Which NCAA Basketball Coaches Will Have Most Success at New Schools in 2016-17?
College basketball's hectic offseason coaching carousel appears to be finally grinding to a halt, and it's looking like both the new (Bryce Drew) and former (Kevin Stallings) head coaches at Vanderbilt are in the best positions to succeed in 2016-17.
According to ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman, 50* of the 351 Division I schools have changed head coaches. A lot of those coaches were fired for doing poor jobs, and it's unlikely that their replacements will swoop in and immediately right the ship in one offseason. But a decent number of the coaching changes arose because of a series of coaches choosing to leave for what they interpreted to be better or more secure jobs.
As a result, there are quite a few coaches who could make the NCAA tournament in the first season at their new positions.
Will all 10 of these coaches get there? Probably not. Though there were nine teams to go dancing with new head coaches this past season—Arkansas-Little Rock, Buffalo, Chattanooga, Green Bay, Hawaii, Holy Cross, Iowa State, Texas and VCU—only one (North Dakota State) did so the year before that. And given the options available, it feels like we're leaning closer to one than nine for the 2016-17 season.
But based on the roster situations at these 50 schools, we've ranked the 10 coaches most likely to reach the 2017 NCAA tournament with new teams.
*Though he is on Goodman's list, we're excluding Wisconsin's Greg Gard from consideration, as that happened back in December.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Josh Pastner, Georgia Tech
Pastner left one rebuilding situation at Memphis and inherited another one at Georgia Tech. Though they're hanging onto the Lawson brothers, the Tigers lose Shaq Goodwin, Trahson Burrell, Ricky Tarrant and Avery Woodson, while the Yellow Jackets are forced to move on without Marcus Georges-Hunt, Charles Mitchell, Nick Jacobs, Adam Smith and James White. Best of luck to both programs in 2016-17.
Herb Sendek, Santa Clara
After a one-year hiatus from head coaching, Sendek is back in business in the West Coast Conference. But while the Broncos retain everyone from last season, it's difficult to expect much from a team that suffered 20 total losses and went 0-7 against BYU, Gonzaga and Saint Mary's by a combined margin of 148 points.
Brian Earl, Cornell
Like Sendek, Earl takes over a program returning everyone from last season. Unfortunately, it's a roster that had a .357 winning percentage and was blown out four combined times by Princeton and Yale, so the Big Red have a long way to go to have a successful season. On the bright side, they only need to finish in the top half of the Ivy League standings to make it into the conference tournament, and that might be feasible.
Wes Flanigan, Arkansas-Little Rock
The competition in the Sun Belt isn't particularly strong, so there's a reasonable chance that Arkansas-Little Rock repeats as conference champ. However, Josh Hagins, Roger Woods and Jermaine Ruttley are a lot to replace in one offseason. Kemy Osse and Jalen Jackson will need to step up in a big way for Wes Flanigan to reach the tournament in his first year as a head coach.
T.J. Otzelberger, South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits still have an excellent big man in Mike Daum, but he can't do everything for a team losing George Marshall, Deondre Parks, Keaton Moffitt and Jake Bittle. As is the case for Arkansas-Little Rock in the Sun Belt, though, there aren't exactly any other teams in the Summit League destined for greatness, so Otzelberger has a good shot with a team that has won at least 19 games in six straight seasons.
Matt Lottich, Valparaiso
What will Alec Peters decide to do? He's currently in the NBA draft pool without an agent, so he could go to the NBA, he could come back to Valparaiso or he could forgo the draft only to transfer elsewhere. Even if he does return to the Crusaders, though, they lost four key players in Vashil Fernandez, Keith Carter, Darien Walker and E. Victor Nickerson. It could be a bit of a rebuilding year under the first-time head coach.
10. Jamie Dixon, TCU
2 of 11
"TCU" and "success" don't often appear in the same sentence in college basketball. Since leaving Conference USA in 2005, the Horned Frogs have a combined record of 139-210 (.398) with no NCAA tournament appearances. It has been more than a decade since they won more than 18 games in a single season.
No, we're not expecting Jamie Dixon to come in and immediately win 25 games—a plateau he reached eight times in 13 seasons with Pittsburgh. But 20 wins might be feasible, and that would have to be considered a success story at TCU.
With the exception of Devonta Abron—who played sparingly last season—the Horned Frogs get back everyone from last year. Returning an entire roster from teams that lost more than 60 percent of their games was only enough for honorable mentions at Cornell and Santa Clara, but Dixon and TCU sneak in at No. 10 because they're also gaining two important pieces.
Texas A&M transfer Alex Robinson will be available during the second semester and will be a welcome addition on a roster that desperately needs a more reliable point guard. And Kenrich Williams led the Horned Frogs in rebounds in 2014-15 before missing the entire 2015-16 season due to knee surgery.
