousing success for Nadal. The King of Clay was hardly perfect as he dodged breakpoints and breaks on his way to titles at Monte Carlo and Barcelona, but he has to feel a surge of confidence.
It will get harder, and maybe Madrid is where the French Open trial begins. He needs to continue beating top-10 players, but he needs a victory over Novak Djokovic.
In losing 10 of 11 matches to the Serb since late 2013, Nadal has done little to show he can attack and defend against Djokovic’s current dominance. Can he renew the rivalry one more time?
It’s not a necessity that Nadal wins in Madrid, but he must keep building. Serving more effectively and setting up that forehand on the first return is one thing, but can he continue to upgrade his velocity and depth on both sides?
Roger Federer
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Roger Federer’s late entry to Madrid was not part of his original schedule early in 2016, but he has been pressed into more clay-court competition following time off from knee surgery and rehabilitation. He needs to continue to get the work and timing to push into an excellent summer.
Ideally, the 34-year-old would love to pull off the Madrid title. If he has a deep run, it would not be surprising to see him skip Rome and get rested for the French Open. If he loses one of his first couple of matches, it’s more likely he will fly into the Eternal City and get another tune-up.
Whatever his successes or shortcomings at Madrid, Federer most needs to feel confident with his knee. Is it truly healed and strong enough for a summer push at Wimbledon, the Olympic Games and the U.S. Open? That’s what’s at stake for the legendary Swiss: his chances at an 18th major and singles gold in Brazil.
Andy Murray
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Andy Murray might have the most to prove at the Madrid Masters. He has 1,000 points to defend from winning a year ago, but what he needs is a strong performance over Nadal and Djokovic.
Is the 28-year-old able to stay in the mix as a legitimate French Open contender, or will his 2015 success on clay slide back into relative mediocrity? It’s not a fluke that he is a three-time semifinalist at Roland Garros, as well as the 2015 Madrid Masters and 2015 Davis Cup champion with the final on clay courts in Belgium.
But there’s always the feeling that Murray is somehow behind his top rivals or that he could just as easily fade away as contend. He’s not getting any younger, and the wear and tear of a decade on the ATP could be showing up now or very soon.
Murray needs at least the semifinals, but he could really reap a lot of confidence in winning the title once again.
Novak Djokovic
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There’s no panic with Djokovic. Watch any of his major finals since 2015 and observe his resilience to stay the course (Maybe the French Open loss to Wawrinka was too passive) and rise above temporary emotional or tactical glitches.
He lost one match in the second round at Monte Carlo, and because he has not played since, it’s easy for observers to draw too many conclusions on that one upset.
If anyone thinks King Novak will not be more than a little focused and prepared to go after the title in Madrid, well, we’ve learned enough about Djokovic not to doubt his talent, work ethic and determination to be the absolute best.
Djokovic would love to win the title simply to keep everyone at bay. If he dominates Madrid, it reinforces why he is far ahead of his nearest competitors. What he needs most is to keep thrashing Nadal and Murray, to not let them believe they can pull off a French Open upset in the final weekend.
It’s never easy with the entire tour coming after you, including defending French Open champion Stan Wawrinka and talented youngsters like Dominic Thiem and Nick Kyrgios. He’s rested and ready for possibly the most important month of his career.
Will Djokovic keep imposing his mental dominance over the tour and finally claim that French Open trophy?
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