That duo should make for one heck of a boost to TCU's talent level, and virtually every other Big 12 team (except for Kansas) appears to be losing more talent than it's gaining. Again, we're not expecting a 25-win season. However, a 7-11 conference record after 13 nonconference wins—TCU and Dixon don't exactly schedule aggressively—could be in the cards.
9. Jerod Haase, Stanford
3 of 11
After eight good, not great, years of Johnny Dawkins, it's time to find out what Jerod Haase can do in Palo Alto.
He received an increase in pay by transitioning from UAB to Stanford, but his chances of reaching the 2017 NCAA tournament may have plummeted, depending on what Rosco Allen decides to do. Stanford's leader in points and rebounds is currently testing the draft waters, so it might be another four weeks until we know the full scope of what Haase is inheriting.
Either way, the Cardinal should be competitive, provided players stay healthy this year.
Reid Travis was Stanford's big fish in the 2014 recruiting class, but he missed nine games as a freshman and 22 games as a sophomore, both due to stress fractures in his leg. Marcus Allen missed the first two games of the 2015-16 season with a stress fracture in his foot, and freshman forward Marcus Sheffield played sparingly for the final three weeks of this past season due to an ankle injury.
Keep those three guys, Dorian Pickens and Michael Humphrey on the court along with 247Sports 4-star recruits Trevor Stanback and Kodye Pugh, and the Cardinal should be in good shape. If Allen also decides to come back, even better.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
8. Brian Kennedy, NJIT
4 of 11
Hats off to Jim Engles for transforming NJIT from a team that lost 51 consecutive games to one that won at least 20 games in each of the past two seasons, but it's Brian Kennedy who will likely get the praise for leading the Highlanders to their first NCAA tournament.
They lose starting point guard and third-leading scorer Ky Howard to graduation, but most of the rest of the gang is back, including Damon Lynn.
Not since Marshall Henderson has anyone shot three-pointers quite like Lynn. With 350 attempts in each of the past two seasons, he and Buddy Hield (322 in 2015-16) are the only players in either of those years to attempt at least 320.
Unfortunately, Lynn only made 33.1 percent of them this past season, which kept NJIT from reaching its full potential. In the Atlantic Sun tournament loss to Stetson, Lynn shot 1-of-12, and the entire team shot 2-of-26. If he can shoot closer to 40 percent as a senior, the Highlanders should have plenty of offense to overcome Florida Gulf Coast for Atlantic Sun supremacy.
7. Chris Beard, Texas Tech
5 of 11
The coaching carousel is always a bit crazy, but Chris Beard's ride was especially so this offseason.
After leading Arkansas-Little Rock to a 30-5 season, Beard accepted the head coaching vacancy at UNLV on March 27. But then Josh Pastner took the job at Georgia Tech on April 8, and Tubby Smith took Pastner's old spot at Memphis on April 14, leaving an opening at Texas Tech—where Beard was the associate head coach from 2001-11. That series of dominoes led to Beard leaving UNLV to go back to Texas Tech on April 15.
Now that he's found a home, what will he do with it?
Texas Tech was one of the surprise success stories this past season, going 19-13 after averaging 19.8 losses over the previous five seasons. But the key to the Red Raiders' resurgence was retaining just about everyone aside from an inefficient shooting guard (Robert Turner).
This offseason, they're losing their two leading scorers: Devaugntah Williams and Toddrick Gotcher. They do still have five players who averaged at least 8.5 points per game last season, but Keenan Evans is the only guard in that bunch. It's going to take some creative coaching, but a man who spent this past season perfecting the art of playing almost entirely with guards has a good shot.
6. Brad Underwood, Oklahoma State
6 of 11
Far be it from us to question the coaching ability of a guy with a career winning percentage of .864, but the increase in competition level in going from the Southland Conference to the Big 12 is about as drastic as it gets in college basketball.
Brad Underwood did a sensational job with Stephen F. Austin over the past three years, leading the Lumberjacks to 89 wins—including one each in the 2014 and 2016 NCAA tournaments. He helped take guys like Jacob Parker and Thomas Walkup from unrecruited no-names to NCAA glory.
Can he do the same with this Cowboys roster?
Senior shooting guard Phil Forte lasted less than three games before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. Freshman phenom Jawun Evans had his season cut short by a shoulder injury in Oklahoma State's first game in February. It's hardly a surprise that the Cowboys lost 10 of their final 11 games without their best backcourt weapons.
If those two guards are healthy enough for a full 2016-17 season, Underwood and Oklahoma State could surprise a lot of people. It's an undersized roster with 6'8" Chris Olivier and 7'0" Anthony Allen Jr. both graduating, but playing small is nothing new for Underwood. Not once in his three seasons at SFA did a single player taller than 6'7" average more than 4.1 points per game.
5. Kyle Keller, Stephen F. Austin
7 of 11
It's time to find out whether Stephen F. Austin was great in recent seasons because of Brad Underwood or because of its "strength" of schedule. Underwood went 89-14 in three years with the Lumberjacks, but he had just a 6-11 record against teams in the KenPom Top 125. And don't expect the level of competition to be any stiffer in Kyle Keller's first year at the helm, either.
Good thing, too, because there's an entire army of Lumberjacks to replace this offseason. In addition to star player Thomas Walkup, Stephen F. Austin loses Clide Geffrard, Demetrious Floyd, Trey Pinkney and Jared Johnson to graduation. That quintet combined to score more than two-thirds of the team's points while playing a combined total of 115.9 minutes per game.
Southland Conference schedule or not, that's a lot of holes to fill.
For it to happen, Ty Charles and T.J. Holyfield will need to do some heavy lifting. Both forwards did a little bit of everything last season, but they'll need to add leadership to their plate as the leading scorers among returning players. They'll likely battle each other and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's Rashawn Thomas for Southland Player of the Year honors.
4. Robert Ehsan, UAB
8 of 11
While others mourned the absence of Cinderella candidates like Monmouth, Saint Mary's and Valparaiso, UAB might have been the minor conference team most likely to pull off an NCAA tournament upset last season—if it hadn't been soundly beaten in the Conference USA quarterfinals.
The Blazers also proceeded to get blown out by BYU in the first round of the NIT, but they ended the regular season with a 26-5 record, building on the momentum of their shocking 2015 NCAA tournament win over Iowa State.
They only lose one player from last year's roster, but it's a crucial one. Robert Brown led UAB in minutes played and points scored while shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range. He was also the leading scorer the previous season, so the Blazers have grown accustomed to falling in line behind him.
The sooner that new head coach Robert Ehsan can convince someone to step up and be the new leader, the better. Whether that's William Lee, Chris Cokley or Nick Norton, there are options for what should still be the team to beat in C-USA.
3. Paul Weir, New Mexico State
9 of 11
We just learned on Tuesday afternoon that former associate head coach Paul Weir has been promoted to head coach of New Mexico State, per the team's official website, but anyone with a pulse would have cracked the top five on this list with this roster.
The Aggies went 23-11 last season, led predominantly by Pascal Siakam. At 20.2 points, 11.7 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game, he led the entire Western Athletic Conference in all three categories.
And he was only a sophomore.
In fact, there wasn't a single senior on last year's roster for New Mexico State. Heck, Ian Baker was the only junior on the roster who ranked in the top 10 in scoring, so Weir is inheriting a team that should be strong for at least the next two seasons.
Better yet, the other "contenders" in the WAC are getting weaker. Cal State Bakersfield went 11-3 in conference play last season, but its top two scorers graduate. Grand Canyon loses two of its top three after also going 11-3. No other team played better than .500 in conference play.
Weir isn't just getting a team that should make the tournament. New Mexico State might be the most likely team in the country to go undefeated in conference play next season.
2. Bryce Drew, Vanderbilt
10 of 11
Wade Baldwin IV and Damian Jones have both declared for the draft and signed with an agent, but there's still plenty to like about what Bryce Drew is inheriting at Vanderbilt.
For starters, there are solid shooters on this roster. Matthew Fisher-Davis shot 44.6 percent from three-point range, and Jeff Roberson wasn't far behind him at 43.5 percent. Freshmen Camron Justice (21-of-54) and Joe Toye (9-of-21) also flashed some long-range talent in limited opportunities. And Riley LaChance and Luke Kornet aren't afraid to let it fly, either.
Vanderbilt was also a strong defensive team. A good chunk of that can be chalked up to Jones' blocks, but Kornet was a much better shot-blocker, and it was the perimeter defense that set the Commodores apart, ranking third in the nation in three-point defense and 14th in defensive assist rate, per KenPom.
Their biggest problem last season seemed to be a lack of motivation. Vanderbilt had more than enough talent to do incredible things, but it never seemed interested in doing so. If Drew can light more of a fire inside of them, the Commodores could be one of the top challengers to Kentucky in the SEC.
1. Kevin Stallings, Pittsburgh
11 of 11
Despite squandering a great opportunity with Vanderbilt last season, Kevin Stallings once again finds himself in a good situation at Pittsburgh.
The Panthers do lose a few key seniors—most notably starting point guard James Robinson—but there's still a ton of talent on this roster. In Michael Young, Jamel Artis, Sheldon Jeter, Chris Jones and Ryan Luther, they have five frontcourt players who averaged at least 5.0 points per game in 2015-16. And in Cameron Johnson and Damon Wilson, they have a pair of guards who played just well enough as freshmen to inspire hope for breakout sophomore campaigns.
Stallings has never shied away from encouraging his teams to shoot. Vanderbilt attempted at least 36.6 percent of its field goals from beyond the arc in each of the past six seasons. Five times in the past 15 years, that rate eclipsed 41 percent. And most everyone left on Pitt's roster likes to let it fly. Even Young attempted 12 triples last season as the team's 6'9" center.
With the proper infusion of his offensive scheme, Stallings could lead Pittsburgh to at least 13 conference wins and an NCAA tournament seed of No. 7 or better for the first time since 2011.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
